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@Cheerful-Ore

#2,557,47098

0x034c21fe424dd26d2d10fd52a6add16092c55f17

116d· 332 markets · 735 tradesVol: $32,290 @CryptoHindidemo2026-05-18T05:38
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

98
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 66%18/20
Profit Factor 19.47x15/15
Sharpe 0.77114/15
Sortino 27.39010/10
EV $+24.07910/10
HHI 43610/10
Profit Days 80%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Cheerful-Ore is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having completed 735 trades across 299 markets over 113 days. Despite a net loss of $603.08, they maintain a high Smart Score of 98/100, placing them in the elite category, though their global PnL rank is relatively low at #2,557,470. Their total trading volume is substantial at $32,290, but their current portfolio value stands at $40.64 with a stable equity trend.

This trader favors a diversified approach, engaging in nearly 300 markets with a particular but limited focus on weather events (12%). Cheerful-Ore exhibits a balanced risk profile, supported by a solid win rate of 62.6% and a strong profit factor of 4.94, suggesting effective trade selection. They tend to hold positions briefly, indicated by a zero-day max drawdown duration and a high sell percentage of 40%, reflecting active position management and timely exits.

Cheerful-Ore’s key strengths on Polymarket include consistency and disciplined trading, as evidenced by badges like Sniper and Cool Head and a positive Sharpe ratio of 0.77. However, their negative net PnL and low portfolio value highlight potential concerns around capital preservation and scaling profitability. The relatively low Bot Score suggests manual trading, which may limit execution speed but allows nuanced decision-making.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Sniper
Win Rate 66%
Win Streak
10 wins in a row
Consistent
41/51 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

5
SPORTS#1,580,145$-538Vol: $23,620
🌤️ WEATHER#226,286$-15Vol: $5,279
🏛️ POLITICS#1,371,280$-43Vol: $2,290
CRYPTO#976,539$-5Vol: $904
🎭 CULTURE#579,560$-3Vol: $197

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-603
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$32,290
Total Redeem
$39
Portfolio
$41
Predictions
332
total markets
Trades
439B / 296S
Daily Volume
$67
Account Age
116d
since Jan 25, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-3
Vol: $133
Week
$-3
Vol: $329
Month
$-66
Vol: $2,350
All Time
$-603
Vol: $32,290

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
69%
160W / 73L events
Realized PnL
$1,382
Win Rate
63%
149W / 88L
Profit Factor
4.94x
Avg Win
$8
Avg Loss
$-3

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $254 (25.9% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?$112
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?$74
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad$69
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi Capitals$62
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians$56
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans$54
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderab$47
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Sup$41
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangal$36
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders$35

Top Losers

Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giant$-73
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Capitals$-36
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Gia$-20
Hawks vs. Cavaliers$-17
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings$-12
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad$-10
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals$-9
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings$-9
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Tit$-5
Wuning: Harry Wendelken vs Pavel Kotov$-3

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.771
Sortino
27.390
HHI
436
Diversified
EV per $1
$24.079
Kelly %
49.5%
Half-Kelly
24.7%
Top-1 market
12.3%
Top-5 markets
41.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
10.6
Active
Markets / Day
4.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
2:00 UTC
Median Gap
9.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.1h
between trades
Night Trading
32%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.80
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
6 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.2

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 586s — typical for humanSize CV 2.80 — diverse, typical for human32% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.78 — human randomness11 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 2:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.5
Single entry
<=1
220 entries
<=2
274 entries
<=5
294 entries
<=10
298 entries
<=20
299 entries
<=50
299 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)10.7%
Mid (20-55c)51.9%
High (>55c)37.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 91.5%

Other$887
Tokyo$40
Seoul$30
Madrid$14
San Francisco$7
Chicago$6
Shanghai$0
Warsaw$0
Houston$0
Singapore$-1
Lucknow$-1
Toronto$-2

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
279

Single bracket

<=1
265 brackets
<=2
273 brackets
<=3
279 brackets
<=4
279 brackets
<=5
279 brackets
<=8
279 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/10/2026, 2:45:57 AM1 trades$10 min
3/10/2026, 2:53:23 AM1 trades$10 min
3/10/2026, 3:00:31 AM1 trades$10 min
3/10/2026, 3:08:47 AM1 trades$10 min
3/17/2026, 2:05:53 AM2 trades$25 min
3/20/2026, 2:48:45 AM5 trades$57 min
3/20/2026, 3:15:41 AM1 trades$10 min
3/20/2026, 3:21:29 AM7 trades$86 min
3/20/2026, 4:35:23 AM1 trades$10 min
3/20/2026, 4:45:27 AM10 trades$1219 min
3/20/2026, 5:10:15 AM1 trades$10 min
3/20/2026, 5:17:05 AM4 trades$58 min
3/20/2026, 5:30:45 AM5 trades$58 min
3/20/2026, 5:45:21 AM2 trades$13 min
3/20/2026, 5:55:55 AM2 trades$40 min
3/20/2026, 6:05:29 AM4 trades$36 min
3/20/2026, 7:00:43 AM2 trades$20 min
3/20/2026, 7:06:11 AM1 trades$10 min
3/20/2026, 7:50:23 AM4 trades$49 min
3/20/2026, 8:20:59 AM5 trades$610 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-10
04-05
04-13
04-21
04-29
05-14
05-24

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
12% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
40.3% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event