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@Bad-Lamp

#125,46359

0x1030bfa756a2b78b6b6b562cd0b43e446eba2c1e

274d· 282 markets · 623 tradesVol: $152,080 @halfinneyy2026-07-02T12:50
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

59
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 53%12/20
Profit Factor 1.27x6/15
Sharpe 0.2284/15
Sortino 0.6236/10
EV $+0.56310/10
HHI 11310/10
Profit Days 41%3/10
DD/Peak 27%9/10

Summary

Bad-Lamp is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 623 trades executed over 249 days. Ranking #125,463 globally by net profit and holding a net PnL of $386.08, they maintain a good Smart Score of 59/100. Despite a sizable total trading volume of $152,080 across 282 markets, Bad-Lamp’s portfolio value currently stands at zero, and their equity trend shows a recent decline.

Their trading style reflects a balanced risk approach, demonstrated by a 67% win rate and a profit factor of 2.60, indicating profitable trades outweigh losses. Bad-Lamp engages a broad range of markets but has limited exposure to weather markets (3%). They tend to hold positions short-term, evidenced by a max drawdown duration of zero days and a sell percentage of 38%. The trader’s Sharpe ratio of 0.23 suggests modest risk-adjusted returns, consistent with a calm and steady strategy noted by badges like “Cool Head” and “Win Streak.”

Key strengths for Bad-Lamp include consistent profitability and disciplined risk management, supported by a high win rate and positive profit factor. However, the downward equity trend and zero portfolio value may signal recent setbacks or capital withdrawal. Additionally, the relatively low Sharpe ratio and modest Smart Score imply limited volatility capture, which could restrict growth in more turbulent market conditions.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

3
Profitable
PnL $+386
Win Streak
11 wins in a row
Cool Head
DD 27%

Categories

4
CRYPTO#34,487$743Vol: $107,229
🌤️ WEATHER#276,290$-118Vol: $42,180
🎭 CULTURE#664,030$-8Vol: $2,074
SPORTS#1,669,183$-232Vol: $597

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$386
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$152,080
Total Redeem
$1,950
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
282
total markets
Trades
388B / 235S
Daily Volume
$63
Account Age
274d
since Oct 3, 2025

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
54%
146W / 125L events
Realized PnL
$3,283
Win Rate
67%
150W / 74L
Profit Factor
2.6x
Avg Win
$36
Avg Loss
$-28

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $905 (27.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 11?$668
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 28?$126
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$110
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$99
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$98
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on December 1?$94
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$86
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$85
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 5?$84
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET$78

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$-100
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27?$-83
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 15?$-78
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET$-71
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 1?$-65
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27?$-61
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$-58
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET$-50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$-50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$-49

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.228
Sortino
0.623
HHI
114
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.563
Kelly %
44.3%
Half-Kelly
22.1%
Top-1 market
6.8%
Top-5 markets
16.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.5
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.1
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
38.0m
between trades
Night Trading
4%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.59
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.2

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 163s — typical for humanSize CV 1.59 — diverse, typical for human4% at night — normal sleep pattern22/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.86 — human randomness306 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.4
Single entry
<=1
215 entries
<=2
268 entries
<=5
281 entries
<=10
281 entries
<=20
282 entries
<=50
282 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)10.1%
Mid (20-55c)63.7%
High (>55c)26.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 50.4%

Other$3,335
Paris$0
Ankara$-0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
274

Single bracket

<=1
268 brackets
<=2
272 brackets
<=3
274 brackets
<=4
274 brackets
<=5
274 brackets
<=8
274 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/3/2025, 7:20:56 PM1 trades$80 min
11/28/2025, 1:26:03 PM2 trades$2141 min
11/28/2025, 2:54:35 PM2 trades$2510 min
11/28/2025, 4:28:23 PM1 trades$4300 min
11/29/2025, 8:48:27 PM2 trades$411 min
11/30/2025, 12:33:52 PM1 trades$1000 min
12/1/2025, 3:45:48 AM2 trades$1202 min
12/2/2025, 3:02:52 PM1 trades$4100 min
12/2/2025, 3:18:14 PM1 trades$4940 min
12/9/2025, 2:38:00 PM1 trades$1,0700 min
12/9/2025, 4:04:44 PM1 trades$1,7380 min
12/14/2025, 11:53:39 AM1 trades$920 min
12/15/2025, 6:21:25 AM1 trades$140 min
4/29/2026, 2:37:00 PM1 trades$30 min
4/29/2026, 7:19:52 PM1 trades$60 min
4/30/2026, 10:25:58 AM2 trades$91 min
4/30/2026, 2:06:54 PM1 trades$170 min
4/30/2026, 2:25:22 PM1 trades$170 min
5/1/2026, 2:48:54 AM1 trades$180 min
5/1/2026, 3:29:02 AM1 trades$170 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-01
12-15
05-02
05-10
05-18
05-28
05-31
06-09

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
3.2% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
37.7% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event