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@Bilz

#2,646,46610

0xf62563d5e09b2ac0305d1e0966439bc98a299d5d

961d· 218 markets · 710 tradesVol: $109,599 @shekhar_kahar2026-05-18T05:04
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

10
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 22%0/20
Profit Factor 0.52x0/15
HHI 22710/10
Profit Days 15%0/10

Summary

Bilz is a low-ranked trader on Polymarket, positioned at #2,646,466 globally by net profit and holding a beginner-level Smart Score of 10/100. Over 440 days, Bilz has executed 710 trades across 218 markets, accumulating a total volume of about $110,000 but ending with a net loss of $1,605.41. The portfolio value currently stands very low at $2.63, reflecting a consistent downward equity trend.

Bilz’s trading style appears high-risk with a low win rate of 20% and a profit factor of 0.52, indicating losses outweigh gains. The trader prefers a broad range of markets with minimal focus (only 2% in weather markets) and exhibits a contrarian approach, as suggested by badges like “Lottery Player” and “Contrarian.” The moderate sell percentage of 31% and a max drawdown duration of zero days imply quick exit decisions, possibly reacting rapidly to market changes but without a strong timing edge.

Key strengths for Bilz include active participation across many markets and a willingness to engage in diverse strategies. However, the negative Sharpe ratio (-0.39), declining portfolio, and low Smart and Bot Scores highlight significant risks and inexperience. The data suggests Bilz faces challenges in maintaining profitability on Polymarket, pointing to the need for improved risk management and market analysis.

Badges

3
Lottery Player
65% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
92% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
5 wins in a row

Categories

8
CRYPTO#1,474,042$-1,346Vol: $71,705
SPORTS#1,463,079$-81Vol: $15,833
💻 TECH#225,647$-152Vol: $7,206
🏛️ POLITICS#101,572$34Vol: $6,104
📈 ECONOMICS#568,412$-11Vol: $4,980
🎭 CULTURE#717,521$-38Vol: $1,975
📢 MENTIONS#109,559$-6Vol: $1,548
🌤️ WEATHER#207,897$-6Vol: $249

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,605
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$109,599
Total Redeem
$44
Portfolio
$3
Predictions
218
total markets
Trades
489B / 221S
Daily Volume
$18
Account Age
961d
since Oct 3, 2023

Periods

#2
Today
$-3
Vol: $0
Week
$-3
Vol: $1,175
Month
$-68
Vol: $3,263
All Time
$-1,605
Vol: $109,599

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
21%
25W / 95L events
Realized PnL
$-1,539
Win Rate
20%
41W / 163L
Profit Factor
0.52x
Avg Win
$41
Avg Loss
$-20

Top Winners

Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?$309
Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch?$290
Perle Labs FDV above $200M one day after launch?$250
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Gia$161
Will the government shutdown end November 13?$125
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch?$105
OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch?$97
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on Novem$79
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?$46
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?$42

Top Losers

Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch?$-406
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? $-292
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?$-167
Perle Labs FDV above $100M one day after launch?$-166
Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?$-159
Perle Labs FDV above $80M one day after launch?$-80
US government shutdown Saturday?$-80
Ranger FDV above $15M one day after launch?$-79
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?$-77
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on Nove$-54

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.389
Sortino
-0.407
HHI
227
Diversified
EV per $1
$-22.103
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.8%
Top-5 markets
25.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
3.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.5h
between trades
Night Trading
18%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.71
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.6

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 254s — typical for humanSize CV 1.71 — diverse, typical for human18% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.00 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.2
Moderate DCA
<=1
114 entries
<=2
163 entries
<=5
199 entries
<=10
217 entries
<=20
218 entries
<=50
218 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)64.8%
Mid (20-55c)28.2%
High (>55c)7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 38.9%

Lucknow$114
Chicago$-1
Seoul$-5
Shanghai$-14
Other$-1,636

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.8
Events covered
120

Single bracket

<=1
77 brackets
<=2
91 brackets
<=3
104 brackets
<=4
113 brackets
<=5
118 brackets
<=8
120 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/8/2025, 8:07:27 PM1 trades$1490 min
10/9/2025, 9:02:11 AM1 trades$710 min
10/9/2025, 1:55:09 PM1 trades$1420 min
10/10/2025, 11:36:44 PM1 trades$1570 min
10/10/2025, 11:45:50 PM1 trades$1000 min
10/13/2025, 11:21:11 AM2 trades$1480 min
10/15/2025, 3:47:21 AM1 trades$130 min
10/15/2025, 11:35:03 AM3 trades$941 min
10/17/2025, 12:11:00 PM2 trades$490 min
10/17/2025, 2:29:56 PM3 trades$472 min
10/17/2025, 3:57:40 PM3 trades$1161 min
10/18/2025, 11:38:16 AM4 trades$1621 min
10/18/2025, 10:28:34 PM2 trades$760 min
10/21/2025, 4:38:09 PM4 trades$216 min
10/21/2025, 10:34:53 PM2 trades$590 min
10/22/2025, 6:41:52 PM2 trades$400 min
10/23/2025, 1:20:01 PM1 trades$1980 min
10/23/2025, 1:29:59 PM1 trades$290 min
10/23/2025, 2:33:45 PM3 trades$4403 min
10/23/2025, 2:52:47 PM1 trades$1080 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
11-15
12-12
03-20
04-11
05-01
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
1.8% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
31.1% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.8 br/event