Polydata

@432614799197

#1945

0xdc876e6873772d38716fda7f2452a78d426d7ab6

143d· 4548 markets · 32254 tradesVol: $185,485,9572026-05-26T09:01
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

45
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 14%0/20
Profit Factor 1.28x6/15
Sharpe 0.1563/15
Sortino 0.3403/10
EV $+0.27910/10
HHI 10810/10
Profit Days 53%6/10
DD/Peak 36%7/10

Summary

Trader 432614799197 is a highly active participant on Polymarket, ranking 19th on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of over $4.5 million. Over 83 days, they executed more than 32,000 trades across 1,776 markets, accumulating a total volume approaching $185.5 million. Despite the substantial activity, their portfolio value currently stands at zero, indicating realized gains rather than open positions.

The trading style of 432614799197 is characterized by a contrarian approach, as suggested by their badges and a low sell percentage of 0%, reflecting a strong tendency to hold positions ("Diamond Hands"). Their strategy leans heavily on automated trading, supported by a high bot score of 75/100. They maintain a moderate risk profile with a profit factor of 0.65 and a Sharpe ratio of 0.16, signaling modest risk-adjusted returns. The trader’s timing appears consistent, with no significant drawdown durations and a stable equity trend, implying disciplined entry and exit points.

Key strengths for 432614799197 include a high win rate of 78.5% and the ability to sustain flat equity trends without prolonged drawdowns. Their automated and contrarian style suits volatile markets by capitalizing on mean reversion or market inefficiencies. However, the relatively low profit factor and Sharpe ratio may indicate limited upside relative to risk, and a zero portfolio value suggests all positions are closed, potentially missing ongoing opportunities. This balance of steady profits with cautious risk management defines their presence on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Profitable
PnL $+4,526,176
Contrarian
62% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
DCA Master
avg 18.2 entries/market
Bot
Score 75/100
Win Streak
23 wins in a row
Whale
$31,908,796
High Roller
$384,443/day

Categories

1
SPORTS#9$4,526,176Vol: $185,485,957

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$4,526,176
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$185,485,957
Total Redeem
$5,080,538
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
4548
total markets
Trades
32254B / 0S
Daily Volume
$384,443
Account Age
143d
since Jan 2, 2026

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
21%
213W / 799L events
Realized PnL
$34,283,091
Win Rate
78%
164W / 45L
Profit Factor
0.65x
Avg Win
$13,112
Avg Loss
$-73,999

Top Winners

Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-03-08?$531,405
AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5$109,172
First Round Pool D: Israel vs. Nicaragua$106,491
Hornets vs. Suns$104,575
Will US Lecce win on 2026-03-08?$101,099
Bruins vs. Penguins$75,802
Bruins vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5$61,378
Spread: Hornets (-4.5)$55,557
UFC 326: Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Pr$42,975
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-08?$39,639

Top Losers

Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18?$-773,411
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-08?$-708,465
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07?$-685,380
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24?$-405,438
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-15?$-181,975
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04?$-120,722
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-03-07?$-95,564
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-17?$-89,328
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Mai$-39,368
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-25?$-31,297

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.156
Sortino
0.340
HHI
108
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.279
Kelly %
51.9%
Half-Kelly
25.9%
Top-1 market
3.4%
Top-5 markets
16.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
505.7
Very active
Markets / Day
27.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
14s
between trades
Avg Gap
3.7m
between trades
Night Trading
19%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.42
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
7.2

Bot Detection

#6
75
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 14s — suspiciously fastSize CV 5.42 — diverse, typical for human19% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.23 — human randomness506 trades/day — automation28 markets/day — mass coverage1826 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
18.2
Heavy DCA
<=1
366 entries
<=2
579 entries
<=5
896 entries
<=10
1164 entries
<=20
1421 entries
<=50
1623 entries
>50
153 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.3%
Mid (20-55c)82.3%
High (>55c)16.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 22.8%

Milan$109,172
Miami$10,727
Chicago$4,609
Austin$3,719
Toronto$2,987
Los Angeles$28
Paris$0
Seattle$0
Atlanta$0
New York City$0
Other$-635,437
Madrid$-675,376

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.9
Events covered
939

Single bracket

<=1
546 brackets
<=2
747 brackets
<=3
834 brackets
<=4
883 brackets
<=5
909 brackets
<=8
933 brackets
>8
6 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/5/2026, 12:18:03 AM8 trades$2,5144 min
1/5/2026, 12:28:19 AM8 trades$6,6591 min
1/5/2026, 1:18:43 AM4 trades$3170 min
1/5/2026, 1:25:25 AM10 trades$1,1932 min
1/5/2026, 2:56:49 AM13 trades$8293 min
1/5/2026, 2:14:47 PM16 trades$6183 min
1/5/2026, 2:33:53 PM3 trades$582 min
1/5/2026, 2:47:09 PM31 trades$543 min
1/5/2026, 3:01:31 PM56 trades$5225 min
1/5/2026, 4:19:47 PM1 trades$40 min
1/5/2026, 4:49:39 PM2 trades$3472 min
1/5/2026, 4:58:37 PM1 trades$10 min
1/5/2026, 5:07:49 PM67 trades$69511 min
1/5/2026, 5:32:51 PM8 trades$2083 min
1/5/2026, 6:06:21 PM2 trades$30 min
1/5/2026, 6:18:55 PM2 trades$164 min
1/5/2026, 6:30:21 PM22 trades$613 min
1/5/2026, 8:19:03 PM1 trades$2,5570 min
1/5/2026, 8:24:41 PM1 trades$230 min
1/5/2026, 8:30:47 PM6 trades$1455 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-07
01-18
01-29
02-09
02-21
03-04
03-16

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 18.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.9 br/event