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Auracabal

@Auracabal

#190,92639

0xf0e1ac564358d53d9ac9988ea6bbdb667c34110d

284d· 2462 markets · 1872 tradesVol: $14,0832026-06-27T02:23
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

39
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 1.12x4/15
Sharpe 0.0230/15
Sortino 0.0511/10
EV $+0.0131/10
HHI 1710/10
Profit Days 44%4/10
DD/Peak 816%0/10

Summary

Auracabal is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 1,872 trades across 1,496 markets over 223 days. Despite a below-average Smart Score of 39/100 and a global rank of #190926, Auracabal has generated a net profit of $144.45 on a total volume of $14,083. Their portfolio currently holds no open positions, and their equity trend shows steady growth. The trader’s Sharpe Ratio of 0.02 indicates minimal risk-adjusted returns, while the low max drawdown duration suggests good capital preservation.

Auracabal’s strategy appears focused on frequent, low-risk trades with a high win rate of 88.4%, supported by a profit factor of 1.12. They rarely sell positions, as indicated by a 3% sell rate, implying a tendency to hold winning bets to maximize gains. The trader does not engage in weather-related markets and exhibits a semi-automated trading style, blending manual and bot-driven decisions, with a Bot Score of 45/100. This approach suggests a preference for consistent, incremental profits rather than high-volatility speculation.

The key strengths of Auracabal include a strong win rate and steady upward equity trend, which highlight disciplined trade execution and risk management. However, the low profit factor and Sharpe Ratio coupled with a below-average Smart Score raise concerns about the scalability and robustness of their strategy under varying market conditions. Auracabal’s reliance on a semi-bot approach also introduces potential risks if market dynamics shift rapidly.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Profitable
PnL $+144
Diamond Hands
3% sell
Win Streak
524 wins in a row

Categories

4
CRYPTO#70,309$157Vol: $11,631
🏛️ POLITICS#1,109,783$-5Vol: $2,347
SPORTS#653,785$-0Vol: $38
🌤️ WEATHER#169,978$-0Vol: $35

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$144
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$14,083
Total Redeem
$5,930
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
2462
total markets
Trades
1824B / 48S
Daily Volume
$29
Account Age
284d
since Sep 23, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$-0
Vol: $0
Month
$-0
Vol: $0
All Time
$144
Vol: $14,083

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
250W / 3L events
Realized PnL
$728
Win Rate
88%
1238W / 162L
Profit Factor
1.12x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-4

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $311 (418.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$199
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$67
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET$45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$6

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$-12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$-12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET$-11
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET$-8

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.023
Sortino
0.051
HHI
18
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.013
Kelly %
20.4%
Half-Kelly
10.2%
Top-1 market
1%
Top-5 markets
4.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
30.6
Active
Markets / Day
24.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
9.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
32.1m
between trades
Night Trading
18%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.10
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.1

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 552s — typical for humanSize CV 1.10 — diverse, typical for human18% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.13 — human randomness31 trades/day — suspiciously high24 markets/day — mass coverage

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.2
Single entry
<=1
1316 entries
<=2
1423 entries
<=5
1490 entries
<=10
1494 entries
<=20
1496 entries
<=50
1496 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.9%
Mid (20-55c)6.7%
High (>55c)92.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 50.4%

Other$74

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
1496

Single bracket

<=1
1496 brackets
<=2
1496 brackets
<=3
1496 brackets
<=4
1496 brackets
<=5
1496 brackets
<=8
1496 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/21/2026, 12:15:47 PM1 trades$10 min
3/22/2026, 6:00:29 AM1 trades$10 min
3/22/2026, 6:09:17 AM1 trades$20 min
3/22/2026, 12:10:41 PM1 trades$10 min
3/23/2026, 11:18:39 AM1 trades$20 min
3/23/2026, 12:09:09 PM2 trades$45 min
3/23/2026, 1:28:43 PM1 trades$20 min
3/23/2026, 4:14:05 PM1 trades$20 min
3/24/2026, 12:44:27 AM1 trades$20 min
3/24/2026, 3:09:39 PM1 trades$30 min
3/24/2026, 4:04:21 PM1 trades$30 min
3/25/2026, 2:03:35 PM1 trades$20 min
3/25/2026, 4:34:33 PM1 trades$20 min
3/25/2026, 5:59:11 PM1 trades$20 min
3/26/2026, 6:03:51 PM1 trades$20 min
3/27/2026, 11:03:37 AM1 trades$20 min
3/27/2026, 1:38:43 PM1 trades$20 min
3/27/2026, 2:03:41 PM1 trades$20 min
3/28/2026, 4:23:37 PM1 trades$40 min
3/28/2026, 6:39:01 PM1 trades$40 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-22
03-30
04-08
04-17
04-26
05-04
05-12

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
2.6% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event