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Ancient-Gosling

@Ancient-Gosling

#2,325,75315

0x843bd8933169f8a996f136a0372974ba02783201

141d· 44 markets · 152 tradesVol: $5,7622026-06-11T11:46
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

15
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 39%5/20
Profit Factor 0.85x1/15
HHI 28610/10
Profit Days 0%0/10

Summary

Ancient-Gosling is a relatively new and moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 152 trades across 44 markets over 34 days. Despite a perfect win rate of 100%, their net PnL stands at -$88.65, placing them at rank #2,325,753 on the global leaderboard. Their overall trading volume totals $5,762, but their portfolio value is currently zero, indicating no open positions. The trader has a low Smart Score of 15/100, reflecting beginner-level proficiency.

The trading style of Ancient-Gosling appears cautious, with a sell percentage of only 6%, suggesting a strong preference for holding positions, consistent with the "Diamond Hands" badge. They have not engaged in weather-related markets and tend to trade manually, as indicated by a bot score of zero. Their risk profile seems high given the negative Sharpe ratio of -1.58 and a downward equity trend, implying losses outweigh returns despite their consistent winning trades. The zero profit factor points to unprofitable trades overall, possibly due to small margins or high costs.

Strengths for Ancient-Gosling include their disciplined approach, demonstrated by a consistent win streak and contrarian trading badge, which may help in volatile markets. However, the key risks lie in their declining equity and negative returns, which suggest that while trades win, profits are not being realized effectively. This combination of high activity with poor profitability warrants careful review for improvement.

Badges

3
Contrarian
100% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
6% sell
Win Streak
26 wins in a row

Categories

1
₿ CRYPTO#1,363,314$-89Vol: $5,762

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-89
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$5,762
Total Redeem
$676
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
44
total markets
Trades
143B / 9S
Daily Volume
$30
Account Age
141d
since Feb 11, 2026

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
59%
26W / 18L events
Realized PnL
$200
Win Rate
100%
26W / 0L
Profit Factor
0x
Avg Win
$5
Avg Loss
$0

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $71 (50.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$27
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$25
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$20
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$4
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$3

Top Losers

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-1.583
Sortino
-1.583
HHI
286
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.310
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.5%
Top-5 markets
17.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
4.5
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.3
Active Hours
7/24
Normal
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
7.2m
between trades
Night Trading
0%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.97
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
22
Avg Duration
7 min
Avg Trades / Session
6.9

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
LOW
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 140s — typical for humanSize CV 0.97 — diverse, typical for human0% at night — normal sleep pattern7/24 hours — normal hoursSession CV 0.88 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.2
Moderate DCA
<=1
10 entries
<=2
19 entries
<=5
38 entries
<=10
44 entries
<=20
44 entries
<=50
44 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)23.8%
Mid (20-55c)76.2%
High (>55c)0%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 35%

Other$142

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
44

Single bracket

<=1
44 brackets
<=2
44 brackets
<=3
44 brackets
<=4
44 brackets
<=5
44 brackets
<=8
44 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/16/2026, 10:40:53 AM1 trades$40 min
3/27/2026, 10:57:09 AM3 trades$42 min
3/27/2026, 2:08:05 PM1 trades$50 min
3/27/2026, 2:15:59 PM13 trades$2810 min
3/27/2026, 2:31:03 PM11 trades$4615 min
3/27/2026, 2:50:41 PM22 trades$30935 min
3/27/2026, 3:44:57 PM5 trades$370 min
3/27/2026, 3:50:09 PM40 trades$40749 min
3/27/2026, 4:50:05 PM11 trades$11015 min
3/27/2026, 5:10:23 PM2 trades$210 min
3/27/2026, 5:19:19 PM1 trades$180 min
3/27/2026, 5:24:21 PM1 trades$180 min
3/27/2026, 5:34:01 PM2 trades$994 min
3/27/2026, 5:47:15 PM6 trades$602 min
3/29/2026, 6:30:10 PM4 trades$210 min
3/31/2026, 2:02:53 PM1 trades$90 min
3/31/2026, 2:09:13 PM20 trades$8314 min
3/31/2026, 4:26:35 PM1 trades$50 min
3/31/2026, 4:40:45 PM1 trades$00 min
3/31/2026, 4:46:23 PM2 trades$12 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-17
03-27
03-29
03-31
04-01
04-19

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
5.9% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event