Polydata

@Bilz

#2,871,58110

0xf62563d5e09b2ac0305d1e0966439bc98a299d5d

1006d· 245 markets · 764 tradesVol: $112,378 @shekhar_kahar2026-07-03T07:15
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

10
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 23%0/20
Profit Factor 0.52x0/15
HHI 22010/10
Profit Days 17%0/10

Summary

Bilz is a relatively low-ranked trader on Polymarket, positioned at #2,871,581 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 440 days of activity, Bilz has executed 764 trades across 245 markets, accumulating a total trading volume of $112,378. Despite this activity, the trader’s net PnL is negative at -$1,623.51, with a win rate of just 22.7% and a profit factor below 1 at 0.53, indicating losses exceed gains. The Sharpe ratio of -0.37 and a portfolio value currently at zero further reflect Bilz’s struggling performance.

Bilz appears to engage in a high-risk, high-frequency trading approach, demonstrated by frequent trades and a low win rate. The trader’s participation spans diverse markets but with minimal involvement in weather markets (2%). The sell percentage of 31% implies a somewhat balanced exit strategy, though the overall equity trend is downward. Bilz tends to act as a contrarian and lottery player, suggesting a speculative style that may rely on occasional high-reward bets rather than consistent, low-risk strategies.

The main strength of Bilz’s trading lies in their persistence and breadth of market exposure, which could offer learning opportunities over time. However, the low Smart Score and Bot Score, alongside poor profitability metrics, highlight significant risks, including potential overtrading and insufficient risk management. Without adjustments to strategy or improved market selection, Bilz may continue facing challenges on Polymarket.

Badges

3
Lottery Player
64% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
90% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
5 wins in a row

Categories

8
CRYPTO#1,577,883$-1,346Vol: $71,705
SPORTS#1,598,930$-92Vol: $16,184
💻 TECH#240,477$-152Vol: $7,206
🏛️ POLITICS#110,166$32Vol: $6,182
📈 ECONOMICS#592,539$-11Vol: $4,980
📢 MENTIONS#117,034$-7Vol: $3,697
🎭 CULTURE#740,502$-38Vol: $1,975
🌤️ WEATHER#224,690$-6Vol: $249

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,624
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$112,378
Total Redeem
$66
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
245
total markets
Trades
525B / 239S
Daily Volume
$19
Account Age
1006d
since Oct 3, 2023

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
22%
30W / 105L events
Realized PnL
$-1,524
Win Rate
23%
50W / 169L
Profit Factor
0.53x
Avg Win
$34
Avg Loss
$-19

Top Winners

Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?$309
Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch?$290
Perle Labs FDV above $200M one day after launch?$250
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Gia$161
Will the government shutdown end November 13?$125
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch?$105
OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch?$99
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on Novem$79
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?$46
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?$42

Top Losers

Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch?$-406
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? $-292
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch?$-167
Perle Labs FDV above $100M one day after launch?$-166
Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?$-159
Perle Labs FDV above $80M one day after launch?$-80
US government shutdown Saturday?$-80
Ranger FDV above $15M one day after launch?$-79
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?$-77
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on Nove$-54

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.371
Sortino
-0.382
HHI
220
Diversified
EV per $1
$-15.846
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.7%
Top-5 markets
24.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
3.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.5h
between trades
Night Trading
20%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.76
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.6

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 254s — typical for humanSize CV 1.76 — diverse, typical for human20% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.98 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.1
Moderate DCA
<=1
137 entries
<=2
188 entries
<=5
226 entries
<=10
244 entries
<=20
245 entries
<=50
245 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)63.8%
Mid (20-55c)28%
High (>55c)8.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 39.7%

Lucknow$115
Los Angeles$1
Chicago$-1
Seoul$-5
Shanghai$-13
Other$-1,617

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.8
Events covered
135

Single bracket

<=1
85 brackets
<=2
101 brackets
<=3
119 brackets
<=4
128 brackets
<=5
133 brackets
<=8
135 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/8/2025, 8:07:27 PM1 trades$1490 min
10/9/2025, 9:02:11 AM1 trades$710 min
10/9/2025, 1:55:09 PM1 trades$1420 min
10/10/2025, 11:36:44 PM1 trades$1570 min
10/10/2025, 11:45:50 PM1 trades$1000 min
10/13/2025, 11:21:11 AM2 trades$1480 min
10/15/2025, 3:47:21 AM1 trades$130 min
10/15/2025, 11:35:03 AM3 trades$941 min
10/17/2025, 12:11:00 PM2 trades$490 min
10/17/2025, 2:29:56 PM3 trades$472 min
10/17/2025, 3:57:40 PM3 trades$1161 min
10/18/2025, 11:38:16 AM4 trades$1621 min
10/18/2025, 10:28:34 PM2 trades$760 min
10/21/2025, 4:38:09 PM4 trades$216 min
10/21/2025, 10:34:53 PM2 trades$590 min
10/22/2025, 6:41:52 PM2 trades$400 min
10/23/2025, 1:20:01 PM1 trades$1980 min
10/23/2025, 1:29:59 PM1 trades$290 min
10/23/2025, 2:33:45 PM3 trades$4403 min
10/23/2025, 2:52:47 PM1 trades$1080 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
11-16
12-19
03-31
04-18
05-11
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
1.6% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
31.3% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.8 br/event