Polydata

@Cluttered-Intestine

#7,58948

0x17e0504da9a42b1ba021e5e22802f34a42bffe5b

52d· 258 markets · 3178 tradesVol: $325,1572026-06-21T18:18
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

48
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 51%10/20
Profit Factor 1.29x6/15
Sharpe 0.1553/15
Sortino 0.1872/10
EV $+0.69410/10
HHI 10410/10
Profit Days 57%7/10
DD/Peak 70%0/10

Summary

Cluttered-Intestine is a moderately active Polymarket trader ranked #7589 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 51 days, they have executed 3,178 trades across 240 markets, generating a net profit of $18,544.59 on a total volume of $325,157. Their portfolio value stands at $7,458.73, supported by a Smart Score of 48/100, indicating average overall performance. The trader’s Sharpe Ratio of 0.16 reflects modest risk-adjusted returns, while a profit factor of 1.56 and a 55% win rate suggest consistent profitability.

This trader focuses exclusively on weather markets, demonstrating a specialized strategy with a contrarian and dollar-cost averaging approach. Cluttered-Intestine tends to hold positions rather than sell frequently, with only 12% of trades involving selling. Their timing appears steady, avoiding prolonged drawdowns as indicated by a max drawdown duration of zero days. The semi-bot score of 40/100 implies a mixed manual and automated trading style, balancing systematic methods with discretionary decisions.

Cluttered-Intestine’s key strengths include a profitable and upward equity trend, a disciplined hedging technique, and expertise in weather-related predictions. However, the relatively low Sharpe Ratio and moderate Smart Score highlight potential risks in volatility and strategy robustness. Reliance on a niche market segment and limited selling activity may also expose the trader to specific market fluctuations or liquidity constraints on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Profitable
PnL $+18,545
Contrarian
60% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 11.6 entries/market
Weather Pro
100% weather
Hedger
avg 2.4 brackets/event
Win Streak
14 wins in a row
Whale
$116,986
High Roller
$2,279/day

Categories

1
🌤️ WEATHER#76$18,545Vol: $325,157

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$18,545
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$325,157
Total Redeem
$90,632
Portfolio
$7,459
Predictions
258
total markets
Trades
2782B / 396S
Daily Volume
$2,279
Account Age
52d
since Apr 30, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$2,946
Vol: $17,825
Week
$9,029
Vol: $17,825
Month
$10,050
Vol: $166,332
All Time
$18,545
Vol: $325,157

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
54%
56W / 47L events
Realized PnL
$8,790
Win Rate
55%
115W / 94L
Profit Factor
1.56x
Avg Win
$292
Avg Loss
$-229

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $4,627 (38.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F $1,605
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F $1,530
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F $1,492
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17?$1,342
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F $1,265
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May$1,158
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F $1,150
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F $1,103
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F $936
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May$895

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F $-4,065
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May$-1,246
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May$-989
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F $-924
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F $-690
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F $-649
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F $-588
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7?$-588
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 1?$-587
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 22?$-532

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.155
Sortino
0.187
HHI
104
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.694
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.8%
Top-5 markets
13.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
61.9
Very active
Markets / Day
4.7
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
11:00 UTC
Median Gap
31s
between trades
Avg Gap
22.3m
between trades
Night Trading
3%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.67
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.1

Bot Detection

#6
40
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 31s — typical for humanSize CV 2.67 — diverse, typical for human3% at night — normal sleep pattern22/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.14 — human randomness62 trades/day — mass trading

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 11:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
11.6
Heavy DCA
<=1
36 entries
<=2
60 entries
<=5
101 entries
<=10
149 entries
<=20
203 entries
<=50
234 entries
>50
6 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)25.2%
Mid (20-55c)39.9%
High (>55c)34.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 76.5%

New York City$7,145
Madrid$5,241
London$364
Tel Aviv$285
Dallas$-105
Atlanta$-839

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.4
Events covered
100

Moderate coverage

<=1
19 brackets
<=2
54 brackets
<=3
88 brackets
<=4
99 brackets
<=5
100 brackets
<=8
100 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/1/2026, 10:00:06 AM5 trades$1772 min
5/1/2026, 10:08:32 AM1 trades$280 min
5/1/2026, 10:34:48 AM4 trades$790 min
5/1/2026, 10:57:12 AM2 trades$290 min
5/1/2026, 11:13:24 AM4 trades$1320 min
5/1/2026, 11:23:04 AM1 trades$460 min
5/1/2026, 11:41:34 AM4 trades$960 min
5/1/2026, 8:43:24 PM1 trades$30 min
5/1/2026, 8:50:18 PM3 trades$33 min
5/2/2026, 2:18:16 PM2 trades$411 min
5/2/2026, 5:03:36 PM11 trades$1634 min
5/2/2026, 5:54:44 PM3 trades$380 min
5/3/2026, 8:24:44 AM5 trades$4935 min
5/3/2026, 8:36:18 AM2 trades$455 min
5/3/2026, 8:53:58 AM3 trades$700 min
5/3/2026, 9:04:58 AM1 trades$200 min
5/3/2026, 11:40:46 AM1 trades$1070 min
5/3/2026, 12:22:54 PM2 trades$2460 min
5/3/2026, 2:36:48 PM2 trades$3555 min
5/3/2026, 2:58:16 PM1 trades$30 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-01
05-08
05-15
05-25
06-02
06-09
06-18
06-21

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
100% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
12.5% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 11.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.4 br/event