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BlackPessimist

@BlackPessimist

#1,426,65117

0x2bbb0f51b1df5e4cc2a78d725031b9a21f78b5ef

46d· 18 markets · 42 tradesVol: $1,1672026-07-08T19:13
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

17
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 44%7/20
Profit Factor 0.78x0/15
HHI 7559/10
Profit Days 33%1/10
DD/Peak 195%0/10

Summary

BlackPessimist is a relatively new and low-ranked trader on Polymarket, holding the global PnL rank of #1,426,651. Over 41 days of activity, they have placed 42 trades across 18 markets, generating a total volume of $1,167 but ending with a net loss of $2.45. Their Smart Score of 17/100 classifies them as a beginner, and their portfolio value currently stands at zero, reflecting limited success so far.

The trading style of BlackPessimist shows a contrarian approach with a 53.8% win rate and a profit factor of 1.72, suggesting moderate profitability on winning trades. They are manual traders with no automated bot involvement and exhibit a moderate risk profile, indicated by a negative Sharpe ratio of -0.19 and a relatively low sell percentage of 36%. BlackPessimist avoids weather markets entirely and tends to engage in a variety of market types, but their equity trend is declining, showing challenges in timing and market selection.

BlackPessimist’s key strengths include a decent profit factor and willingness to trade multiple markets, which can help diversify risk. However, their beginner status, negative PnL, and downward equity trend pose concerns about consistency and risk management. Their contrarian style may generate occasional gains but also exposes them to volatility risks, making their future performance on Polymarket uncertain without further improvement.

Badges

2
Lottery Player
33% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
81% entries <$0.50

Categories

2
🎭 CULTURE#158,441$1Vol: $1,104
CRYPTO#970,699$-3Vol: $63

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-2
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,167
Total Redeem
$13
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
18
total markets
Trades
27B / 15S
Daily Volume
$1
Account Age
46d
since May 27, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$1
Vol: $0
Week
$1
Vol: $0
Month
$-1
Vol: $0
All Time
$-2
Vol: $1,167

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
46%
6W / 7L events
Realized PnL
$6
Win Rate
54%
7W / 6L
Profit Factor
1.72x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-1

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $5 (174.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7AM ET$2
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7PM ET$2
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$1
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3PM ET$1
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?$1
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET$0

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11AM ET$-2
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$-1
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?$-1
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$-0
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026?$-0
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.193
Sortino
-0.377
HHI
755
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.287
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
15.2%
Top-5 markets
49.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
17/24
Extended
Peak Hour
11:00 UTC
Median Gap
31.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.8h
between trades
Night Trading
10%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.64
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
30
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

4 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1864s — typical for humanSize CV 0.64 — diverse, typical for human10% at night — normal sleep pattern17/24 hours — normal hours

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 11:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.5
Single entry
<=1
12 entries
<=2
15 entries
<=5
18 entries
<=10
18 entries
<=20
18 entries
<=50
18 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)33.3%
Mid (20-55c)55.6%
High (>55c)11.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 100%

Other$3

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
13

Single bracket

<=1
10 brackets
<=2
12 brackets
<=3
12 brackets
<=4
13 brackets
<=5
13 brackets
<=8
13 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/27/2026, 4:24:32 PM3 trades$31 min
5/27/2026, 5:00:02 PM1 trades$10 min
5/27/2026, 5:40:03 PM1 trades$00 min
5/27/2026, 5:55:46 PM1 trades$10 min
5/27/2026, 6:26:50 PM1 trades$10 min
5/27/2026, 7:40:13 PM1 trades$10 min
5/27/2026, 7:53:38 PM2 trades$23 min
5/27/2026, 11:32:44 PM1 trades$10 min
5/28/2026, 12:05:41 AM1 trades$10 min
5/28/2026, 12:25:19 AM1 trades$10 min
5/28/2026, 6:58:08 AM1 trades$10 min
5/28/2026, 7:35:58 AM1 trades$00 min
5/28/2026, 11:26:39 AM1 trades$20 min
5/28/2026, 1:03:15 PM2 trades$20 min
5/28/2026, 3:52:09 PM2 trades$22 min
5/28/2026, 4:01:15 PM1 trades$10 min
5/29/2026, 8:03:06 AM2 trades$61 min
5/29/2026, 8:47:14 AM1 trades$50 min
5/29/2026, 10:25:32 AM1 trades$10 min
5/29/2026, 11:04:00 AM1 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-27
05-28
05-29
05-30
06-01
06-03
06-05
06-12
07-07

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
35.7% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event