Polydata
BlackPessimist

@BlackPessimist

#523,78783

0x2bbb0f51b1df5e4cc2a78d725031b9a21f78b5ef

1d· 6 markets · 15 tradesVol: $1,0342026-05-28T08:55
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

83
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 50%10/20
Profit Factor 4.85x15/15
Sharpe 1.94515/15
Sortino 1631.89010/10
EV $+1.63210/10
HHI 18563/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

BlackPessimist is a relatively new and moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #523,787 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over two days of activity, they executed 15 trades across 6 different markets, generating a net profit of $4.93 on a total traded volume of $1,034. Their portfolio value stands at $5.66, and they maintain a very good Smart Score of 83/100, indicating strong potential despite limited trading history.

The trading style of BlackPessimist leans toward a balanced and consistent approach, as reflected in their 50% win rate and a high profit factor of 9.15. They appear to favor manual, human-driven trades over bots, with only 40% of positions sold. Their Sharpe ratio of 1.95 suggests a good risk-adjusted return, while their zero-day maximum drawdown duration indicates effective risk management. BlackPessimist has not shown preference for weather markets, focusing instead on other opportunities within Polymarket.

Strengths for BlackPessimist include disciplined trade execution and a contrarian mindset, which can exploit market inefficiencies. Their high profit factor and consistent badge reinforce this strength. However, the limited number of trades and short active period pose risks in assessing long-term performance and strategy robustness. Continued activity and diversification will be important for BlackPessimist to confirm their effectiveness on Polymarket.

Badges

3
Profitable
PnL $+5
Contrarian
78% entries <$0.50
Consistent
3/3 days

Categories

2
🎭 CULTURE#112,860$2Vol: $1,026
CRYPTO#319,679$3Vol: $8

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$5
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,034
Total Redeem
$4
Portfolio
$6
Predictions
6
total markets
Trades
9B / 6S
Daily Volume
$5
Account Age
1d
since May 27, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$5
Vol: $7
Week
$5
Vol: $1,034
Month
$5
Vol: $1,034
All Time
$5
Vol: $1,034

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
3W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$2
Win Rate
50%
2W / 2L
Profit Factor
9.15x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-0

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $3 (112.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7PM ET$2
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3PM ET$1

Top Losers

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$-0
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
1.945
Sortino
inf
HHI
1856
Moderate
EV per $1
$1.632
Kelly %
44.6%
Half-Kelly
22.3%
Top-1 market
22.7%
Top-5 markets
89%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
15.0
Active
Markets / Day
6.0
Active Hours
8/24
Normal
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
33.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.1h
between trades
Night Trading
13%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.02
Very consistent
Session Statistics
Sessions
12
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
LOW
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
HIGH
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1977s — typical for humanSize CV 0.02 — uniform orders13% at night — normal sleep pattern8/24 hours — normal hours15 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.5
Single entry
<=1
3 entries
<=2
6 entries
<=5
6 entries
<=10
6 entries
<=20
6 entries
<=50
6 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)22.2%
Mid (20-55c)66.7%
High (>55c)11.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 100%

Other$2

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2
Events covered
3

Moderate coverage

<=1
2 brackets
<=2
2 brackets
<=3
2 brackets
<=4
3 brackets
<=5
3 brackets
<=8
3 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/27/2026, 4:24:32 PM3 trades$31 min
5/27/2026, 5:00:02 PM1 trades$10 min
5/27/2026, 5:40:03 PM1 trades$00 min
5/27/2026, 5:55:46 PM1 trades$10 min
5/27/2026, 6:26:50 PM1 trades$10 min
5/27/2026, 7:40:13 PM1 trades$10 min
5/27/2026, 7:53:38 PM2 trades$23 min
5/27/2026, 11:32:44 PM1 trades$10 min
5/28/2026, 12:05:41 AM1 trades$10 min
5/28/2026, 12:25:19 AM1 trades$10 min
5/28/2026, 6:58:08 AM1 trades$10 min
5/28/2026, 7:35:58 AM1 trades$00 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-27
05-28
05-29

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
40% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2 br/event