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Cold-Motherinlaw

@Cold-Motherinlaw

#2,910,67392

0x19ed8c03dea31c78cd7a30c78025548b101a6feb

174d· 321 markets · 1868 tradesVol: $2,607,132 @unknown_caps2026-06-27T02:08
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

92
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 62%16/20
Profit Factor 27.21x15/15
Sharpe 0.56711/15
Sortino 13.83510/10
EV $+0.26810/10
HHI 40710/10
Profit Days 73%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Cold-Motherinlaw is a highly active trader on Polymarket with 1,868 trades across 288 markets over 448 days. Despite a substantial total trading volume exceeding $2.6 million, their net PnL stands at a negative $10,138.57, placing them at rank #2,910,673 on the global leaderboard. The trader holds an elite Smart Score of 92/100, indicating strong overall trading skills. Their portfolio value is currently zero, and the Sharpe ratio of 0.57 suggests moderate risk-adjusted returns.

The trading style of Cold-Motherinlaw leans towards frequent, high-volume activity with a nearly balanced win rate of 49.8%. They demonstrate a preference for diverse markets rather than weather-related events, which make up only 4% of their trades. Their low sell percentage of 13% and high profit factor of 27.21 imply a tendency to hold positions strategically, possibly using dollar-cost averaging indicated by their DCA Master badge. The short max drawdown duration and stable equity trend suggest disciplined timing and risk management.

Cold-Motherinlaw’s strengths lie in consistent execution, as evidenced by badges like Sniper and Consistent, and their ability to maintain a flat equity trend while trading heavily. However, the significant negative net PnL and zero portfolio value raise concerns about overall profitability. Their moderate Sharpe ratio and low bot score further imply human-driven decisions that may benefit from refinement in strategy or market selection to improve long-term outcomes.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 62%
DCA Master
avg 5.7 entries/market
Win Streak
20 wins in a row
Whale
$133,645
Consistent
35/48 days
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

7
SPORTS#1,753,631$-9,249Vol: $2,408,620
🎭 CULTURE#791,276$-517Vol: $163,069
CRYPTO#1,308,655$-40Vol: $17,027
📈 ECONOMICS#618,641$-25Vol: $12,599
🌤️ WEATHER#275,754$-140Vol: $2,711
🏛️ POLITICS#1,317,403$-16Vol: $2,295
💰 FINANCE#461,180$-1Vol: $50

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-10,139
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,607,132
Total Redeem
$35,273
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
321
total markets
Trades
1631B / 237S
Daily Volume
$298
Account Age
174d
since Jan 24, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$71
Vol: $244
Month
$-3,490
Vol: $99,982
All Time
$-10,139
Vol: $2,607,132

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
80%
126W / 31L events
Realized PnL
$26,016
Win Rate
50%
120W / 112L
Profit Factor
27.21x
Avg Win
$209
Avg Loss
$-8

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $8,251 (34.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

Knicks vs. Spurs$4,940
76ers vs. Knicks$2,008
Knicks vs. Cavaliers$1,303
Lakers vs. Thunder$1,198
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?$958
Knicks vs. Spurs$866
Cavaliers vs. Pistons$860
Timberwolves vs. Spurs$751
Raptors vs. Cavaliers$744
Knicks vs. Cavaliers$602

Top Losers

Spurs vs. Timberwolves$-262
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 26?$-123
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 4AM ET$-91
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$-64
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$-61
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2AM ET$-47
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$-32
XRP Up or Down - January 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET$-27
XRP Up or Down - January 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$-23
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 9AM ET$-19

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.567
Sortino
13.835
HHI
407
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.268
Kelly %
23.9%
Half-Kelly
11.9%
Top-1 market
11.4%
Top-5 markets
38.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
12.1
Active
Markets / Day
1.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
7:00 UTC
Median Gap
10s
between trades
Avg Gap
38.9m
between trades
Night Trading
5%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.83
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
27.6

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 10s — suspiciously fastSize CV 6.83 — diverse, typical for human5% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.03 — human randomness12 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 7:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
5.7
Active DCA
<=1
144 entries
<=2
175 entries
<=5
215 entries
<=10
243 entries
<=20
268 entries
<=50
286 entries
>50
2 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)12.6%
Mid (20-55c)36.2%
High (>55c)51.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 62.2%

Other$23,791
Paris$404
Atlanta$128
Miami$3
Denver$2
Milan$1
Madrid$0
Up or Down$0
Houston$-0
Chicago$-1
Helsinki$-1
Seoul$-1
Dallas$-2
San Francisco$-2
Los Angeles$-2
Toronto$-2
London$-129

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
201

Single bracket

<=1
183 brackets
<=2
193 brackets
<=3
194 brackets
<=4
196 brackets
<=5
197 brackets
<=8
198 brackets
>8
3 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/20/2026, 2:38:04 PM41 trades$3181 min
1/20/2026, 2:52:18 PM63 trades$1,3398 min
1/20/2026, 3:19:18 PM20 trades$2431 min
1/20/2026, 3:26:18 PM61 trades$1,5505 min
1/20/2026, 3:41:08 PM98 trades$2,0118 min
1/20/2026, 4:06:32 PM63 trades$5646 min
1/21/2026, 6:08:26 AM684 trades$1,33889 min
1/21/2026, 7:49:26 AM33 trades$561 min
1/21/2026, 8:05:40 AM16 trades$1141 min
1/21/2026, 8:12:28 AM1 trades$10 min
1/21/2026, 9:21:24 AM103 trades$2215 min
1/21/2026, 9:34:10 AM65 trades$1143 min
1/21/2026, 9:51:12 AM28 trades$1081 min
1/21/2026, 10:03:34 AM29 trades$991 min
1/21/2026, 10:14:36 AM11 trades$1900 min
1/22/2026, 10:45:08 AM1 trades$10 min
1/22/2026, 11:56:26 AM1 trades$20 min
1/22/2026, 12:03:26 PM1 trades$130 min
1/23/2026, 1:56:24 PM3 trades$88 min
1/23/2026, 2:25:34 PM2 trades$110 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-07
02-03
05-05
05-16
05-26
06-21

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
3.8% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
12.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 5.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event