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Concrete-Caramel

@Concrete-Caramel

#3,77566

0x1f66796b45581868376365aef54b51eb84184c8d

132d· 2277 markets · 15060 tradesVol: $5,773,270 @Mask4che2026-05-16T00:52
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

66
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 15%0/20
Profit Factor 1.80x13/15
Sharpe 0.3697/15
Sortino 1.14810/10
EV $+0.84110/10
HHI 5110/10
Profit Days 56%6/10
DD/Peak 5%10/10

Summary

Concrete-Caramel is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranking #3775 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $36,616.52. Over nearly a year of trading (356 days), they executed 15,060 trades across 1,309 markets, accumulating a total volume of $5.77 million. Their portfolio value remains modest at $4.58, supported by a solid win rate of 77.9% and a profit factor of 3.03, reflecting consistent profitability and efficient trade management.

The trading style of Concrete-Caramel is characterized by a strong preference for weather-related markets, which comprise 94% of their activity. Their approach leans toward automated trading, as indicated by a high bot score of 80/100, with a strategy that favors frequent buying and limited selling (only 12%). This suggests a long-biased, dollar-cost averaging pattern with a contrarian tilt, allowing them to capitalize on market inefficiencies over time. The trader’s risk profile appears moderate, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.37 and no prolonged drawdowns, indicating stable but cautious exposure to market fluctuations.

Concrete-Caramel’s key strengths include a robust win rate, strong profit factor, and disciplined use of automation, which contribute to steady equity performance despite a flat overall trend. Their expertise in weather markets and contrarian trading adds a niche advantage on Polymarket. Potential risks involve the relatively low portfolio value and a modest Sharpe ratio, which may limit scalability and returns during volatile periods. Nonetheless, Concrete-Caramel’s consistent execution and diversified market engagement support resilient trading outcomes.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Profitable
PnL $+36,617
Lottery Player
81% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
95% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 10.2 entries/market
Weather Pro
94% weather
Bot
Score 80/100
Win Streak
11 wins in a row
Whale
$133,057
Cool Head
DD 5%

Categories

9
🌤️ WEATHER#20$46,669Vol: $4,801,613
🏛️ POLITICS#1,535,681$-4,820Vol: $569,670
📈 ECONOMICS#638,407$-3,642Vol: $193,174
💰 FINANCE#600,193$-1,436Vol: $84,735
🎭 CULTURE#712,060$-36Vol: $83,648
SPORTS#94,033$129Vol: $30,408
💻 TECH#218,548$-50Vol: $5,000
📢 MENTIONS#156,572$-212Vol: $4,298
CRYPTO#183,183$15Vol: $724

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$36,617
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$5,773,270
Total Redeem
$6,493
Portfolio
$5
Predictions
2277
total markets
Trades
13266B / 1794S
Daily Volume
$374
Account Age
132d
since Jan 8, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$39
Vol: $0
Week
$-628
Vol: $2,425
Month
$-1,403
Vol: $53,991
All Time
$36,617
Vol: $5,773,270

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
28%
197W / 507L events
Realized PnL
$165,589
Win Rate
78%
60W / 17L
Profit Factor
3.03x
Avg Win
$360
Avg Loss
$-419

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $9,575 (66.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 17?$3,932
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April $3,462
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 21?$2,181
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F $1,977
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on Marc$1,361
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on$1,240
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 6?$612
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on March 30?$543
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 1?$539
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April $532

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April $-1,584
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 9?$-1,273
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April $-1,216
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F $-594
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on Apr$-437
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 25?$-347
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 23?$-265
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April $-260
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April $-251
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F $-185

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.369
Sortino
1.148
HHI
51
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.841
Kelly %
70.9%
Half-Kelly
35.4%
Top-1 market
2.4%
Top-5 markets
10%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
122.2
Very active
Markets / Day
10.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
4:00 UTC
Median Gap
50s
between trades
Avg Gap
12.8m
between trades
Night Trading
36%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.38
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.3

Bot Detection

#6
80
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 50s — typical for humanSize CV 4.38 — diverse, typical for human36% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.11 — human randomness122 trades/day — automation11 markets/day — mass coverage1975 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 4:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
10.2
Heavy DCA
<=1
267 entries
<=2
405 entries
<=5
693 entries
<=10
916 entries
<=20
1127 entries
<=50
1272 entries
>50
29 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)81.3%
Mid (20-55c)14.7%
High (>55c)3.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 73%

Seoul$8,126
New York City$1,566
Dallas$1,361
Buenos Aires$1,240
Wellington$550
Seattle$306
Tokyo$298
Miami$280
Atlanta$275
Paris$225
Ankara$217
London$182
Shanghai$147
Munich$72
Los Angeles$69
Chicago$43
Toronto$22
Other$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2
Events covered
645

Moderate coverage

<=1
288 brackets
<=2
474 brackets
<=3
566 brackets
<=4
613 brackets
<=5
629 brackets
<=8
644 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/8/2026, 11:33:52 PM1 trades$30 min
1/9/2026, 12:29:20 AM3 trades$01 min
1/9/2026, 12:44:48 AM1 trades$40 min
1/9/2026, 3:03:52 AM1 trades$00 min
1/9/2026, 3:12:26 AM1 trades$00 min
1/9/2026, 4:26:10 AM2 trades$231 min
1/9/2026, 4:55:12 AM1 trades$70 min
1/9/2026, 5:49:38 AM2 trades$01 min
1/9/2026, 5:56:54 AM31 trades$317 min
1/9/2026, 8:25:50 AM1 trades$00 min
1/9/2026, 9:37:06 AM1 trades$200 min
1/9/2026, 10:22:26 AM1 trades$40 min
1/9/2026, 12:05:50 PM1 trades$60 min
1/9/2026, 12:18:48 PM1 trades$80 min
1/9/2026, 1:42:04 PM2 trades$4083 min
1/9/2026, 1:57:58 PM2 trades$202 min
1/9/2026, 2:20:48 PM1 trades$350 min
1/9/2026, 4:14:36 PM2 trades$34 min
1/9/2026, 4:25:58 PM1 trades$10 min
1/9/2026, 6:34:54 PM1 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
01-29
02-18
03-10
03-30
04-19

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
94.4% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
11.9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 10.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2 br/event