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Bruised-Steppingstone

@Bruised-Steppingstone

#152,98990

0xf73f7e9c6bd1f40dc045d2a93bec3dd4248aee53

30d· 1242 markets · 2866 tradesVol: $440,9422026-05-15T15:16
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

90
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 51%10/20
Profit Factor 5.10x15/15
Sharpe 0.81115/15
Sortino 7.14310/10
EV $+1.83010/10
HHI 5110/10
Profit Days 87%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Bruised-Steppingstone is an elite Polymarket trader with a Smart Score of 90/100 and a global PnL rank of #152,989. Over 217 days active, they have executed 2,866 trades across 578 markets, generating a net profit of $201.45 on a total volume of $440,942. Their portfolio value stands at $5,872.62, reflecting consistent but moderate gains. The trader's performance is characterized by a high win rate of 95% and a profit factor of 24.36, indicating strong profitability relative to losses.

This trader specializes exclusively in weather markets, demonstrating a focused strategy. Bruised-Steppingstone maintains a low-risk profile, as evidenced by a 0-day max drawdown duration and a Sharpe ratio of 0.81, suggesting steady returns with controlled volatility. Their timing appears disciplined, with a low sell percentage of 8%, implying a tendency to hold positions rather than frequently cashing out. The Bot Score of 80/100 suggests that part of their strategy is automated, which may contribute to consistent execution and adherence to predefined risk parameters.

Bruised-Steppingstone’s strengths lie in their exceptional win rate and disciplined approach within a niche market segment, supported by automated trading. However, their flat equity trend and limited diversification beyond weather markets could pose risks if market conditions shift unfavorably. The low sell rate might also expose them to prolonged exposure during adverse movements. Overall, Bruised-Steppingstone demonstrates a stable and effective trading style on Polymarket, with room for growth by exploring broader market opportunities.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Profitable
PnL $+201
Lottery Player
45% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
73% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
7% sell
Weather Pro
99% weather
Bot
Score 80/100
Win Streak
30 wins in a row
Consistent
26/30 days
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

2
🌤️ WEATHER#4,003$195Vol: $428,601
🏛️ POLITICS#182,903$7Vol: $12,341

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$201
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$440,942
Total Redeem
$10,453
Portfolio
$5,873
Predictions
1242
total markets
Trades
2652B / 214S
Daily Volume
$78
Account Age
30d
since Apr 20, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-494
Vol: $19,927
Week
$1,066
Vol: $97,142
Month
$-1,427
Vol: $261,345
All Time
$201
Vol: $440,942

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
57%
196W / 148L events
Realized PnL
$18,814
Win Rate
95%
172W / 9L
Profit Factor
24.36x
Avg Win
$20
Avg Loss
$-16

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $593 (17.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May$325
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 14?$141
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 12?$126
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 14?$98
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 13?$74
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 13?$73
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or higher on May 1$73
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 13?$67
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May$67
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 14?$66

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 15?$-60
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 15?$-45
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 13$-17
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 14?$-11
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 13?$-6
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 14?$-3
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 15?$-1
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 13?$-0
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 13?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.811
Sortino
7.143
HHI
51
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.830
Kelly %
91.7%
Half-Kelly
45.8%
Top-1 market
2.8%
Top-5 markets
7.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
119.5
Very active
Markets / Day
24.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
7.7m
between trades
Night Trading
28%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.67
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
80
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 76s — typical for humanSize CV 2.66 — diverse, typical for human28% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.03 — human randomness119 trades/day — automation24 markets/day — mass coverage652 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.6
Moderate DCA
<=1
175 entries
<=2
285 entries
<=5
439 entries
<=10
523 entries
<=20
558 entries
<=50
577 entries
>50
1 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)45.1%
Mid (20-55c)29.1%
High (>55c)25.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 31.2%

Seattle$359
Jakarta$200
Amsterdam$198
Wuhan$184
Beijing$166
Manila$162
Shanghai$160
Istanbul$150
Warsaw$133
Sao Paulo$128
Ankara$127
Los Angeles$117
Taipei$117
Munich$104
Tokyo$82
Atlanta$75
Chongqing$68
Chengdu$67

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2
Events covered
286

Moderate coverage

<=1
140 brackets
<=2
198 brackets
<=3
244 brackets
<=4
272 brackets
<=5
284 brackets
<=8
286 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/21/2026, 3:32:58 PM3 trades$02 min
4/22/2026, 7:55:08 AM1 trades$60 min
4/30/2026, 3:13:56 AM1 trades$00 min
4/30/2026, 6:23:04 AM1 trades$00 min
4/30/2026, 6:34:28 AM2 trades$05 min
4/30/2026, 6:47:54 AM2 trades$01 min
4/30/2026, 6:55:00 AM1 trades$00 min
4/30/2026, 7:29:10 AM2 trades$24 min
4/30/2026, 7:43:14 AM1 trades$10 min
4/30/2026, 7:50:14 AM1 trades$00 min
4/30/2026, 1:01:38 PM2 trades$10 min
4/30/2026, 2:07:16 PM1 trades$00 min
4/30/2026, 7:03:16 PM1 trades$00 min
5/1/2026, 12:10:48 AM2 trades$14 min
5/1/2026, 12:21:38 AM1 trades$00 min
5/1/2026, 12:28:24 AM1 trades$20 min
5/1/2026, 12:49:00 AM1 trades$10 min
5/1/2026, 1:06:06 AM1 trades$20 min
5/1/2026, 2:02:22 AM2 trades$21 min
5/1/2026, 2:50:24 AM1 trades$20 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-31
04-24
04-29
05-04
05-09
05-14

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
99.5% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
7.5% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2 br/event