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@Affectionate-Region

#2,686,71322

0x6aabd02b7f3fdb663517352ca8a9a333745bead7

320d· 118 markets · 189 tradesVol: $27,2042026-06-17T15:05
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

22
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 46%8/20
Profit Factor 0.85x1/15
HHI 10810/10
Profit Days 44%4/10
DD/Peak 276%0/10

Summary

Affectionate-Region is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 189 trades across 118 markets over 284 days. Despite a high win rate of 69.2% and a solid profit factor of 2.67, their net PnL stands at -$569.69, placing them quite low on the global leaderboard at rank #2,686,713. Their portfolio value is currently zero, and their overall smart score is below average at 22/100, reflecting challenges in translating wins into lasting profitability.

This trader predominantly focuses on weather markets, accounting for 91% of their trades, indicating a specialized niche preference. Their trading style appears manual, as evidenced by a low bot score of 5/100, and they maintain a relatively cautious risk profile, with a 34% sell rate and no prolonged drawdown durations. However, their Sharpe ratio is negative at -0.13, suggesting that risk-adjusted returns are suboptimal, and the equity trend is downward, signaling recent struggles in performance.

Affectionate-Region's strengths include a consistent win streak and expertise in weather markets, as highlighted by their top badges. However, the declining equity trend and negative net profit raise concerns about their risk management and trade sizing. While their strategy yields frequent wins, the inability to sustain profitability may indicate issues in cutting losses or capital allocation that could hinder long-term success on Polymarket.

Badges

2
Weather Pro
91% weather
Win Streak
16 wins in a row

Categories

5
🌤️ WEATHER#278,539$-638Vol: $25,586
🏛️ POLITICS#54,611$132Vol: $1,455
🎭 CULTURE#744,449$-50Vol: $79
SPORTS#1,384,928$-24Vol: $63
CRYPTO#226,138$10Vol: $20

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-570
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$27,204
Total Redeem
$755
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
118
total markets
Trades
124B / 65S
Daily Volume
$29
Account Age
320d
since Aug 22, 2025

Periods

#2
Month
$-92
Vol: $1,918
All Time
$-570
Vol: $27,204

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
47%
54W / 61L events
Realized PnL
$1,989
Win Rate
69%
54W / 24L
Profit Factor
2.67x
Avg Win
$61
Avg Loss
$-51

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $675 (32.9% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 30?$347
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 29?$174
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 26?$154
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 3?$134
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 28?$133
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 3?$131
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 1?$131
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 24?$115
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 29?$99
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F $95

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on Apr$-100
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 28?$-98
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 27?$-98
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 27?$-97
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 27?$-97
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 86°F or higher on April$-76
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April$-74
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 5?$-71
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 27?$-64
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 7?$-53

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.131
Sortino
-0.210
HHI
108
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.220
Kelly %
38.4%
Half-Kelly
19.2%
Top-1 market
1.6%
Top-5 markets
6.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.7
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
17.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.6h
between trades
Night Trading
3%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.56
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
MEDIUM
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1072s — typical for humanSize CV 0.57 — diverse, typical for human3% at night — normal sleep pattern20/24 hours — extended daySession CV 1.36 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.1
Single entry
<=1
112 entries
<=2
118 entries
<=5
118 entries
<=10
118 entries
<=20
118 entries
<=50
118 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)4.8%
Mid (20-55c)54.8%
High (>55c)40.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 98%

Singapore$364
London$354
Madrid$345
Paris$231
New York City$223
San Francisco$139
Shanghai$134
Buenos Aires$131
Moscow$103
Houston$76
Sao Paulo$74
Warsaw$53
Munich$47
Los Angeles$43
Seoul$41
Milan$23
Hong Kong$18
Miami$11

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
115

Single bracket

<=1
112 brackets
<=2
115 brackets
<=3
115 brackets
<=4
115 brackets
<=5
115 brackets
<=8
115 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
8/27/2025, 4:00:15 PM2 trades$752 min
9/8/2025, 3:47:58 PM1 trades$150 min
3/20/2026, 4:31:17 PM1 trades$110 min
3/20/2026, 6:15:45 PM2 trades$2003 min
3/21/2026, 7:59:07 PM1 trades$700 min
3/21/2026, 8:11:33 PM1 trades$100 min
3/21/2026, 8:20:55 PM1 trades$100 min
3/22/2026, 2:13:45 PM1 trades$200 min
3/22/2026, 6:57:55 PM1 trades$350 min
3/22/2026, 7:13:29 PM1 trades$340 min
3/22/2026, 8:29:43 PM3 trades$3466 min
3/22/2026, 9:14:39 PM1 trades$940 min
4/26/2026, 10:18:36 AM1 trades$100 min
4/26/2026, 10:25:24 AM1 trades$100 min
4/26/2026, 10:45:40 AM1 trades$100 min
4/26/2026, 11:51:32 AM1 trades$20 min
4/26/2026, 12:58:58 PM1 trades$980 min
4/26/2026, 1:45:06 PM1 trades$970 min
4/26/2026, 2:01:10 PM1 trades$980 min
4/26/2026, 3:11:56 PM1 trades$180 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
03-31
05-01
05-07
05-25
06-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
90.7% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
34.4% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event