Polydata

@Bleak-Spill

#127,62511

0x6b4d87fcdc1ffb0096b04d3922a5f3f8f6809179

154d· 2741 markets · 1945 tradesVol: $54,8842026-07-18T08:34
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

11
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 23%0/20
Profit Factor 0.75x0/15
HHI 810/10
Profit Days 33%1/10
DD/Peak 176%0/10

Summary

Bleak-Spill is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 1,945 trades executed over 84 days. Despite holding a global PnL rank of #127,625, the trader has achieved a net profit of $391 on a total trading volume of $54,884. Their Smart Score of 11/100 indicates a beginner level, while a Bot Score of 65/100 suggests a combination of automated and manual trading approaches. Bleak-Spill’s portfolio value currently stands at zero, and their equity trend shows a decline.

The trader prefers a broad range of markets, having traded in 1,772 distinct markets, but shows no engagement in weather-related markets. With a very high win rate of 99.2% and a low sell percentage of 4%, Bleak-Spill’s style appears to be low-risk and long-holding, consistent with their Diamond Hands badge. The high profit factor of 277.03 further supports this conservative risk profile. However, the Sharpe ratio of -0.19 indicates suboptimal risk-adjusted returns, and the lack of drawdown duration suggests limited exposure to sustained losses.

Bleak-Spill’s key strengths include a strong win streak and consistent profitability, underscored by their badges and impressive win rate. However, the downward equity trend and beginner status highlight potential risks related to market timing and adaptability. The semi-bot trading style may provide some stability, but the low sell percentage and declining portfolio value warrant caution for those analyzing this trader’s long-term performance on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

3
Profitable
PnL $+391
Diamond Hands
4% sell
Win Streak
346 wins in a row

Categories

2
CRYPTO#47,317$390Vol: $54,843
SPORTS#472,016$0Vol: $37

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$391
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$54,884
Total Redeem
$9,053
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
2741
total markets
Trades
1864B / 81S
Daily Volume
$155
Account Age
154d
since Feb 13, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$1
Vol: $0
Week
$1
Vol: $0
Month
$1
Vol: $0
All Time
$391
Vol: $54,884

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
23%
250W / 858L events
Realized PnL
$4,157
Win Rate
99%
731W / 6L
Profit Factor
277.03x
Avg Win
$7
Avg Loss
$-3

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $101 (2% of PnL)

Top Winners

Solana Up or Down - March 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$41
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$30
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$30
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$29
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$28
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$27
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$27
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$26
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$26
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$26

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$-10
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$-6
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET$-2
XRP Up or Down - March 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$-0
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.192
Sortino
-0.258
HHI
8
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.248
Kelly %
99.0%
Half-Kelly
49.5%
Top-1 market
0.3%
Top-5 markets
1.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
30.2
Active
Markets / Day
27.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
0:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
14.4m
between trades
Night Trading
29%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.70
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 304s — typical for humanSize CV 0.70 — diverse, typical for human29% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.04 — human randomness30 trades/day — suspiciously high28 markets/day — mass coverage1111 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 0:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.1
Single entry
<=1
1704 entries
<=2
1756 entries
<=5
1771 entries
<=10
1772 entries
<=20
1772 entries
<=50
1772 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)4.1%
Mid (20-55c)95.9%
High (>55c)0%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 63.5%

Other$4,910

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
1772

Single bracket

<=1
1772 brackets
<=2
1772 brackets
<=3
1772 brackets
<=4
1772 brackets
<=5
1772 brackets
<=8
1772 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/5/2026, 10:54:51 PM2 trades$115 min
3/5/2026, 11:09:57 PM1 trades$50 min
3/5/2026, 11:29:39 PM1 trades$50 min
3/5/2026, 11:44:47 PM1 trades$50 min
3/5/2026, 11:59:41 PM2 trades$175 min
3/6/2026, 6:29:49 AM2 trades$175 min
3/6/2026, 6:49:51 AM1 trades$110 min
3/6/2026, 7:04:51 AM1 trades$50 min
3/6/2026, 7:35:07 AM1 trades$50 min
3/6/2026, 7:49:55 AM2 trades$115 min
3/6/2026, 8:14:49 AM1 trades$110 min
3/6/2026, 8:24:35 AM1 trades$50 min
3/6/2026, 8:35:05 AM1 trades$50 min
3/6/2026, 8:49:51 AM1 trades$110 min
3/6/2026, 9:04:57 AM1 trades$240 min
3/6/2026, 9:44:29 AM1 trades$50 min
3/6/2026, 10:04:59 AM1 trades$110 min
3/6/2026, 10:14:59 AM1 trades$50 min
3/6/2026, 10:34:55 AM3 trades$2810 min
3/6/2026, 11:00:01 AM2 trades$110 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-14
03-05
03-11
03-21
03-27
05-04

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
4.2% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event