Polydata

@Academic-Elicit

#1,976,78635

0x139e054b6d98dbedb2043e3e799db551350ba5de

98d· 2725 markets · 2469 tradesVol: $59,0032026-07-03T02:21
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

35
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 0.63x0/15
HHI 5210/10
Profit Days 52%5/10
DD/Peak 8131%0/10

Summary

Academic-Elicit is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having executed 2,469 trades across 576 markets over 101 days. Despite a substantial total volume of $59,003, the trader's net PnL stands at negative $17.83, placing them at rank #1,976,786 on the global leaderboard. Their portfolio value currently sits at $32.14, reflecting a below-average Smart Score of 35/100 and a negative Sharpe Ratio of -0.21.

The trading style of Academic-Elicit is characterized by a preference for weather-related markets, which make up 91% of their activity. Their win rate is relatively decent at 59.3%, though the profit factor of 0.63 suggests losses outweigh gains. The trader tends to hold positions rather than frequently selling, with only 23% sell percentage, indicating a moderate risk appetite and a tendency toward longer-term or trend-following strategies. The upward equity trend hints at some recent improvement in performance.

Academic-Elicit’s strengths lie in their consistent engagement and specialization in weather markets, supported by badges like "Weather Pro" and "Sniper" that imply precise timing. However, their below-average Smart Score and negative profitability raise concerns regarding risk management and strategy effectiveness. The absence of drawdown duration suggests limited prolonged losses, but the overall negative return and low profit factor highlight areas for potential improvement.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

3
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Weather Pro
91% weather
Win Streak
81 wins in a row

Categories

5
🌤️ WEATHER#254,893$-23Vol: $49,134
SPORTS#1,426,759$-22Vol: $4,148
CRYPTO#110,610$67Vol: $1,354
🏛️ POLITICS#890,235$-1Vol: $16
💰 FINANCE#80,601$4Vol: $8

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-18
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$59,003
Total Redeem
$1,602
Portfolio
$32
Predictions
2725
total markets
Trades
1899B / 570S
Daily Volume
$56
Account Age
98d
since Mar 27, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-76
Vol: $205
Week
$-72
Vol: $2,011
Month
$-79
Vol: $1,938
All Time
$-18
Vol: $59,003

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
226W / 2L events
Realized PnL
$3,804
Win Rate
59%
272W / 187L
Profit Factor
0.63x
Avg Win
$6
Avg Loss
$-13

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on May 14?$123
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5?$68
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F $62
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May$60
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 16?$52
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 1?$42
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14?$38
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 17?$35
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 14?$33
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 14?$32

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 1?$-100
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on Apri$-76
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 11?$-70
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F $-64
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 27?$-64
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 7?$-57
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 1 Winner$-51
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 10?$-50
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 8?$-50
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 7?$-50

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.213
Sortino
-0.223
HHI
52
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.185
Kelly %
6.6%
Half-Kelly
3.3%
Top-1 market
1.8%
Top-5 markets
8.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
28.6
Active
Markets / Day
6.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
9:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
34.8m
between trades
Night Trading
18%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.80
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 107s — typical for humanSize CV 1.80 — diverse, typical for human18% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.13 — human randomness29 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 9:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.3
Moderate DCA
<=1
203 entries
<=2
314 entries
<=5
468 entries
<=10
565 entries
<=20
576 entries
<=50
576 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)8.6%
Mid (20-55c)38.9%
High (>55c)52.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 33%

Seoul$128
Kuala Lumpur$120
Other$104
Warsaw$53
Panama City$52
Chongqing$46
Houston$31
Cape Town$19
Tokyo$18
Tel Aviv$7
Mexico City$7
Paris$6
Austin$4
Karachi$3
Milan$2
Busan$0
San Francisco$-3
Moscow$-9

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
389

Single bracket

<=1
280 brackets
<=2
338 brackets
<=3
374 brackets
<=4
388 brackets
<=5
389 brackets
<=8
389 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/7/2026, 4:40:49 PM1 trades$10 min
4/7/2026, 9:58:21 PM4 trades$41 min
4/12/2026, 12:00:47 AM4 trades$43 min
4/13/2026, 6:37:25 PM1 trades$10 min
4/13/2026, 6:53:35 PM2 trades$20 min
4/16/2026, 4:17:58 PM1 trades$10 min
4/16/2026, 10:26:38 PM2 trades$20 min
4/17/2026, 11:08:58 PM1 trades$10 min
4/18/2026, 1:12:10 AM1 trades$10 min
4/19/2026, 1:49:12 PM1 trades$150 min
4/20/2026, 10:57:18 AM2 trades$1740 min
4/20/2026, 11:05:50 AM1 trades$10 min
4/22/2026, 2:24:20 AM1 trades$40 min
4/22/2026, 10:32:38 AM2 trades$84 min
4/22/2026, 12:35:34 PM2 trades$1840 min
4/24/2026, 5:18:00 AM2 trades$200 min
4/24/2026, 7:19:58 AM4 trades$1050 min
4/24/2026, 7:30:06 AM1 trades$70 min
4/24/2026, 7:41:46 AM1 trades$120 min
4/24/2026, 9:30:52 AM1 trades$100 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-07
04-30
05-13
05-26
06-04
06-20
07-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
91.3% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
23.1% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event