Polydata

@Constant-Instinct

#2,537,06928

0xfbf6fa658f835bd2f0a37cc9c9628e903ea2e04b

28d· 35 markets · 90 tradesVol: $7,080 @CryptoKKOG2026-05-24T17:36
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

28
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 56%13/20
Profit Factor 0.56x0/15
HHI 52310/10
Profit Days 50%5/10
DD/Peak 5825%0/10

Summary

Constant-Instinct is a moderately active Polymarket trader with 90 trades across 35 markets over 243 days. Despite this experience, their overall net PnL stands at -$411.72, placing them at rank #2,537,069 on the global leaderboard. Their smart score of 28/100 and a profit factor of 0.53 indicate below-average performance, with a win rate just under 50%. The portfolio value is currently zero, and the Sharpe ratio is negative, reflecting risk-adjusted losses.

This trader appears to take a relatively balanced but cautious approach, with a sell percentage of 34% suggesting some portfolio rebalancing. Constant-Instinct does not focus on weather markets and engages manually rather than using bots. The equity trend shows some upward movement, which may indicate incremental improvement or recovery attempts. Their trading style likely involves moderate risk but lacks strong timing precision given the negative Sharpe and profit factor.

Constant-Instinct’s key strength is persistence and diversity, trading across many markets with an upward equity trend. However, the low smart score and negative PnL highlight potential issues in strategy effectiveness or market selection. Without automation or specialized focus, they may face challenges improving performance consistently on Polymarket.

Categories

3
SPORTS#1,583,382$-418Vol: $5,422
🏛️ POLITICS#289,248$1Vol: $1,614
CRYPTO#261,378$5Vol: $44

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-412
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$7,080
Total Redeem
$1,589
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
35
total markets
Trades
59B / 31S
Daily Volume
$12
Account Age
28d
since Apr 26, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-310
Vol: $443
Week
$-66
Vol: $443
Month
$-387
Vol: $6,088
All Time
$-412
Vol: $7,080

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
52%
17W / 16L events
Realized PnL
$-412
Win Rate
49%
17W / 16L
Profit Factor
0.53x
Avg Win
$28
Avg Loss
$-55

Top Winners

Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings$106
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad$69
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers B$61
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants$61
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad$42
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings$33
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals$30
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super King$20
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians$16
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants$12

Top Losers

Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals$-310
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings$-189
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings$-164
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals$-70
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers $-55
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengalur$-39
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Rid$-14
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians$-10
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengal$-10
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Kni$-7

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.170
Sortino
-0.151
HHI
523
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.147
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
11.1%
Top-5 markets
37.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
3.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.3
Active Hours
11/24
Normal
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
51.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
4.6h
between trades
Night Trading
0%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.34
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.2

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

4 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 3105s — typical for humanSize CV 1.34 — diverse, typical for human0% at night — normal sleep pattern11/24 hours — normal hours

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.7
Single entry
<=1
22 entries
<=2
29 entries
<=5
35 entries
<=10
35 entries
<=20
35 entries
<=50
35 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)13.6%
Mid (20-55c)35.6%
High (>55c)50.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 47.2%

Lucknow$130
Los Angeles$-2
Other$-539

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
34

Single bracket

<=1
33 brackets
<=2
34 brackets
<=3
34 brackets
<=4
34 brackets
<=5
34 brackets
<=8
34 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/26/2026, 4:32:20 PM1 trades$990 min
4/26/2026, 5:57:58 PM2 trades$944 min
4/27/2026, 2:51:06 PM1 trades$100 min
4/28/2026, 12:51:42 PM1 trades$700 min
4/29/2026, 11:33:38 AM1 trades$50 min
4/29/2026, 11:49:42 AM1 trades$60 min
4/29/2026, 5:06:14 PM1 trades$880 min
4/29/2026, 5:14:18 PM1 trades$150 min
5/1/2026, 5:41:16 PM1 trades$1720 min
5/2/2026, 10:42:02 AM1 trades$100 min
5/2/2026, 10:50:20 AM1 trades$100 min
5/2/2026, 4:19:08 PM1 trades$100 min
5/3/2026, 9:59:12 AM1 trades$1000 min
5/3/2026, 10:42:36 AM1 trades$1100 min
5/3/2026, 11:52:04 AM1 trades$50 min
5/3/2026, 12:44:34 PM1 trades$10 min
5/3/2026, 1:45:34 PM1 trades$1890 min
5/4/2026, 2:18:00 PM1 trades$740 min
5/5/2026, 3:43:12 PM1 trades$1340 min
5/6/2026, 3:55:40 PM2 trades$1640 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
05-08
05-13
05-21
05-24
05-26
05-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
34.4% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event