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Ancient-Gosling

@Ancient-Gosling

#2,248,98815

0x843bd8933169f8a996f136a0372974ba02783201

99d· 44 markets · 152 tradesVol: $5,7622026-05-18T08:59
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

15
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 39%5/20
Profit Factor 0.85x1/15
HHI 28610/10
Profit Days 0%0/10

Summary

Ancient-Gosling is a relatively new and moderately active trader on Polymarket, having completed 152 trades across 44 markets over 34 days. Despite a win rate reported at 100%, their overall net PnL stands at negative $88.65, placing them at rank #2,248,988 on the global leaderboard. Their portfolio value is currently zero, and the downward equity trend suggests consistent losses over time.

The trader prefers manual trading and does not utilize bots, with a low sell percentage of 6%, indicating a tendency to hold positions for longer periods. Ancient-Gosling has not engaged in weather markets, focusing instead on other segments. Their contrarian and diamond hands badges imply a high-risk tolerance and a willingness to maintain positions through volatility. However, the negative Sharpe ratio and zero profit factor point to poor risk-adjusted returns and ineffective timing strategies.

Key strengths for Ancient-Gosling include persistence and a disciplined approach to holding trades, as reflected in their win streak badge. On the downside, their negative overall performance, declining equity, and beginner smart score highlight significant risks. Without improved strategy adjustments, Ancient-Gosling faces challenges in generating consistent profits on Polymarket.

Badges

3
Contrarian
100% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
6% sell
Win Streak
26 wins in a row

Categories

1
CRYPTO#1,317,300$-89Vol: $5,762

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-89
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$5,762
Total Redeem
$676
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
44
total markets
Trades
143B / 9S
Daily Volume
$30
Account Age
99d
since Feb 11, 2026

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
59%
26W / 18L events
Realized PnL
$200
Win Rate
100%
26W / 0L
Profit Factor
0x
Avg Win
$5
Avg Loss
$0

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $71 (50.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$27
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$25
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$20
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$4
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$3

Top Losers

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-1.583
Sortino
-1.583
HHI
286
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.310
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.5%
Top-5 markets
17.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
4.5
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.3
Active Hours
7/24
Normal
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
7.2m
between trades
Night Trading
0%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.97
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
22
Avg Duration
7 min
Avg Trades / Session
6.9

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
LOW
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 140s — typical for humanSize CV 0.97 — diverse, typical for human0% at night — normal sleep pattern7/24 hours — normal hoursSession CV 0.88 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.2
Moderate DCA
<=1
10 entries
<=2
19 entries
<=5
38 entries
<=10
44 entries
<=20
44 entries
<=50
44 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)23.8%
Mid (20-55c)76.2%
High (>55c)0%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 35%

Other$142

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
44

Single bracket

<=1
44 brackets
<=2
44 brackets
<=3
44 brackets
<=4
44 brackets
<=5
44 brackets
<=8
44 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/16/2026, 10:40:53 AM1 trades$40 min
3/27/2026, 10:57:09 AM3 trades$42 min
3/27/2026, 2:08:05 PM1 trades$50 min
3/27/2026, 2:15:59 PM13 trades$2810 min
3/27/2026, 2:31:03 PM11 trades$4615 min
3/27/2026, 2:50:41 PM22 trades$30935 min
3/27/2026, 3:44:57 PM5 trades$370 min
3/27/2026, 3:50:09 PM40 trades$40749 min
3/27/2026, 4:50:05 PM11 trades$11015 min
3/27/2026, 5:10:23 PM2 trades$210 min
3/27/2026, 5:19:19 PM1 trades$180 min
3/27/2026, 5:24:21 PM1 trades$180 min
3/27/2026, 5:34:01 PM2 trades$994 min
3/27/2026, 5:47:15 PM6 trades$602 min
3/29/2026, 6:30:10 PM4 trades$210 min
3/31/2026, 2:02:53 PM1 trades$90 min
3/31/2026, 2:09:13 PM20 trades$8314 min
3/31/2026, 4:26:35 PM1 trades$50 min
3/31/2026, 4:40:45 PM1 trades$00 min
3/31/2026, 4:46:23 PM2 trades$12 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-17
03-27
03-29
03-31
04-01
04-19

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
5.9% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event