Polydata

@Affectionate-Region

#2,507,30024

0x6aabd02b7f3fdb663517352ca8a9a333745bead7

275d· 92 markets · 150 tradesVol: $21,5012026-05-24T12:14
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

24
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 47%8/20
Profit Factor 0.89x1/15
HHI 14110/10
Profit Days 50%5/10
DD/Peak 264%0/10

Summary

Affectionate-Region is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with 150 trades across 92 markets over 270 days. Despite a below-average Smart Score of 24/100 and a global PnL rank of #2,507,300, the trader has generated a net loss of $318.96 from a total volume of $21,501. Their portfolio value currently stands at $188.73, with an upward equity trend indicating some recent improvement.

The trading style of Affectionate-Region focuses heavily on weather-related markets, accounting for 88% of their activity. They maintain a relatively conservative risk profile, with a win rate of 67.2% and a profit factor of 2.18, suggesting a positive payoff on winning trades. The trader tends to hold positions rather than frequently selling, with only 35% of trades involving selling. Their Sharpe ratio of -0.11 and zero max drawdown duration imply limited volatility but also a struggle to consistently generate risk-adjusted returns. Manual trading is indicated by a low bot score of 5/100.

Affectionate-Region’s key strength lies in their specialization in weather markets and a solid win streak, which may provide an edge in niche areas. However, the overall negative PnL, low Smart Score, and negative Sharpe ratio highlight potential concerns regarding long-term profitability and risk management. Continued focus on improving strategy execution and capital allocation may help mitigate these risks on Polymarket.

Badges

2
Weather Pro
88% weather
Win Streak
16 wins in a row

Categories

5
🌤️ WEATHER#263,556$-387Vol: $19,883
🏛️ POLITICS#52,854$132Vol: $1,455
🎭 CULTURE#732,736$-50Vol: $79
SPORTS#1,344,182$-24Vol: $63
CRYPTO#218,163$10Vol: $20

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-319
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$21,501
Total Redeem
$583
Portfolio
$189
Predictions
92
total markets
Trades
98B / 52S
Daily Volume
$24
Account Age
275d
since Aug 22, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$110
Vol: $513
Week
$212
Vol: $513
Month
$-617
Vol: $9,073
All Time
$-319
Vol: $21,501

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
48%
43W / 47L events
Realized PnL
$1,317
Win Rate
67%
43W / 21L
Profit Factor
2.18x
Avg Win
$59
Avg Loss
$-55

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $655 (47.9% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 30?$347
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 29?$174
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 3?$134
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 28?$133
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 3?$131
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 1?$131
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 24?$115
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 29?$99
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher o$91
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 2$84

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on Apr$-100
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 28?$-98
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 27?$-98
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 27?$-97
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 27?$-97
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 86°F or higher on April$-76
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April$-74
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 5?$-71
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 27?$-64
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 7?$-53

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.105
Sortino
-0.149
HHI
141
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.172
Kelly %
33.4%
Half-Kelly
16.7%
Top-1 market
2%
Top-5 markets
8.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.6
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.3
Active Hours
18/24
Extended
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
16.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.4h
between trades
Night Trading
3%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.59
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
MEDIUM
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 984s — typical for humanSize CV 0.60 — diverse, typical for human3% at night — normal sleep pattern18/24 hours — extended daySession CV 1.36 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.1
Single entry
<=1
86 entries
<=2
92 entries
<=5
92 entries
<=10
92 entries
<=20
92 entries
<=50
92 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)5.1%
Mid (20-55c)56.1%
High (>55c)38.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 99.7%

Madrid$276
London$252
Singapore$210
Paris$179
San Francisco$139
Shanghai$134
Buenos Aires$131
Moscow$103
New York City$101
Warsaw$53
Los Angeles$51
Seoul$41
Milan$23
Hong Kong$18
Miami$11
Other$11
Atlanta$5
Houston$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
90

Single bracket

<=1
88 brackets
<=2
90 brackets
<=3
90 brackets
<=4
90 brackets
<=5
90 brackets
<=8
90 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
8/27/2025, 4:00:15 PM2 trades$752 min
9/8/2025, 3:47:58 PM1 trades$150 min
3/20/2026, 4:31:17 PM1 trades$110 min
3/20/2026, 6:15:45 PM2 trades$2003 min
3/21/2026, 7:59:07 PM1 trades$700 min
3/21/2026, 8:11:33 PM1 trades$100 min
3/21/2026, 8:20:55 PM1 trades$100 min
3/22/2026, 2:13:45 PM1 trades$200 min
3/22/2026, 6:57:55 PM1 trades$350 min
3/22/2026, 7:13:29 PM1 trades$340 min
3/22/2026, 8:29:43 PM3 trades$3466 min
3/22/2026, 9:14:39 PM1 trades$940 min
4/26/2026, 10:18:36 AM1 trades$100 min
4/26/2026, 10:25:24 AM1 trades$100 min
4/26/2026, 10:45:40 AM1 trades$100 min
4/26/2026, 11:51:32 AM1 trades$20 min
4/26/2026, 12:58:58 PM1 trades$980 min
4/26/2026, 1:45:06 PM1 trades$970 min
4/26/2026, 2:01:10 PM1 trades$980 min
4/26/2026, 3:11:56 PM1 trades$180 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
03-21
04-27
05-01
05-05
05-16
05-24

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
88% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
34.7% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event