Polydata
Auracabal

@Auracabal

#194,96440

0xf0e1ac564358d53d9ac9988ea6bbdb667c34110d

285d· 2462 markets · 1872 tradesVol: $14,0832026-07-05T03:29
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

40
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 1.14x4/15
Sharpe 0.0270/15
Sortino 0.0601/10
EV $+0.0141/10
HHI 1810/10
Profit Days 44%4/10
DD/Peak 700%0/10

Summary

Auracabal is an active trader on Polymarket, with 1,872 trades executed across 1,496 markets over 223 days. Ranked #194,964 on the global PnL leaderboard, Auracabal has achieved a net profit of $144.45 on a total trading volume exceeding $14,000. Despite the relatively modest profit factor of 1.14 and a below-average Smart Score of 40/100, the trader maintains a consistently positive equity trend and holds a portfolio value of zero, indicating a focus on realized gains.

Auracabal’s trading style emphasizes frequent, low-risk engagements, as evidenced by a high win rate of 88.4% and a minimal sell percentage of 3%. The trader shows a preference for manual and semi-automated strategies rather than fully automated bots, reflected in the bot score of 45/100. Auracabal does not participate in weather markets and appears to favor markets where a sniper-like approach can capitalize on short-term opportunities, supported by badges such as Sniper and Win Streak. The very low Sharpe ratio of 0.03 suggests limited risk-adjusted returns, possibly due to conservative positioning.

Key strengths for Auracabal include a strong win rate and a steady upward equity trend, which contribute to consistent profitability on Polymarket. However, the low profit factor and minimal portfolio drawdown duration indicate potential vulnerabilities to larger market swings or less favorable conditions. The below-average Smart Score points to room for improved market selection or timing to enhance overall performance and risk management.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Profitable
PnL $+144
Diamond Hands
3% sell
Win Streak
524 wins in a row

Categories

4
CRYPTO#70,761$157Vol: $11,631
🏛️ POLITICS#1,115,503$-5Vol: $2,347
SPORTS#672,307$-0Vol: $38
🌤️ WEATHER#171,379$-0Vol: $35

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$144
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$14,083
Total Redeem
$5,930
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
2462
total markets
Trades
1824B / 48S
Daily Volume
$29
Account Age
285d
since Sep 23, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$-0
Vol: $0
Month
$-0
Vol: $0
All Time
$144
Vol: $14,083

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
250W / 3L events
Realized PnL
$728
Win Rate
88%
1238W / 162L
Profit Factor
1.14x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-4

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $311 (364% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$199
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$67
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET$45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$6

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$-12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$-12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET$-11
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET$-8

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.027
Sortino
0.060
HHI
18
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.015
Kelly %
20.9%
Half-Kelly
10.4%
Top-1 market
1%
Top-5 markets
4.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
30.6
Active
Markets / Day
24.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
9.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
32.1m
between trades
Night Trading
18%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.10
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.1

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 552s — typical for humanSize CV 1.11 — diverse, typical for human18% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.13 — human randomness31 trades/day — suspiciously high24 markets/day — mass coverage

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.2
Single entry
<=1
1316 entries
<=2
1423 entries
<=5
1490 entries
<=10
1494 entries
<=20
1496 entries
<=50
1496 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.9%
Mid (20-55c)6.7%
High (>55c)92.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 50.5%

Other$85

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
1496

Single bracket

<=1
1496 brackets
<=2
1496 brackets
<=3
1496 brackets
<=4
1496 brackets
<=5
1496 brackets
<=8
1496 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/21/2026, 12:15:47 PM1 trades$10 min
3/22/2026, 6:00:29 AM1 trades$10 min
3/22/2026, 6:09:17 AM1 trades$20 min
3/22/2026, 12:10:41 PM1 trades$10 min
3/23/2026, 11:18:39 AM1 trades$20 min
3/23/2026, 12:09:09 PM2 trades$45 min
3/23/2026, 1:28:43 PM1 trades$20 min
3/23/2026, 4:14:05 PM1 trades$20 min
3/24/2026, 12:44:27 AM1 trades$20 min
3/24/2026, 3:09:39 PM1 trades$30 min
3/24/2026, 4:04:21 PM1 trades$30 min
3/25/2026, 2:03:35 PM1 trades$20 min
3/25/2026, 4:34:33 PM1 trades$20 min
3/25/2026, 5:59:11 PM1 trades$20 min
3/26/2026, 6:03:51 PM1 trades$20 min
3/27/2026, 11:03:37 AM1 trades$20 min
3/27/2026, 1:38:43 PM1 trades$20 min
3/27/2026, 2:03:41 PM1 trades$20 min
3/28/2026, 4:23:37 PM1 trades$40 min
3/28/2026, 6:39:01 PM1 trades$40 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-22
03-30
04-08
04-17
04-26
05-04
05-12

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
2.6% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event