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@Bad-Lamp

#275,32230

0x1030bfa756a2b78b6b6b562cd0b43e446eba2c1e

229d· 125 markets · 278 tradesVol: $108,497 @halfinneyy2026-05-18T06:05
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 51%10/20
Profit Factor 1.03x3/15
Sharpe 0.0210/15
Sortino 0.0470/10
EV $+0.0774/10
HHI 40810/10
Profit Days 38%2/10
DD/Peak 89%0/10

Summary

Bad-Lamp is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 278 trades across 125 markets over 226 days. Ranked #275,322 globally on the PnL leaderboard, they have generated a net profit of $53.76 on a total trading volume of $108,497. Despite a below-average Smart Score of 30/100, Bad-Lamp maintains a positive profit factor of 1.65 and a win rate of 66.7%, indicating consistent profitability, albeit with a low Sharpe ratio of 0.02 and a declining equity trend.

This trader prefers a diverse portfolio, including weather markets which make up 7% of their trades. Bad-Lamp exhibits a moderately conservative risk profile, reflected in a maximum drawdown duration of zero days and a sell percentage of 36%. Their trading style appears to be manual and deliberate, as suggested by a low bot score of 5/100 and an equity trend that shows a gradual decline, possibly due to timing or market selection challenges.

Bad-Lamp’s strengths lie in maintaining a steady win rate and achieving profitability across numerous markets, supported by badges like “Profitable” and “Win Streak.” However, the low Smart Score and Sharpe ratio signal limited risk-adjusted returns and potential vulnerability to market volatility. The downward equity trend and modest portfolio value suggest that while the trader has room for growth, improving strategy execution and risk management could be critical for future performance.

Badges

2
Profitable
PnL $+54
Win Streak
10 wins in a row

Categories

3
₿ CRYPTO#62,102$179Vol: $64,243
🌤️ WEATHER#252,178$-118Vol: $42,180
🎭 CULTURE#645,220$-8Vol: $2,074

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$54
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$108,497
Total Redeem
$142
Portfolio
$55
Predictions
125
total markets
Trades
179B / 99S
Daily Volume
$31
Account Age
229d
since Oct 3, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-68
Vol: $0
Week
$-68
Vol: $1,538
Month
$-253
Vol: $58,673
All Time
$54
Vol: $108,497

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
49%
58W / 60L events
Realized PnL
$968
Win Rate
67%
62W / 31L
Profit Factor
1.65x
Avg Win
$40
Avg Loss
$-48

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $877 (90.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 11?$668
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$110
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$99
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on December 1?$94
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$86
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 5?$84
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET$73
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$68
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$63
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$56

Top Losers

Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 1?$-403
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 12$-201
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18?$-185
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$-100
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 15?$-78
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 1?$-65
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$-49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$-45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$-40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$-36

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.021
Sortino
0.047
HHI
408
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.077
Kelly %
37.8%
Half-Kelly
18.9%
Top-1 market
15.4%
Top-5 markets
35%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
57.5m
between trades
Night Trading
5%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.36
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.2

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 142s — typical for humanSize CV 2.36 — diverse, typical for human5% at night — normal sleep pattern19/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.73 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.4
Single entry
<=1
96 entries
<=2
119 entries
<=5
124 entries
<=10
124 entries
<=20
125 entries
<=50
125 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)17.3%
Mid (20-55c)65.9%
High (>55c)16.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 64.6%

Other$970
Ankara$-0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
119

Single bracket

<=1
115 brackets
<=2
117 brackets
<=3
119 brackets
<=4
119 brackets
<=5
119 brackets
<=8
119 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/3/2025, 7:20:56 PM1 trades$80 min
11/28/2025, 1:26:03 PM2 trades$2141 min
11/28/2025, 2:54:35 PM2 trades$2510 min
11/28/2025, 4:28:23 PM1 trades$4300 min
11/29/2025, 8:48:27 PM2 trades$411 min
11/30/2025, 12:33:52 PM1 trades$1000 min
12/1/2025, 3:45:48 AM2 trades$1202 min
12/2/2025, 3:02:52 PM1 trades$4100 min
12/2/2025, 3:18:14 PM1 trades$4940 min
12/9/2025, 2:38:00 PM1 trades$1,0700 min
12/9/2025, 4:04:44 PM1 trades$1,7380 min
12/14/2025, 11:53:39 AM1 trades$920 min
12/15/2025, 6:21:25 AM1 trades$140 min
4/29/2026, 2:37:00 PM1 trades$30 min
4/29/2026, 7:19:52 PM1 trades$60 min
4/30/2026, 10:25:58 AM2 trades$91 min
4/30/2026, 2:06:54 PM1 trades$170 min
4/30/2026, 2:25:22 PM1 trades$170 min
5/1/2026, 2:48:54 AM1 trades$180 min
5/1/2026, 3:29:02 AM1 trades$170 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-01
12-11
04-30
05-02
05-04
05-12
05-18

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
7.2% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
35.6% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event