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Concrete-Caramel

@Concrete-Caramel

#3,01060

0x1f66796b45581868376365aef54b51eb84184c8d

176d· 2846 markets · 17826 tradesVol: $6,644,428 @Mask4che2026-06-27T05:43
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

60
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 13%0/20
Profit Factor 1.64x11/15
Sharpe 0.2976/15
Sortino 0.9199/10
EV $+0.62810/10
HHI 4810/10
Profit Days 50%5/10
DD/Peak 8%10/10

Summary

Concrete-Caramel is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #3010 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $54,557.13. Over nearly a year of trading, they have executed 17,826 trades across 1,714 markets, generating a substantial total volume of $6.64 million. Their win rate of 79.5% and profit factor of 4.71 indicate consistent profitability, supported by a stable portfolio value of $8,858.11 and a good smart score of 60/100.

The trading style of Concrete-Caramel leans heavily toward weather-related markets, which make up 95% of their activity. This preference suggests a focused niche expertise. Their risk profile appears moderate; with a low sell percentage of 12% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.30, the trader demonstrates steady but cautious engagement. The zero-day max drawdown duration and the high bot score of 80/100 imply significant automation in their approach, likely contributing to disciplined timing and execution patterns.

Concrete-Caramel’s strengths include a high win rate, strong profit factor, and effective use of automated strategies, which help maintain consistent returns with minimal drawdowns. However, their concentrated exposure to weather markets and relatively flat equity trend may pose risks if market conditions shift suddenly. The trader’s contrarian and DCA master badges highlight adaptability, but reliance on a narrow market segment could limit upside potential.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Profitable
PnL $+54,557
Lottery Player
79% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
93% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 9.2 entries/market
Weather Pro
95% weather
Bot
Score 80/100
Win Streak
18 wins in a row
Whale
$225,694
Cool Head
DD 8%

Categories

9
🌤️ WEATHER#9$68,089Vol: $5,667,068
🏛️ POLITICS#1,603,961$-7,278Vol: $569,744
📈 ECONOMICS#665,067$-3,642Vol: $193,174
🎭 CULTURE#795,956$-1,015Vol: $87,156
💰 FINANCE#633,765$-1,436Vol: $84,735
SPORTS#64,132$321Vol: $27,667
💻 TECH#229,072$-50Vol: $5,000
📢 MENTIONS#162,338$-212Vol: $4,298
CRYPTO#277,727$5Vol: $806

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$54,557
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$6,644,428
Total Redeem
$51,819
Portfolio
$8,858
Predictions
2846
total markets
Trades
15764B / 2062S
Daily Volume
$634
Account Age
176d
since Jan 8, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$191
Vol: $7,585
Week
$3,657
Vol: $93,931
Month
$6,418
Vol: $512,488
All Time
$54,557
Vol: $6,644,428

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
24%
205W / 666L events
Realized PnL
$205,301
Win Rate
80%
101W / 26L
Profit Factor
4.71x
Avg Win
$373
Avg Loss
$-307

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $9,575 (32.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 17?$3,932
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April $3,462
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 21?$2,181
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F $1,977
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26?$1,941
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10?$1,906
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6?$1,883
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 24?$1,585
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F $1,560
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on Marc$1,361

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 9?$-1,273
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 31?$-1,143
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F $-934
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F $-607
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9?$-578
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12?$-376
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 25?$-347
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F $-341
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 5?$-270
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April $-260

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.297
Sortino
0.919
HHI
48
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.628
Kelly %
72.9%
Half-Kelly
36.4%
Top-1 market
3.3%
Top-5 markets
9.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
105.3
Very active
Markets / Day
10.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
4:00 UTC
Median Gap
54s
between trades
Avg Gap
14.0m
between trades
Night Trading
38%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.68
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.3

Bot Detection

#6
80
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 54s — typical for humanSize CV 4.68 — diverse, typical for human38% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.11 — human randomness105 trades/day — automation10 markets/day — mass coverage2438 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 4:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
9.2
Active DCA
<=1
381 entries
<=2
584 entries
<=5
972 entries
<=10
1250 entries
<=20
1505 entries
<=50
1676 entries
>50
30 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)78.7%
Mid (20-55c)15.2%
High (>55c)6.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 72.3%

Seoul$19,726
New York City$3,772
Dallas$1,483
Hong Kong$1,134
London$1,113
Paris$770
Atlanta$472
Wellington$317
Seattle$306
Other$220
Ankara$217
Moscow$177
Munich$154
Toronto$13
Milan$5
Warsaw$3
Los Angeles$0
Chicago$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.1
Events covered
834

Moderate coverage

<=1
365 brackets
<=2
614 brackets
<=3
729 brackets
<=4
788 brackets
<=5
809 brackets
<=8
832 brackets
>8
2 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/8/2026, 11:33:52 PM1 trades$30 min
1/9/2026, 12:29:20 AM3 trades$01 min
1/9/2026, 12:44:48 AM1 trades$40 min
1/9/2026, 3:03:52 AM1 trades$00 min
1/9/2026, 3:12:26 AM1 trades$00 min
1/9/2026, 4:26:10 AM2 trades$231 min
1/9/2026, 4:55:12 AM1 trades$70 min
1/9/2026, 5:49:38 AM2 trades$01 min
1/9/2026, 5:56:54 AM31 trades$317 min
1/9/2026, 8:25:50 AM1 trades$00 min
1/9/2026, 9:37:06 AM1 trades$200 min
1/9/2026, 10:22:26 AM1 trades$40 min
1/9/2026, 12:05:50 PM1 trades$60 min
1/9/2026, 12:18:48 PM1 trades$80 min
1/9/2026, 1:42:04 PM2 trades$4083 min
1/9/2026, 1:57:58 PM2 trades$202 min
1/9/2026, 2:20:48 PM1 trades$350 min
1/9/2026, 4:14:36 PM2 trades$34 min
1/9/2026, 4:25:58 PM1 trades$10 min
1/9/2026, 6:34:54 PM1 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
02-04
03-02
03-28
04-23
06-03
11-07

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
94.9% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
11.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 9.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.1 br/event