Polydata
Bewitched-Grouper

@Bewitched-Grouper

#43,67399

0x2d44274747466c0936c3e01d5a5ad6c260d97023

62d· 99 markets · 286 tradesVol: $23,0302026-06-27T13:21
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

99
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 96%20/20
Profit Factor 3963.16x15/15
Sharpe 0.86615/15
Sortino 72745.17510/10
EV $+0.1709/10
HHI 23810/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Bewitched-Grouper is an active Polymarket trader with a strong track record, ranking #43,673 globally on the PnL leaderboard. Over 62 days, they have executed 286 trades across 99 markets, generating a net profit of $2,338.25 on a total volume of $23,030. Their smart score of 99/100 places them in the elite category, highlighting consistent and profitable trading performance.

This trader specializes exclusively in weather markets, reflecting a focused strategy. Bewitched-Grouper demonstrates a high win rate of 97.0% and an exceptional profit factor of 3963.16, suggesting low-risk, high-reward trades. Their sell percentage at 39% indicates a balanced approach to exiting positions. The Sharpe ratio of 0.87 and zero days of max drawdown duration point to disciplined risk management and timely trade execution, likely favoring short-term, precise market entries.

Key strengths for Bewitched-Grouper include a strong upward equity trend, consistent profitability, and a sniper-like precision in weather market bets. However, the exclusive concentration in weather markets may expose them to sector-specific risks and limit diversification. Despite a relatively low bot score, indicating probable human trading, their fast interface use suggests efficient decision-making but also potential vulnerability to emotional biases under rapid market changes.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 96%
Profitable
PnL $+2,338
Weather Pro
100% weather
Win Streak
75 wins in a row
Consistent
32/32 days

Categories

1
🌤️ WEATHER#732$2,338Vol: $23,030

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$2,338
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$23,030
Total Redeem
$12,180
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
99
total markets
Trades
175B / 111S
Daily Volume
$219
Account Age
62d
since Apr 26, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$64
Vol: $205
Week
$573
Vol: $4,484
Month
$1,695
Vol: $15,312
All Time
$2,338
Vol: $23,030

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
98%
53W / 1L events
Realized PnL
$1,272
Win Rate
97%
96W / 3L
Profit Factor
3963.16x
Avg Win
$24
Avg Loss
$-0

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $528 (22.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18?$213
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 1?$166
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18?$149
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on April 30?$105
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26?$104
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 26?$90
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17?$69
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 9?$67
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27?$63
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 26?$63

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 2?$-0
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 23?$-0
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 27?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.866
Sortino
inf
HHI
238
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.170
Kelly %
93.5%
Half-Kelly
46.8%
Top-1 market
5.8%
Top-5 markets
22.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
4.6
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
4:00 UTC
Median Gap
12.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.4h
between trades
Night Trading
30%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.58
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.8

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 771s — typical for humanSize CV 1.58 — diverse, typical for human30% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.08 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 4:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.8
Single entry
<=1
60 entries
<=2
83 entries
<=5
97 entries
<=10
98 entries
<=20
99 entries
<=50
99 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)15.4%
Mid (20-55c)16%
High (>55c)68.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 40.7%

Tokyo$770
Panama City$370
Singapore$278
Wellington$266
Cape Town$220
Mexico City$121
Sao Paulo$102
Jakarta$78
Buenos Aires$50
Paris$48
Madrid$26

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
71

Single bracket

<=1
48 brackets
<=2
68 brackets
<=3
69 brackets
<=4
71 brackets
<=5
71 brackets
<=8
71 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/26/2026, 5:58:10 AM6 trades$720 min
4/26/2026, 7:18:00 AM3 trades$61 min
4/26/2026, 7:33:00 AM3 trades$91 min
4/26/2026, 11:52:12 PM1 trades$00 min
4/27/2026, 12:05:10 AM1 trades$00 min
4/27/2026, 4:33:12 AM2 trades$132 min
4/27/2026, 4:47:42 AM2 trades$161 min
4/28/2026, 4:10:34 AM2 trades$2150 min
4/29/2026, 2:03:10 PM1 trades$2040 min
4/29/2026, 3:34:22 PM1 trades$960 min
4/30/2026, 4:33:12 AM1 trades$450 min
4/30/2026, 4:43:18 AM4 trades$592 min
4/30/2026, 6:06:14 AM2 trades$60 min
4/30/2026, 7:20:42 AM2 trades$370 min
4/30/2026, 1:38:00 PM1 trades$60 min
5/1/2026, 6:13:42 AM1 trades$400 min
5/1/2026, 7:03:56 AM1 trades$470 min
5/2/2026, 7:33:28 AM4 trades$755 min
5/2/2026, 12:55:18 PM1 trades$90 min
5/2/2026, 1:07:20 PM2 trades$21 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-26
05-01
05-06
06-10
06-15
06-20
06-26
06-27

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
100% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
38.8% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event