Polydata

@Constant-Instinct

#2,753,15127

0xfbf6fa658f835bd2f0a37cc9c9628e903ea2e04b

72d· 36 markets · 91 tradesVol: $7,168 @CryptoKKOG2026-07-07T00:24
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

27
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 55%13/20
Profit Factor 0.54x0/15
HHI 51310/10
Profit Days 48%5/10
DD/Peak 6239%0/10

Summary

Constant-Instinct is a relatively low-ranked trader on Polymarket, positioned at #2,753,151 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 243 days, they have executed 91 trades across 36 markets with a total volume of $7,168. Their net profit and loss stands at negative $441.52, indicating losses overall. The trader’s win rate is slightly below 50%, and their portfolio value currently sits at zero, reflecting an ongoing downward equity trend.

The trading style of Constant-Instinct appears to be diversified across multiple markets but lacks a focused specialization, as evidenced by activity in 36 different markets without a clear preference for particular types. Given the absence of weather market trades and a sell percentage of 34%, the trader seems to hold positions for moderate durations rather than quick flips. The below-average Smart Score of 27 and negative Sharpe ratio of -0.18 suggest a higher risk profile with inconsistent timing and limited risk-adjusted returns.

Constant-Instinct’s main strength might lie in their willingness to engage with a broad set of markets on Polymarket, which could provide learning opportunities. However, the negative profit factor of 0.53 and sustained losses highlight potential issues in trade selection or risk management. The lack of badges and declining equity trend suggest this trader faces challenges in strategy effectiveness and market timing, which may limit long-term profitability.

Categories

3
SPORTS#1,725,094$-448Vol: $5,509
🏛️ POLITICS#305,140$1Vol: $1,614
CRYPTO#278,150$5Vol: $44

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-442
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$7,168
Total Redeem
$1,589
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
36
total markets
Trades
60B / 31S
Daily Volume
$12
Account Age
72d
since Apr 26, 2026

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
50%
17W / 17L events
Realized PnL
$-412
Win Rate
49%
17W / 16L
Profit Factor
0.53x
Avg Win
$28
Avg Loss
$-55

Top Winners

Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings$106
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad$69
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers B$61
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants$61
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad$42
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings$33
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals$30
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super King$20
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians$16
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants$12

Top Losers

Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals$-310
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings$-189
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings$-164
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals$-70
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers $-55
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengalur$-39
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Rid$-12
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians$-10
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengal$-9
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Kni$-7

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.179
Sortino
-0.161
HHI
514
Moderate
EV per $1
$-14.816
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
11%
Top-5 markets
36.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.9
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.2
Active Hours
11/24
Normal
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
51.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
4.6h
between trades
Night Trading
0%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.34
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.2

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

4 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 3105s — typical for humanSize CV 1.34 — diverse, typical for human0% at night — normal sleep pattern11/24 hours — normal hours

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.7
Single entry
<=1
23 entries
<=2
30 entries
<=5
36 entries
<=10
36 entries
<=20
36 entries
<=50
36 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)13.3%
Mid (20-55c)36.7%
High (>55c)50%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 47.2%

Lucknow$131
Los Angeles$-2
Other$-539

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
35

Single bracket

<=1
34 brackets
<=2
35 brackets
<=3
35 brackets
<=4
35 brackets
<=5
35 brackets
<=8
35 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/26/2026, 4:32:20 PM1 trades$980 min
4/26/2026, 5:57:58 PM2 trades$934 min
4/27/2026, 2:51:06 PM1 trades$90 min
4/28/2026, 12:51:42 PM1 trades$700 min
4/29/2026, 11:33:38 AM1 trades$50 min
4/29/2026, 11:49:42 AM1 trades$60 min
4/29/2026, 5:06:14 PM1 trades$880 min
4/29/2026, 5:14:18 PM1 trades$150 min
5/1/2026, 5:41:16 PM1 trades$1720 min
5/2/2026, 10:42:02 AM1 trades$100 min
5/2/2026, 10:50:20 AM1 trades$100 min
5/2/2026, 4:19:08 PM1 trades$100 min
5/3/2026, 9:59:12 AM1 trades$1000 min
5/3/2026, 10:42:36 AM1 trades$1100 min
5/3/2026, 11:52:04 AM1 trades$50 min
5/3/2026, 12:44:34 PM1 trades$10 min
5/3/2026, 1:45:34 PM1 trades$1890 min
5/4/2026, 2:18:00 PM1 trades$740 min
5/5/2026, 3:43:12 PM1 trades$1340 min
5/6/2026, 3:55:40 PM2 trades$1640 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
05-08
05-13
05-21
05-26
05-31
01-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
34.1% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event