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@Cheerful-Barometer

#64472

0x05f6027ceb5b8db472bb716d3ed574c199118cec

412d· 90 markets · 1855 tradesVol: $6,248,7792026-06-27T04:32
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

72
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 62%16/20
Profit Factor 1.56x10/15
Sharpe 0.2665/15
Sortino 0.2783/10
EV $+3.07810/10
HHI 33010/10
Profit Days 71%10/10
DD/Peak 24%9/10

Summary

Cheerful-Barometer is an experienced and active trader on Polymarket, holding a respectable global rank of #644 with a net profit of $284,069.27 over 52 days. They have executed 1,855 trades across 90 different markets, maintaining a high win rate of 79.3% and a profit factor of 2.33. Despite a significant total trading volume of over $6.2 million, their portfolio value currently stands at zero, indicating a possible full exit or withdrawal of funds. Their Sharpe ratio of 0.27 suggests moderate risk-adjusted returns.

This trader prefers a diversified approach, engaging in a wide variety of markets rather than concentrating on a specific niche like weather. Their low sell percentage (1%) combined with a "Diamond Hands" badge implies a tendency to hold positions rather than quick flipping. Cheerful-Barometer exhibits a disciplined strategy characterized by steady timing and low drawdown duration, avoiding prolonged losing streaks. Their "Sniper" and "DCA Master" badges hint at precise entry points and dollar-cost averaging to manage risk.

Cheerful-Barometer’s strengths lie in their consistent profitability, high win rate, and effective risk management, as evidenced by no days of max drawdown and a strong profit factor. However, their relatively low Sharpe ratio and flat equity trend suggest limited growth in risk-adjusted returns. The low bot score confirms human trading behavior, which may contribute to adaptability but could also expose them to emotional decision-making under volatile conditions. Overall, Cheerful-Barometer demonstrates solid performance with manageable risks on Polymarket.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 62%
Profitable
PnL $+284,069
Diamond Hands
1% sell
DCA Master
avg 20.4 entries/market
Win Streak
13 wins in a row
Whale
$4,140,412
Consistent
22/31 days
High Roller
$79,623/day
Cool Head
DD 24%

Categories

1
SPORTS#309$284,069Vol: $6,248,779

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$284,069
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$6,248,779
Total Redeem
$3,673,381
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
90
total markets
Trades
1834B / 21S
Daily Volume
$79,623
Account Age
412d
since May 31, 2025

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
72%
64W / 25L events
Realized PnL
$376,321
Win Rate
79%
65W / 17L
Profit Factor
2.33x
Avg Win
$13,119
Avg Loss
$-21,483

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $252,939 (51.9% of PnL)

Top Winners

Hornets vs. Nets$112,617
Warriors vs. Suns$88,265
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17?$52,057
Heat vs. Hornets$50,763
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18?$26,557
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22?$25,200
Trail Blazers vs. Nets$23,107
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31?$20,926
Nuggets vs. Suns$20,123
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22?$19,840

Top Losers

Timberwolves vs. Celtics$-99,784
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17?$-98,600
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04?$-76,976
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-03-22?$-35,500
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22?$-19,370
Cavaliers vs. Lakers$-9,199
Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5$-4,745
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31?$-4,625
Aston Villa FC vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to Score$-4,551
Blues vs. Ducks$-2,800

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.266
Sortino
0.278
HHI
330
Diversified
EV per $1
$3.078
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
6.5%
Top-5 markets
28.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
35.7
Active
Markets / Day
1.7
Active Hours
18/24
Extended
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
18s
between trades
Avg Gap
15.5m
between trades
Night Trading
8%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.78
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.4

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 18s — typical for humanSize CV 5.78 — diverse, typical for human8% at night — normal sleep pattern18/24 hours — extended daySession CV 1.09 — human randomness36 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
20.4
Heavy DCA
<=1
24 entries
<=2
31 entries
<=5
43 entries
<=10
56 entries
<=20
64 entries
<=50
78 entries
>50
12 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)8.1%
Mid (20-55c)45.1%
High (>55c)46.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 57.4%

Other$503,868
Seattle$-2,063
Madrid$-14,270

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
89

Single bracket

<=1
88 brackets
<=2
89 brackets
<=3
89 brackets
<=4
89 brackets
<=5
89 brackets
<=8
89 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/4/2026, 4:22:37 PM1 trades$76,9760 min
3/16/2026, 5:29:03 PM4 trades$99,8584 min
3/16/2026, 10:46:07 PM25 trades$217,9656 min
3/17/2026, 2:05:47 AM1 trades$123,5760 min
3/17/2026, 3:57:21 PM2 trades$96,9552 min
3/17/2026, 7:39:37 PM1 trades$149,0130 min
3/17/2026, 7:51:15 PM1 trades$98,6000 min
3/17/2026, 10:04:29 PM14 trades$93,9717 min
3/18/2026, 3:17:49 PM2 trades$60,4732 min
3/18/2026, 3:26:51 PM1 trades$3,6120 min
3/18/2026, 3:42:53 PM3 trades$20,5790 min
3/18/2026, 4:32:27 PM4 trades$16,0315 min
3/18/2026, 7:51:57 PM2 trades$157,3102 min
3/18/2026, 10:30:05 PM2 trades$143,2383 min
3/19/2026, 2:59:05 AM1 trades$1,0750 min
3/19/2026, 4:38:37 PM12 trades$4,5519 min
3/19/2026, 10:54:01 PM3 trades$17,3466 min
3/20/2026, 4:08:29 PM2 trades$53,3520 min
3/20/2026, 5:27:21 PM1 trades$46,9290 min
3/20/2026, 11:25:47 PM1 trades$34,5000 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-04
03-20
03-25
04-02
04-09
04-20
04-25

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
1.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 20.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event