Polydata
Circus-995

@Circus-995

#19945

0x28065f1b88027422274fb33e1e22bf3dad5736e7

583d· 236 markets · 75998 tradesVol: $46,662,9072026-05-19T01:37
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

45
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 5129196.35x15/15
HHI 10610/10
Profit Days 5%0/10

Summary

Circus-995 is an active trader on Polymarket, ranked #199 on the global profit and loss leaderboard. Over 164 days, they have executed 75,998 trades across 211 markets, generating a net PnL of $698,437.65 on a total volume of nearly $47 million. Their Smart Score of 45/100 reflects an average trading skill level, and their portfolio value currently stands at zero, suggesting all gains may have been realized or withdrawn.

The trader’s strategy appears highly active and volume-driven, with a preference for a wide variety of markets rather than specializing in any single category. Circus-995 has a low win rate of 7.6% and a profit factor of 0.03, indicating frequent losses but occasional large wins. Their Sell percentage is modest at 16%, and their Sharpe Ratio is negative (-0.71), reflecting a higher risk profile and volatility in returns. The bot score of 50/100 suggests a combination of automated and manual trading methods, with an emphasis on high-frequency activity.

Circus-995’s key strengths include a strong upward equity trend and recognition as a high roller and profitable trader on Polymarket. However, the low win rate and negative Sharpe Ratio highlight potential concerns around risk management and consistency. Their contrarian style and sniper badge imply opportunistic trades that may yield outsized returns but also carry the risk of significant drawdowns or volatility.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Profitable
PnL $+698,438
Contrarian
55% entries <$0.50
Whale
$12,241,499
High Roller
$74,643/day

Categories

3
₿ CRYPTO#19$707,578Vol: $46,382,827
🏛️ POLITICS#1,542,106$-6,644Vol: $237,524
💰 FINANCE#604,118$-2,497Vol: $42,557

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$698,438
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$46,662,907
Total Redeem
$361,889
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
236
total markets
Trades
63787B / 12211S
Daily Volume
$74,643
Account Age
583d
since Oct 13, 2024

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
117W / 1L events
Realized PnL
$2,978,478
Win Rate
8%
16W / 194L
Profit Factor
0.03x
Avg Win
$14,568
Avg Loss
$-47,738

Top Winners

Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday?$47,987
Will XRP dip to $1.90 in March?$34,733
Solana above $145 on March 7?$34,681
Will Solana dip to $120 in March?$31,994
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in March?$19,753
Will XRP dip to $2.10 in March?$18,934
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800.00 by March 31?$11,484
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Mar 7?$10,253
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 again by March 31?$6,810
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by January 31, 2025?$5,251

Top Losers

Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14?$-419,560
Ethereum above $2,700 on February 14?$-397,323
Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21?$-334,377
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by February 28, 2025?$-245,723
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by February 28, 2025?$-207,542
Will Solana dip to $160 by February 28 2025?$-205,059
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21?$-200,174
Will Ethereum reach $3,750 in November?$-174,095
Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6?$-173,117
Ripple above $2.70 on February 21?$-171,072

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.710
Sortino
-0.701
HHI
106
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.738
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.4%
Top-5 markets
13.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
505.5
Very active
Markets / Day
1.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
28s
between trades
Avg Gap
3.4m
between trades
Night Trading
22%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.69
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.1

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 28s — typical for humanSize CV 1.69 — diverse, typical for human22% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.12 — human randomness505 trades/day — automation

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
302.3
Heavy DCA
<=1
1 entries
<=2
6 entries
<=5
9 entries
<=10
10 entries
<=20
18 entries
<=50
35 entries
>50
176 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)22.7%
Mid (20-55c)37.9%
High (>55c)39.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 51.3%

Other$-9,027,991

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.8
Events covered
119

Single bracket

<=1
98 brackets
<=2
102 brackets
<=3
104 brackets
<=4
107 brackets
<=5
109 brackets
<=8
116 brackets
>8
3 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/13/2024, 9:35:12 PM1 trades$20 min
10/14/2024, 2:28:18 PM1 trades$860 min
10/14/2024, 2:42:44 PM2 trades$92 min
10/14/2024, 2:51:44 PM1 trades$40 min
10/14/2024, 3:30:02 PM1 trades$1,9750 min
10/14/2024, 3:36:34 PM1 trades$5,4510 min
10/15/2024, 12:07:38 AM1 trades$180 min
10/15/2024, 12:15:16 AM1 trades$40 min
10/15/2024, 1:07:49 AM1 trades$180 min
10/15/2024, 1:26:29 AM2 trades$1270 min
10/15/2024, 3:39:57 AM1 trades$640 min
10/15/2024, 5:58:00 AM1 trades$10 min
10/15/2024, 6:35:28 AM2 trades$1910 min
10/15/2024, 6:44:14 AM2 trades$3280 min
10/15/2024, 6:53:56 AM1 trades$160 min
10/15/2024, 7:01:39 AM2 trades$1521 min
10/15/2024, 7:08:25 AM2 trades$4330 min
10/15/2024, 7:37:47 AM3 trades$1991 min
10/15/2024, 7:56:57 AM3 trades$791 min
10/15/2024, 8:12:03 AM1 trades$1780 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-18
11-08
11-30
12-22
01-15
02-05
03-12

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
16.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 302.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.8 br/event