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@Broken-Idea

#2,719,77615

0x9f208e85f326f865077fffa68b32d8b0e2bc12c3

44d· 14695 markets · 27292 tradesVol: $1,742,6292026-05-16T03:28
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

15
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 8%0/20
Profit Factor 0.66x0/15
HHI 810/10
Profit Days 50%5/10
DD/Peak 255%0/10

Summary

Broken-Idea is a highly active Polymarket trader with 27,292 trades across 4,772 markets over 40 days. Despite significant volume of $1.74 million, their net PnL stands at a negative $26,928, placing them at rank #2,719,776 globally. Their portfolio value has declined to $283.65, reflecting an overall downward equity trend. The trader’s Smart Score is 15/100, indicating a beginner level, while the Bot Score is 70/100, suggesting substantial use of automated trading strategies.

The trading style of Broken-Idea is heavily focused on weather markets, comprising 100% of their activity. They appear to favor a high-frequency, automated approach, as evidenced by the bot score and the large number of trades in a short period. The sell percentage is 39%, indicating a moderate level of position turnover. Their risk profile seems aggressive, given the negative Sharpe ratio of -0.36 and zero win rate, signaling consistent losses without profitable trades.

Broken-Idea’s strengths lie in their extensive market exposure and reliance on automation, which could allow for rapid responses to market changes. However, the significant net losses, negative profit factor, and lack of winning trades highlight considerable risks. The absence of drawdown duration and a declining portfolio value point to ineffective risk management. For Polymarket traders observing Broken-Idea, the data suggests caution due to persistent underperformance despite high activity levels.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Weather Pro
100% weather
Bot
Score 70/100
Hedger
avg 6.2 brackets/event
Whale
$308,610
High Roller
$7,715/day

Categories

1
🌤️ WEATHER#260,194$-26,928Vol: $1,742,629

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-26,928
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,742,629
Total Redeem
$26
Portfolio
$284
Predictions
14695
total markets
Trades
16632B / 10660S
Daily Volume
$7,715
Account Age
44d
since Apr 6, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-323
Vol: $3,745
Week
$-12,357
Vol: $367,795
Month
$-29,458
Vol: $709,201
All Time
$-26,928
Vol: $1,742,629

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
16%
163W / 844L events
Realized PnL
$89,199
Win Rate
0%
0W / 38L
Profit Factor
0x
Avg Win
$0
Avg Loss
$-198

Top Winners

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14$-716
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 8?$-641
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 6?$-409
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 7?$-364
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F $-336
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16$-334
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 14?$-331
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 14?$-321
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher o$-306
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 10?$-302

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.361
Sortino
-0.505
HHI
8
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.359
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
0.5%
Top-5 markets
2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1327.3
Very active
Markets / Day
232.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
34s
between trades
Avg Gap
1.4m
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.73
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
7.4

Bot Detection

#6
70
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 34s — typical for humanSize CV 0.73 — diverse, typical for human21% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.09 — human randomness1327 trades/day — automation232 markets/day — mass coverage7999 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
5
Moderate DCA
<=1
929 entries
<=2
1510 entries
<=5
2411 entries
<=10
2974 entries
<=20
3233 entries
<=50
3326 entries
>50
8 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3.1%
Mid (20-55c)6.8%
High (>55c)90%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 9.4%

Kuala Lumpur$0
Austin$0
Mexico City$0
Houston$0
Taipei$0
Amsterdam$0
Panama City$0
Karachi$0
Miami$0
Buenos Aires$0
Munich$0
Shenzhen$0
Helsinki$0
Warsaw$0
Moscow$0
Tel Aviv$0
Guangzhou$0
Busan$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
6.2
Events covered
774

Multi-bracket hedger

<=1
71 brackets
<=2
135 brackets
<=3
191 brackets
<=4
244 brackets
<=5
302 brackets
<=8
548 brackets
>8
226 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/25/2026, 1:57:18 PM3 trades$50 min
4/25/2026, 2:04:42 PM7 trades$280 min
4/25/2026, 2:22:14 PM4 trades$00 min
4/25/2026, 3:01:12 PM8 trades$62 min
4/25/2026, 4:26:50 PM7 trades$290 min
4/25/2026, 4:40:50 PM4 trades$20 min
4/25/2026, 5:20:52 PM7 trades$100 min
4/25/2026, 5:51:44 PM2 trades$152 min
4/25/2026, 6:01:02 PM4 trades$20 min
4/25/2026, 6:14:32 PM14 trades$55 min
4/25/2026, 6:26:58 PM2 trades$162 min
4/25/2026, 6:38:36 PM7 trades$130 min
4/25/2026, 6:52:06 PM4 trades$20 min
4/25/2026, 6:58:08 PM8 trades$104 min
4/25/2026, 7:08:40 PM1 trades$00 min
4/25/2026, 7:17:04 PM1 trades$10 min
4/25/2026, 7:58:30 PM5 trades$00 min
4/25/2026, 8:15:34 PM3 trades$40 min
4/25/2026, 9:15:04 PM1 trades$30 min
4/25/2026, 10:15:24 PM4 trades$00 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-07
04-13
04-21
04-27
05-04
05-10
05-16

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
100% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
39.1% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 5/mkt
Hedging
MULTI
avg 6.2 br/event