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Compassionate-Kneejerk

@Compassionate-Kneejerk

#1,23869

0x95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04

202d· 3566 markets · 7883 tradesVol: $60,419,3332026-07-12T08:57
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

69
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 92%20/20
Profit Factor 0.05x0/15
Sharpe 0.55510/15
Sortino 15.35610/10
HHI 8608/10
Profit Days 97%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Compassionate-Kneejerk is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #1238 globally by net profit with $154,779.04 earned over 547 days and nearly 7,900 trades across 721 markets. Their portfolio value stands at $451,224.53, reflecting consistent engagement and a solid presence in the prediction market. Despite a high win rate of 94.2%, their profit factor is low at 0.05, indicating small average gains relative to losses. The trader’s Sharpe ratio of 0.56 suggests moderate risk-adjusted returns, while the bot score of 45/100 points to a hybrid approach blending automated and manual trading.

Compassionate-Kneejerk primarily focuses on high-frequency trading with a sniper style, as indicated by badges like “Sniper” and “DCA Master.” They avoid weather markets entirely and hold a low sell percentage of 16%, implying a preference for holding positions rather than quick flipping. Their equity trend is stable and flat, showing neither aggressive growth nor decline. The trader’s timing appears disciplined with no recorded drawdown duration, suggesting effective risk management and consistent entry/exit points over time.

The key strength of Compassionate-Kneejerk lies in their high win rate and stable equity curve, which demonstrates reliability and disciplined trade execution on Polymarket. However, the low profit factor may indicate that while they win often, the magnitude of profits per trade is limited, possibly capping overall returns. The semi-bot trading style might offer advantages in speed but could also introduce risks if automation is not fully optimized. Overall, their profile suggests a steady but conservative trading approach with room for improving profitability.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 92%
Profitable
PnL $+154,779
DCA Master
avg 9.2 entries/market
Win Streak
120 wins in a row
Whale
$6,258,999
Consistent
75/77 days
High Roller
$11,442/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#708$71,244Vol: $36,621,473
CRYPTO#1,054$37,698Vol: $5,914,976
💰 FINANCE#166$23,837Vol: $5,115,547
🎭 CULTURE#807,233$-23,705Vol: $4,401,695
📢 MENTIONS#137$14,264Vol: $3,862,008
📈 ECONOMICS#593$9,693Vol: $1,769,661
SPORTS#1,726,969$-278Vol: $952,402
🌤️ WEATHER#531$3,621Vol: $608,864
💻 TECH#428$4,104Vol: $473,565

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$154,779
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$60,419,333
Total Redeem
$1,872,972
Portfolio
$451,225
Predictions
3566
total markets
Trades
6624B / 1259S
Daily Volume
$11,442
Account Age
202d
since Dec 31, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-41
Vol: $9,010
Week
$3,578
Vol: $9,010
Month
$4,002
Vol: $211,106
All Time
$154,779
Vol: $60,419,333

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
94%
286W / 18L events
Realized PnL
$240,562
Win Rate
94%
467W / 29L
Profit Factor
0.05x
Avg Win
$349
Avg Loss
$-120,919

Top Winners

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?$56,101
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?$14,774
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$10,228
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?$9,438
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$8,049
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June?$6,211
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?$5,966
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$4,899
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?$3,665
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?$3,572

Top Losers

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$-1,139,037
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$-930,624
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$-238,016
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?$-203,514
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?$-199,365
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$-118,306
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?$-102,588
Will the US strike Iran next?$-99,800
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$-87,838
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?$-83,467

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.555
Sortino
15.357
HHI
860
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.575
Kelly %
35.9%
Half-Kelly
17.9%
Top-1 market
19.8%
Top-5 markets
51.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
40.9
Active
Markets / Day
3.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
25.0m
between trades
Night Trading
24%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.49
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 132s — typical for humanSize CV 6.49 — diverse, typical for human24% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.06 — human randomness41 trades/day — suspiciously high459 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
9.2
Active DCA
<=1
265 entries
<=2
395 entries
<=5
543 entries
<=10
618 entries
<=20
668 entries
<=50
692 entries
>50
29 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.7%
Mid (20-55c)8.6%
High (>55c)89.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 25.4%

Los Angeles$10,228
Miami$659
Seattle$49
Spacey$15
London$8
Hong Kong$7
New York City$2
Seoul$1
July$0
Other$-3,354,824

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.9
Events covered
388

Single bracket

<=1
273 brackets
<=2
321 brackets
<=3
347 brackets
<=4
362 brackets
<=5
369 brackets
<=8
381 brackets
>8
7 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/31/2025, 12:44:33 PM1 trades$100 min
12/31/2025, 1:16:11 PM3 trades$754 min
12/31/2025, 1:47:35 PM2 trades$540 min
12/31/2025, 2:24:33 PM2 trades$420 min
1/3/2026, 8:57:35 AM2 trades$3,8081 min
1/5/2026, 1:44:01 AM1 trades$7810 min
1/5/2026, 2:25:55 AM2 trades$1,0811 min
1/5/2026, 2:34:57 AM1 trades$1,7100 min
1/5/2026, 2:40:03 AM1 trades$90 min
1/5/2026, 2:54:43 AM1 trades$1,0410 min
1/5/2026, 3:03:03 AM9 trades$2,82910 min
1/5/2026, 3:21:57 AM2 trades$2,7560 min
1/5/2026, 3:30:05 AM4 trades$1931 min
1/5/2026, 3:39:19 AM1 trades$90 min
1/5/2026, 4:46:57 AM1 trades$890 min
1/5/2026, 7:33:11 AM1 trades$900 min
1/5/2026, 7:49:29 AM2 trades$9662 min
1/5/2026, 7:56:33 AM3 trades$2706 min
1/5/2026, 8:15:51 AM2 trades$183 min
1/5/2026, 8:24:39 AM1 trades$90 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
01-31
03-01
04-15
06-02
07-30
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
16% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 9.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.9 br/event