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Bruised-Steppingstone

@Bruised-Steppingstone

#10,09944

0xf73f7e9c6bd1f40dc045d2a93bec3dd4248aee53

87d· 3932 markets · 9093 tradesVol: $2,159,1632026-06-26T16:33
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

44
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 20%0/20
Profit Factor 1.42x8/15
Sharpe 0.2394/15
Sortino 0.5075/10
EV $+0.26910/10
HHI 7829/10
Profit Days 47%4/10
DD/Peak 50%4/10

Summary

Bruised-Steppingstone is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #10099 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $13,804.61. Over 254 days, they have executed 9,093 trades across 1,218 markets, accumulating a total volume of over $2.1 million. Their portfolio value stands at $22,823.49, supported by an average Smart Score of 44/100, indicating a balanced but not outstanding overall performance.

This trader shows a clear preference for weather-related markets, which make up 98% of their activity, suggesting specialized knowledge or interest in this domain. Bruised-Steppingstone’s trading style is largely automated, reflected by an 80/100 Bot Score, and characterized by a high win rate of 91.8% and a profit factor of 62.63. Their risk profile appears moderate, with a low sell percentage of 12% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.24, indicating modest returns relative to volatility. The absence of drawdown duration hints at effective risk management or consistent recovery.

Bruised-Steppingstone’s strengths lie in their consistent profitability and specialization in weather markets, supported by automation that likely enhances execution speed and discipline. However, the relatively low Sharpe ratio and average Smart Score suggest limited risk-adjusted returns and potential vulnerability to market shifts. Their heavy focus on a single market type may also pose concentration risk if environmental factors change abruptly. Overall, Bruised-Steppingstone demonstrates steady growth but should monitor diversification and risk metrics closely.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Profitable
PnL $+13,805
Lottery Player
50% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
78% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 6.6 entries/market
Weather Pro
98% weather
Bot
Score 80/100
Win Streak
38 wins in a row
Whale
$155,054

Categories

5
🌤️ WEATHER#1,602$886Vol: $1,376,625
🏛️ POLITICS#3,365$11,328Vol: $438,320
SPORTS#23,248$1,707Vol: $302,864
📈 ECONOMICS#641,393$-90Vol: $38,000
💰 FINANCE#584,168$-26Vol: $3,283

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$13,805
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,159,163
Total Redeem
$45,904
Portfolio
$22,823
Predictions
3932
total markets
Trades
8037B / 1056S
Daily Volume
$610
Account Age
87d
since Apr 20, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$1,177
Vol: $12,180
Week
$6,161
Vol: $162,967
Month
$11,607
Vol: $1,310,842
All Time
$13,805
Vol: $2,159,163

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
24%
215W / 699L events
Realized PnL
$52,651
Win Rate
92%
90W / 8L
Profit Factor
62.63x
Avg Win
$321
Avg Loss
$-58

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $14,229 (50.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$7,495
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$3,509
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23$3,225
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21?$2,567
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1,706
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26?$1,420
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidentia$1,207
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June $1,037
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$856
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?$721

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16?$-138
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?$-118
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F $-107
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16?$-32
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May$-27
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 7?$-26
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16?$-13
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 24?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.239
Sortino
0.507
HHI
782
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.269
Kelly %
90.2%
Half-Kelly
45.1%
Top-1 market
23%
Top-5 markets
50.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
138.5
Very active
Markets / Day
18.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
9.8m
between trades
Night Trading
29%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
9.77
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
80
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 109s — typical for humanSize CV 9.77 — diverse, typical for human29% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.02 — human randomness139 trades/day — automation19 markets/day — mass coverage1373 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
6.6
Active DCA
<=1
310 entries
<=2
492 entries
<=5
792 entries
<=10
1004 entries
<=20
1144 entries
<=50
1209 entries
>50
9 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)50.4%
Mid (20-55c)28.9%
High (>55c)20.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 66.4%

Other$15,671
Paris$3,948
London$2,885
Seoul$2,859
Beijing$1,037
New York City$603
Madrid$324
Amsterdam$296
Tokyo$120
Chengdu$115
Denver$99
Lucknow$84
Wuhan$68
San Francisco$66
Milan$64
Mexico City$38
Los Angeles$33
Chongqing$19

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
812

Single bracket

<=1
522 brackets
<=2
733 brackets
<=3
794 brackets
<=4
802 brackets
<=5
808 brackets
<=8
812 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/21/2026, 3:32:58 PM3 trades$02 min
4/22/2026, 7:55:08 AM1 trades$60 min
4/30/2026, 3:13:56 AM1 trades$00 min
4/30/2026, 6:23:04 AM1 trades$00 min
4/30/2026, 6:34:28 AM2 trades$05 min
4/30/2026, 6:47:54 AM2 trades$01 min
4/30/2026, 6:55:00 AM1 trades$00 min
4/30/2026, 7:29:10 AM2 trades$24 min
4/30/2026, 7:43:14 AM1 trades$10 min
4/30/2026, 7:50:14 AM1 trades$00 min
4/30/2026, 1:01:38 PM2 trades$10 min
4/30/2026, 2:07:16 PM1 trades$00 min
4/30/2026, 7:03:16 PM1 trades$00 min
5/1/2026, 12:10:48 AM2 trades$14 min
5/1/2026, 12:21:38 AM1 trades$00 min
5/1/2026, 12:28:24 AM1 trades$20 min
5/1/2026, 12:49:00 AM1 trades$10 min
5/1/2026, 1:06:06 AM1 trades$20 min
5/1/2026, 2:02:22 AM2 trades$21 min
5/1/2026, 2:50:24 AM1 trades$20 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-21
05-03
05-16
05-28
06-09
06-21
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
98% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
11.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 6.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event