Polydata

@Chubby-Archeology

#2,742,09919

0xbee39bb37c9d2b51a56504a98b07a0dfea8fac5b

220d· 54 markets · 70 tradesVol: $5,471 @ramilashrff2026-07-03T10:46
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

19
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 54%12/20
Profit Factor 0.34x0/15
HHI 11317/10
Profit Days 31%0/10

Summary

Chubby-Archeology is a relatively low-ranked trader on Polymarket, positioned at #2,742,099 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 401 days, they have executed 70 trades across 52 different markets, generating a total volume of $5,471. Despite a negative net PnL of $-467.61, their win rate stands at a strong 73.0%, supported by a profit factor of 1.35. The trader’s smart score is low at 19/100, indicating a beginner level, and their Sharpe ratio is negative at -0.40, reflecting some risk-adjusted performance challenges.

Chubby-Archeology appears to favor a diverse set of markets rather than concentrating in a particular niche, as evidenced by trading in 52 distinct markets. Their trading style suggests moderate risk tolerance with a focus on manual trading, given the bot score of zero and a low sell percentage of 16%. The equity trend is upward and growing, hinting at gradual portfolio improvement despite the current net loss. However, the absence of weather market activity and a short max drawdown duration of zero days also indicate limited exposure to highly volatile or niche segments.

The key strength of Chubby-Archeology lies in their consistent win rate and profit factor, supported by a notable win streak badge, which demonstrates potential for steady profitability. Nonetheless, the negative overall PnL and low smart score highlight potential inexperience and the risk of capital erosion. Their manual trading approach may lead to slower decision-making or missed opportunities in rapidly changing markets on Polymarket. Continued activity and refinement could help mitigate these risks over time.

Badges

1
Win Streak
6 wins in a row

Categories

2
CRYPTO#1,494,381$-222Vol: $3,155
SPORTS#1,437,107$-23Vol: $65

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-468
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$5,471
Total Redeem
$442
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
54
total markets
Trades
59B / 11S
Daily Volume
$3
Account Age
220d
since Nov 26, 2025

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
54%
29W / 25L events
Realized PnL
$84
Win Rate
73%
27W / 10L
Profit Factor
1.35x
Avg Win
$7
Avg Loss
$-15

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $82 (156.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$34
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$25
Valorant: Team Heretics vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alp$24
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoff$19
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$11
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$8
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$8
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$8
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$7
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$7

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$-64
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs$-23
Games Total: O/U 2.5$-19
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$-12
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$-10
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$-10
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.405
Sortino
-0.367
HHI
1131
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.848
Kelly %
31.1%
Half-Kelly
15.6%
Top-1 market
27.1%
Top-5 markets
59%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
14/24
Extended
Peak Hour
8:00 UTC
Median Gap
6.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
57.4m
between trades
Night Trading
0%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.82
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
48
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.5

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

4 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 365s — typical for humanSize CV 1.82 — diverse, typical for human0% at night — normal sleep pattern14/24 hours — normal hours

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 8:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.1
Single entry
<=1
47 entries
<=2
50 entries
<=5
52 entries
<=10
52 entries
<=20
52 entries
<=50
52 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)10.2%
Mid (20-55c)40.7%
High (>55c)49.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 48.6%

Other$52

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
52

Single bracket

<=1
52 brackets
<=2
52 brackets
<=3
52 brackets
<=4
52 brackets
<=5
52 brackets
<=8
52 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/28/2025, 9:27:31 PM1 trades$70 min
12/4/2025, 1:10:15 PM1 trades$1790 min
12/5/2025, 10:34:07 PM1 trades$160 min
12/17/2025, 12:33:00 PM1 trades$1660 min
12/17/2025, 4:43:32 PM1 trades$1660 min
12/28/2025, 9:06:19 AM1 trades$190 min
1/24/2026, 7:59:54 PM1 trades$450 min
1/26/2026, 7:47:57 AM2 trades$831 min
1/26/2026, 11:36:29 AM1 trades$30 min
1/26/2026, 11:47:39 AM1 trades$100 min
4/29/2026, 3:03:38 PM1 trades$260 min
5/1/2026, 3:33:12 PM1 trades$290 min
5/1/2026, 5:10:34 PM1 trades$190 min
5/7/2026, 3:09:34 PM1 trades$230 min
5/9/2026, 5:42:51 PM1 trades$2180 min
5/17/2026, 5:15:31 PM1 trades$120 min
5/17/2026, 9:06:22 PM2 trades$361 min
5/18/2026, 8:15:48 AM2 trades$113 min
5/18/2026, 10:38:59 AM3 trades$357 min
5/18/2026, 11:35:32 AM1 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-26
11-28
01-01
05-01
05-09
05-18
05-21
06-28

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
15.7% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event