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Active-Hypothermia

@Active-Hypothermia

#1,46584

0xc3cd1d612bbf9fbf80da5a9bff0b0470cb46816c

592d· 5168 markets · 30425 tradesVol: $42,273,544 @buckyandlucky2026-06-26T16:15
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

84
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 51%10/20
Profit Factor 26.17x15/15
Sharpe 0.4328/15
Sortino 201.59110/10
EV $+25.17110/10
HHI 10610/10
Profit Days 77%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Active-Hypothermia is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #1465 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 852 days, they have executed 30,425 trades across 395 markets, achieving a net profit of $116,979.80 on a total volume exceeding $42 million. Their Smart Score of 84/100 indicates strong trading performance, supported by a stable portfolio value of around $20,000 and a Sharpe ratio of 0.43.

This trader prefers a high-frequency, diversified approach with a contrarian style, as evidenced by their badges and nearly even sell percentage (48%). Despite a low win rate of 6.2%, Active-Hypothermia appears to engage in lottery-style bets with a semi-automated strategy, blending bot and manual inputs. Their moderate Sharpe ratio and zero max drawdown duration suggest disciplined risk management and quick recovery from losses.

Active-Hypothermia’s strengths lie in consistency and volume-driven profits, leveraging a contrarian edge in Polymarket’s diverse markets. However, their low win rate and a profit factor of zero may point to vulnerability in market timing or occasional unprofitable streaks. Maintaining stable equity amid high trade counts highlights resilience but also signals potential risks if market conditions shift unfavorably.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Profitable
PnL $+116,980
Lottery Player
37% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
54% entries <$0.50
Whale
$666,017
Consistent
69/90 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

9
SPORTS#1,506$34,965Vol: $25,451,948
🏛️ POLITICS#755$66,178Vol: $9,003,422
CRYPTO#7,970$5,874Vol: $2,982,095
🎭 CULTURE#2,437$2,707Vol: $1,963,831
📈 ECONOMICS#1,547$2,392Vol: $1,185,762
💰 FINANCE#1,451$3,335Vol: $730,720
💻 TECH#1,955$562Vol: $478,072
🌤️ WEATHER#23,452$8Vol: $39,433
📢 MENTIONS#127,208$-12Vol: $3,934

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$116,980
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$42,273,544
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$20,068
Predictions
5168
total markets
Trades
15962B / 14463S
Daily Volume
$729
Account Age
592d
since Dec 2, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-98
Vol: $80,558
Week
$-3,142
Vol: $660,065
Month
$3,424
Vol: $5,194,498
All Time
$116,980
Vol: $42,273,544

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
74%
167W / 60L events
Realized PnL
$625,602
Win Rate
6%
3W / 45L
Profit Factor
0x
Avg Win
$80
Avg Loss
$-1,788

Top Winners

Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$133
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$95
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 20$13

Top Losers

Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series?$-7,318
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series?$-6,725
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election$-5,108
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championshi$-5,049
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-4,628
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C$-4,436
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World $-4,009
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-3,873
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?$-3,746
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?$-3,318

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.432
Sortino
201.591
HHI
106
Diversified
EV per $1
$25.171
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
2.5%
Top-5 markets
11.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
72.7
Very active
Markets / Day
0.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
13.4m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.84
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.1

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 174s — typical for humanSize CV 1.84 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.86 — human randomness73 trades/day — mass trading810 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
44
Heavy DCA
<=1
65 entries
<=2
112 entries
<=5
170 entries
<=10
209 entries
<=20
244 entries
<=50
283 entries
>50
80 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)37.5%
Mid (20-55c)18.4%
High (>55c)44.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 24.2%

Atlanta$0
San Francisco$0
Netanyahu$0
Miami$0
Seattle$0
McKenna$0
São Paulo$0
Son$0
Los Angeles$-1,044
Toronto$-1,531
Houston$-2,609
Chicago$-2,724
Dallas$-3,265
Denver$-3,318
Other$-65,736

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.8
Events covered
143

Moderate coverage

<=1
80 brackets
<=2
100 brackets
<=3
115 brackets
<=4
123 brackets
<=5
126 brackets
<=8
135 brackets
>8
8 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/4/2025, 7:49:19 AM1 trades$110 min
5/4/2025, 2:04:29 PM1 trades$30 min
5/4/2025, 2:57:57 PM1 trades$20 min
5/4/2025, 3:05:55 PM1 trades$70 min
5/4/2025, 3:15:12 PM1 trades$00 min
5/6/2025, 3:36:34 PM1 trades$220 min
5/8/2025, 9:25:37 PM1 trades$240 min
5/9/2025, 9:28:03 PM1 trades$220 min
5/10/2025, 5:05:03 AM1 trades$260 min
5/14/2025, 4:48:57 PM1 trades$140 min
5/14/2025, 7:29:24 PM1 trades$50 min
5/15/2025, 3:06:11 AM1 trades$40 min
5/15/2025, 7:32:52 AM1 trades$220 min
5/15/2025, 8:44:18 AM1 trades$240 min
5/15/2025, 2:48:57 PM1 trades$300 min
6/25/2025, 5:06:35 PM1 trades$260 min
6/27/2025, 10:42:17 AM1 trades$280 min
6/30/2025, 11:43:28 AM1 trades$260 min
6/30/2025, 11:55:34 AM2 trades$301 min
6/30/2025, 1:27:20 PM1 trades$160 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
06-30
04-12
06-16
08-11
10-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
47.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 44/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.8 br/event