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Bonnie_Blue

@Bonnie_Blue

#1,44629

0x5f8fe08245151828dc063df19ccbb3c9100d40cf

350d· 1051 markets · 12866 tradesVol: $3,713,0022026-06-27T08:35
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

29
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.20x0/15
HHI 13066/10
Profit Days 44%3/10

Summary

Bonnie_Blue is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with 12,866 trades across 304 markets over 457 days. Their net profit and loss stands at $119,721.54, placing them at rank #1446 on the global PnL leaderboard. Despite a sizable total trading volume exceeding $3.7 million, their Smart Score is below average at 29/100, reflecting challenges in consistent profitability. The portfolio value is $203,921 with an upward equity trend, but the Sharpe ratio of -0.44 indicates a risk-adjusted performance that is currently negative.

The trader tends to adopt a contrarian style, as suggested by their badges, with a low win rate of 18.7% and a profit factor of 0.20, indicating that losses generally outweigh gains. Bonnie_Blue’s sell percentage is very low at 5%, implying a strong tendency to hold positions, consistent with the “Diamond Hands” badge. Their activity shows a mix of manual and semi-automated trading, as reflected in a bot score of 60/100. They have not engaged in weather markets and focus primarily on other event types, relying on timing strategies that favor long-term holds rather than frequent exits.

Bonnie_Blue’s strengths include a growing equity curve and the ability to maintain positions through volatility, which has earned them accolades like "Profitable" and "Win Streak." However, the low win rate combined with a negative Sharpe ratio raises concerns about the risk-adjusted returns and possible exposure to large losses. The short max drawdown duration suggests some resilience, but the overall below-average Smart Score highlights the need for improvement in trade selection or risk management to enhance long-term sustainability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+119,722
Contrarian
73% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
5% sell
Win Streak
16 wins in a row
Whale
$983,938
High Roller
$2,153/day

Categories

8
CRYPTO#261$114,552Vol: $2,476,917
🏛️ POLITICS#1,466,382$-74Vol: $497,443
📈 ECONOMICS#664,928$-3,169Vol: $258,753
SPORTS#38,367$858Vol: $229,889
🎭 CULTURE#2,585$2,497Vol: $139,125
💰 FINANCE#632,928$-1,039Vol: $72,606
💻 TECH#283$6,097Vol: $38,246
📢 MENTIONS#87,517$-2Vol: $24

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$119,722
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$3,713,002
Total Redeem
$693,068
Portfolio
$203,921
Predictions
1051
total markets
Trades
12237B / 629S
Daily Volume
$2,153
Account Age
350d
since Jul 18, 2025

Periods

#2
Month
$2,232
Vol: $418,365
All Time
$119,722
Vol: $3,713,002

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
247W / 1L events
Realized PnL
$332,241
Win Rate
19%
50W / 218L
Profit Factor
0.2x
Avg Win
$999
Avg Loss
$-1,126

Top Winners

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?$5,196
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?$4,290
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET$4,108
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026?$3,870
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$2,874
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$2,439
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$2,028
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$1,796
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$1,600
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET$1,367

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET$-36,549
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?$-12,363
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?$-9,250
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?$-7,799
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$-4,616
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$-3,495
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET$-3,437
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$-3,383
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$-3,369
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET$-2,610

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.438
Sortino
-0.427
HHI
1306
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.202
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
21%
Top-5 markets
68.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
45.9
Active
Markets / Day
1.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
4s
between trades
Avg Gap
14.8m
between trades
Night Trading
36%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
33.88
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
40.8

Bot Detection

#6
60
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
47% < 3s — suspicious speedSize CV 33.88 — diverse, typical for human36% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.48 — human randomness46 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
40.3
Heavy DCA
<=1
15 entries
<=2
24 entries
<=5
33 entries
<=10
53 entries
<=20
95 entries
<=50
219 entries
>50
85 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)20.1%
Mid (20-55c)58.4%
High (>55c)21.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 41%

Munich$129
Paris$0
Other$-195,614

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
300

Single bracket

<=1
298 brackets
<=2
299 brackets
<=3
299 brackets
<=4
300 brackets
<=5
300 brackets
<=8
300 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
9/10/2025, 10:23:57 AM2 trades$2,2491 min
9/10/2025, 11:40:31 AM1 trades$3200 min
9/10/2025, 6:49:11 PM2 trades$5464 min
9/10/2025, 7:10:25 PM2 trades$161 min
9/10/2025, 9:11:11 PM1 trades$2290 min
9/12/2025, 3:16:43 AM1 trades$240 min
9/12/2025, 4:44:33 AM1 trades$350 min
9/12/2025, 5:36:19 AM1 trades$00 min
9/14/2025, 3:28:30 PM1 trades$2360 min
9/14/2025, 4:09:40 PM1 trades$20 min
9/14/2025, 4:35:36 PM2 trades$3713 min
9/14/2025, 5:27:22 PM2 trades$2,6164 min
9/14/2025, 6:30:44 PM3 trades$2368 min
9/14/2025, 6:48:28 PM2 trades$283 min
9/14/2025, 7:02:58 PM2 trades$750 min
9/14/2025, 7:48:24 PM1 trades$100 min
9/14/2025, 8:28:52 PM1 trades$3860 min
12/30/2025, 7:31:17 PM2 trades$170 min
12/30/2025, 7:37:01 PM1 trades$20 min
12/30/2025, 7:44:41 PM1 trades$5480 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
02-04
02-20
03-11
04-11
04-29

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
4.9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 40.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event