Polydata

@Bowed-Placebo

#1,722,83828

0x2b9a247496d728ff27457f1ab17289bd6063d233

132d· 141 markets · 415 tradesVol: $13,2932026-07-03T07:50
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

28
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 50%10/20
Profit Factor 0.98x2/15
HHI 32210/10
Profit Days 55%6/10
DD/Peak 283%0/10

Summary

Bowed-Placebo is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having placed 415 trades across 141 markets over 396 days. Despite a respectable win rate of 58.4%, the trader currently holds a negative net PnL of -$8.36 and ranks #1,722,838 on the global profit leaderboard. Their overall Smart Score is below average at 28/100, signaling room for improvement in trading performance and decision-making.

This trader appears to take a balanced approach with moderate risk, as reflected by a profit factor of 1.28 and a Sharpe ratio near zero (-0.01), indicating limited risk-adjusted returns. Bowed-Placebo tends to trade a wide variety of markets rather than specializing, with only 4% of trades in weather markets and a sell percentage of 35%. The trading style suggests patience with no extended drawdown periods, but the steadily declining equity trend points toward suboptimal timing or market selection.

Key strengths for Bowed-Placebo include an above-average win rate and a consistent volume of trades, indicating experience and resilience. However, the downward equity trend and negative net PnL highlight risks related to capital erosion and potential overtrading. Improvement in market focus or timing could enhance profitability, as current performance on Polymarket shows limited gains despite active involvement.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

1
Win Streak
11 wins in a row

Categories

5
🏛️ POLITICS#1,419,641$-40Vol: $7,634
🌤️ WEATHER#244,955$-14Vol: $1,598
⚽ SPORTS#197,277$28Vol: $1,481
📈 ECONOMICS#619,062$-24Vol: $387
💰 FINANCE#562,834$-10Vol: $98

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-8
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$13,293
Total Redeem
$987
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
141
total markets
Trades
270B / 145S
Daily Volume
$10
Account Age
132d
since Feb 22, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$0
Vol: $0
Month
$0
Vol: $0
All Time
$-8
Vol: $13,293

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
54%
59W / 51L events
Realized PnL
$118
Win Rate
58%
73W / 50L
Profit Factor
1.28x
Avg Win
$7
Avg Loss
$-8

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $137 (124.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?$86
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the$28
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?$24
Counter-Strike: Rare Atom vs TYLOO (BO3) - ESL Challenger League $19
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$18
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group $17
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners$16
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 12.5$14
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5$12
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Alter Ego (BO3) - ESL Challenger League $11

Top Losers

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$-162
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage$-33
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner$-32
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?$-19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$-18
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 35°F or below on$-13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$-10
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Mar$-10
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group St$-9
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros$-8

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.005
Sortino
-0.005
HHI
322
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.065
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
8.4%
Top-5 markets
32.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
4.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
8.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.9h
between trades
Night Trading
28%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.75
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.5

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 496s — typical for humanSize CV 1.75 — diverse, typical for human28% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.86 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.9
Single entry
<=1
86 entries
<=2
115 entries
<=5
135 entries
<=10
140 entries
<=20
141 entries
<=50
141 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)8.5%
Mid (20-55c)38.1%
High (>55c)53.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 4.1%

Other$80
Seattle$30
San Francisco$15
Atlanta$9
Chicago$2
London$1
Paris$0
Seoul$-2
Houston$-6
Los Angeles$-6
New York City$-13

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
111

Single bracket

<=1
96 brackets
<=2
104 brackets
<=3
108 brackets
<=4
109 brackets
<=5
109 brackets
<=8
111 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/28/2026, 6:40:07 AM2 trades$25 min
3/1/2026, 3:22:23 PM1 trades$150 min
3/1/2026, 3:27:49 PM1 trades$150 min
3/3/2026, 11:28:03 AM3 trades$175 min
3/4/2026, 11:24:19 AM1 trades$20 min
3/4/2026, 12:32:27 PM1 trades$00 min
3/13/2026, 10:41:21 AM1 trades$100 min
3/13/2026, 1:51:39 PM1 trades$00 min
3/17/2026, 8:33:51 AM1 trades$30 min
3/17/2026, 11:36:51 AM1 trades$30 min
3/22/2026, 3:53:05 AM1 trades$30 min
3/22/2026, 1:46:23 PM1 trades$30 min
3/22/2026, 2:29:41 PM1 trades$30 min
3/22/2026, 4:56:07 PM1 trades$40 min
3/23/2026, 12:29:49 AM1 trades$100 min
3/23/2026, 1:27:45 AM1 trades$1000 min
3/23/2026, 1:44:09 PM3 trades$186 min
3/23/2026, 2:52:35 PM2 trades$54 min
3/23/2026, 3:49:01 PM3 trades$158 min
3/23/2026, 4:03:37 PM1 trades$150 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
03-17
04-05
04-27
05-29
06-05
06-21

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
3.5% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
34.9% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event