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Complete-Fly

@Complete-Fly

#11155

0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292

740d· 1672 markets · 11759 tradesVol: $50,510,555 @DropperPM2026-07-07T03:33
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

55
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 96%20/20
Profit Factor 57.22x15/15
EV $+25.15010/10
HHI 14310/10
Profit Days 30%0/10
DD/Peak 27523%0/10

Summary

Complete-Fly is an experienced and moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #111 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 799 days, they have completed 11,759 trades across 282 markets, resulting in a net profit of approximately $1.46 million. Despite a substantial total trading volume exceeding $50 million, Complete-Fly’s portfolio value currently stands at about $171,664, with an average Smart Score of 55 and a negative Sharpe Ratio of -0.40, indicating some volatility in returns.

The trading style of Complete-Fly appears to be high-frequency with a preference for a wide variety of markets but no exposure to weather markets. Their relatively low win rate of 27.7% combined with a profit factor of 0.07 suggests that many trades may be small or speculative, relying on occasional large wins rather than consistent profits. The trader uses a mix of buying and selling strategies, with sell orders comprising 27% of activity. The badges earned, including Sniper and High Roller, imply a focus on precision and sizable positions, while the declining equity trend suggests recent challenges.

Complete-Fly’s strengths include extensive market experience and the ability to generate large volumes of trades, which may provide opportunities to capitalize on short-term market inefficiencies. However, the low profit factor, negative Sharpe ratio, and downward equity trend highlight potential risks related to inconsistent performance and portfolio drawdowns. Additionally, the low Bot Score suggests human decision-making speed, which might impact reaction times in fast-moving markets. Traders observing Complete-Fly on Polymarket should note these dynamics when assessing their activity.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 96%
Profitable
PnL $+1,457,288
Win Streak
11 wins in a row
Whale
$14,196,283
High Roller
$17,768/day

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#73$574,003Vol: $23,553,527
CRYPTO#45$430,788Vol: $9,275,198
🎭 CULTURE#17$196,196Vol: $7,787,489
📈 ECONOMICS#419$14,745Vol: $2,800,322
SPORTS#12,558$3,370Vol: $2,527,328
💻 TECH#5$120,085Vol: $1,796,572
📢 MENTIONS#14$97,725Vol: $1,455,609
💰 FINANCE#250$18,349Vol: $567,878
🌤️ WEATHER#539$3,505Vol: $333,160

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,457,288
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$50,510,555
Total Redeem
$2,647,053
Portfolio
$171,664
Predictions
1672
total markets
Trades
8610B / 3149S
Daily Volume
$17,768
Account Age
740d
since Jul 5, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-3,276
Vol: $0
Week
$-5,406
Vol: $0
Month
$11,236
Vol: $576,862
All Time
$1,457,288
Vol: $50,510,555

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
207W / 3L events
Realized PnL
$5,060,314
Win Rate
28%
71W / 185L
Profit Factor
0.07x
Avg Win
$9,142
Avg Loss
$-49,323

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$138,534
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$130,065
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$63,707
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$37,899
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?$30,908
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the$22,661
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$18,158
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$14,485
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the$11,790
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$11,166

Top Losers

US government shutdown Saturday?$-527,619
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$-375,341
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$-331,818
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$-312,765
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?$-312,331
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?$-304,723
Netanyahu out by March 31?$-281,921
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?$-218,005
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?$-201,927
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$-181,179

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.396
Sortino
-0.351
HHI
143
Diversified
EV per $1
$25.151
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
4.3%
Top-5 markets
17.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
19.1
Active
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
44.3m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.05
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.6

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 79s — typical for humanSize CV 4.05 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.11 — human randomness19 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
30.5
Heavy DCA
<=1
28 entries
<=2
49 entries
<=5
82 entries
<=10
123 entries
<=20
165 entries
<=50
233 entries
>50
49 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)23.5%
Mid (20-55c)27.3%
High (>55c)49.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 43.1%

Paris$0
New York City$-27,202
Seoul$-149,850
Other$-8,298,708

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
225

Single bracket

<=1
191 brackets
<=2
214 brackets
<=3
221 brackets
<=4
221 brackets
<=5
223 brackets
<=8
225 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/25/2024, 2:35:25 AM1 trades$2850 min
10/25/2024, 3:48:27 AM2 trades$5,9672 min
10/25/2024, 3:57:03 AM4 trades$2,7851 min
11/2/2024, 11:06:47 PM1 trades$10 min
11/2/2024, 11:14:12 PM1 trades$500 min
11/2/2024, 11:46:47 PM1 trades$180 min
11/2/2024, 11:52:49 PM1 trades$390 min
11/3/2024, 12:01:01 AM1 trades$60 min
11/3/2024, 12:07:19 AM1 trades$540 min
11/3/2024, 12:16:29 AM3 trades$404 min
11/3/2024, 12:27:18 AM1 trades$1920 min
11/3/2024, 12:33:34 AM1 trades$2560 min
11/5/2024, 1:35:08 AM4 trades$8405 min
11/5/2024, 1:50:22 AM1 trades$1740 min
11/5/2024, 2:03:48 AM2 trades$3492 min
11/5/2024, 2:16:16 AM13 trades$5,51121 min
11/5/2024, 2:53:50 AM1 trades$2,6270 min
11/12/2024, 3:37:43 PM1 trades$1040 min
11/12/2024, 6:10:57 PM1 trades$310 min
11/12/2024, 6:18:09 PM1 trades$1050 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
04-20
07-30
12-01
04-14
05-21
01-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0.4% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
26.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 30.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event