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@Active-Overheard

#2,869,3475

0xb3505fc6829167652e48111a70ed21b8fe2eef37

2071d· 15 markets · 405 tradesVol: $184,1812026-06-17T22:33
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

5
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 6%0/20
Profit Factor 0.09x0/15
HHI 14585/10
Profit Days 10%0/10

Summary

Active-Overheard is a relatively low-ranked trader on Polymarket, positioned at #2,869,347 on the global PnL leaderboard. With 405 trades over 1,868 days, this trader has a net loss of $12,466.42 and a total trading volume of $184,181. Their activity level is moderate but consistent, though their portfolio value currently stands at zero, reflecting ongoing challenges in profitability.

This trader exhibits a contrarian and high-risk style, as suggested by their badges and a very low win rate of 6.7%, alongside a profit factor of 0.13. Active-Overheard trades manually, with minimal selling (1%), indicating a strong holding bias. They focus on a limited set of 15 markets, steering clear of weather-related questions. The Sharpe ratio of -0.69 points to negative risk-adjusted returns, and their equity trend is steadily declining over time, suggesting their timing and market selection have not been effective.

Active-Overheard’s main strength lies in their persistence and willingness to maintain positions long-term, as indicated by the "Diamond Hands" badge. However, their poor performance metrics, including a negative Sharpe ratio and substantial losses, highlight significant risks. The low Smart Score further suggests limited trading sophistication, which could expose them to ongoing downside on Polymarket unless their strategy evolves.

Badges

3
Lottery Player
91% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
99% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
1% sell

Categories

2
CRYPTO#1,586,029$-9,333Vol: $164,181
💻 TECH#2,198$467Vol: $20,000

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-12,466
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$184,181
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
15
total markets
Trades
402B / 3S
Daily Volume
$8
Account Age
2071d
since Nov 4, 2020

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
7%
1W / 13L events
Realized PnL
$-12,466
Win Rate
7%
1W / 14L
Profit Factor
0.13x
Avg Win
$1,267
Avg Loss
$-722

Top Winners

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?$1,267

Top Losers

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?$-3,120
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?$-1,693
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 4?$-800
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?$-800
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 November 24-30?$-789
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 November 24-30?$-760
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 4?$-621
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$-584
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 10?$-370
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 10AM ET$-207

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.694
Sortino
-0.686
HHI
1458
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.627
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
25.2%
Top-5 markets
70.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
12.9
Active
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
20s
between trades
Avg Gap
11.0m
between trades
Night Trading
4%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.88
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
6.0

Bot Detection

#6
10
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 20s — typical for humanSize CV 3.88 — diverse, typical for human4% at night — normal sleep pattern21/24 hours — extended daySession CV 1.03 — human randomness13 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
26.8
Heavy DCA
<=1
4 entries
<=2
5 entries
<=5
6 entries
<=10
8 entries
<=20
9 entries
<=50
13 entries
>50
2 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)91.3%
Mid (20-55c)7.2%
High (>55c)1.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 98.5%

Other$-8,847

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
12

Single bracket

<=1
10 brackets
<=2
11 brackets
<=3
12 brackets
<=4
12 brackets
<=5
12 brackets
<=8
12 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/26/2025, 10:03:59 AM11 trades$2,52612 min
11/26/2025, 10:29:23 AM5 trades$23810 min
11/26/2025, 10:54:07 AM2 trades$532 min
11/26/2025, 11:01:45 AM9 trades$896 min
11/26/2025, 11:14:07 AM2 trades$1533 min
11/26/2025, 11:26:11 AM1 trades$2560 min
11/26/2025, 11:31:45 AM2 trades$1,5411 min
11/27/2025, 10:38:35 PM164 trades$5845 min
11/29/2025, 10:28:01 PM1 trades$7350 min
11/29/2025, 10:44:16 PM3 trades$15 min
11/29/2025, 11:04:36 PM6 trades$2,8157 min
11/29/2025, 11:21:40 PM1 trades$10 min
11/29/2025, 11:28:22 PM1 trades$20 min
11/29/2025, 11:33:24 PM1 trades$110 min
11/29/2025, 11:49:08 PM1 trades$00 min
11/30/2025, 2:51:45 AM3 trades$73 min
11/30/2025, 2:59:39 AM1 trades$00 min
11/30/2025, 5:07:17 AM1 trades$00 min
11/30/2025, 5:56:47 AM1 trades$1390 min
11/30/2025, 6:15:41 AM2 trades$2732 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
11-20
11-27
12-01
12-04
12-07
12-10
12-27
12-31
01-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 26.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event