Polydata
Critical-Hurdle

@Critical-Hurdle

#2,872,14238

0x997a313dd6595899c4bb2ca54c2b870123b04cbe

1545d· 3112 markets · 1482 tradesVol: $300,926 @Airdrop_Sheriff2026-07-01T10:23
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

38
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.64x0/15
HHI 8210/10
Profit Days 61%8/10

Summary

Critical-Hurdle is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 1,482 trades across 621 markets over 694 days. Despite a high win rate of 78%, their net PnL stands at negative $1,899.33, placing them at rank #2,872,142 globally. Their total trading volume is substantial at over $300,000, but their portfolio value is currently low at $68.30, reflecting challenges in converting wins to profits.

This trader primarily engages in weather markets, which make up 51% of their activity, and exhibits a balanced approach with a 44% sell rate. Critical-Hurdle’s strategy appears to favor consistent, manual trading with a sniper style, aiming for timely entries and exits. Their profit factor of 0.64 and a below-average Smart Score of 38 suggest a conservative risk profile but some inefficiencies in capitalizing on trades. The equity trend is upward, indicating gradual portfolio growth despite past losses.

Critical-Hurdle’s strengths include a strong win rate and consistent trading patterns, highlighted by badges like Sniper and Win Streak. However, the negative Sharpe ratio and low profit factor point to volatility and suboptimal risk management. The lack of drawdown duration implies quick recovery from losses, but the low Bot Score confirms manual trading, which might limit scalability. Overall, Critical-Hurdle shows promise but faces challenges in turning frequent wins into sustained profitability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

3
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Win Streak
25 wins in a row
Consistent
47/77 days

Categories

9
SPORTS#1,736,944$-1,150Vol: $103,812
📈 ECONOMICS#640,718$-77Vol: $93,227
🌤️ WEATHER#280,834$-251Vol: $40,528
🏛️ POLITICS#1,506,501$-118Vol: $37,897
💰 FINANCE#627,881$-210Vol: $16,950
💻 TECH#229,521$-38Vol: $4,373
CRYPTO#1,097,325$-9Vol: $2,102
🎭 CULTURE#708,472$-18Vol: $1,378
📢 MENTIONS#139,338$-24Vol: $403

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,899
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$300,926
Total Redeem
$784
Portfolio
$68
Predictions
3112
total markets
Trades
837B / 645S
Daily Volume
$25
Account Age
1545d
since Apr 9, 2022

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $90
Week
$-7
Vol: $241
Month
$0
Vol: $90
All Time
$-1,899
Vol: $300,926

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
225W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$4,293
Win Rate
78%
202W / 57L
Profit Factor
0.64x
Avg Win
$14
Avg Loss
$-76

Top Winners

Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24?$113
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?$90
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5$89
Hurricanes vs. Senators$81
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov$62
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?$57
VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5$55
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers$46
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?$45
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5$43

Top Losers

Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5$-419
Wild vs. Avalanche$-399
Wild vs. Avalanche$-312
Celtics vs. 76ers$-311
Will the USA win Gold in Women's Basketball?$-233
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 1.5$-206
Will Alison dos Santos (BRA) win Gold in 400m Hurdles?$-185
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22?$-178
Olympic Basketball: USA vs. Serbia$-173
Stars vs. Wild$-171

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.181
Sortino
-0.182
HHI
82
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.110
Kelly %
1.6%
Half-Kelly
0.8%
Top-1 market
2.7%
Top-5 markets
11.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.1
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.9
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
55s
between trades
Avg Gap
45.0m
between trades
Night Trading
3%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.37
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.5

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 55s — typical for humanSize CV 2.37 — diverse, typical for human3% at night — normal sleep pattern22/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.10 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.4
Single entry
<=1
472 entries
<=2
564 entries
<=5
612 entries
<=10
615 entries
<=20
615 entries
<=50
615 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)16%
Mid (20-55c)21.5%
High (>55c)62.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 78.6%

Madrid$126
Seoul$33
Milan$28
Atlanta$11
Chengdu$8
Miami$0
Shanghai$0
Moscow$0
Wellington$0
London$0
Los Angeles$0
Warsaw$0
Shenzhen$0
Manila$0
Beijing$0
Hong Kong$0
Houston$0
Chicago$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.6
Events covered
399

Single bracket

<=1
269 brackets
<=2
339 brackets
<=3
373 brackets
<=4
395 brackets
<=5
399 brackets
<=8
399 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
8/6/2024, 8:56:01 AM1 trades$50 min
8/6/2024, 9:36:18 AM2 trades$101 min
8/6/2024, 9:50:12 AM2 trades$753 min
8/6/2024, 6:18:06 PM2 trades$100 min
8/7/2024, 2:36:50 PM1 trades$1210 min
8/7/2024, 7:25:16 PM2 trades$2540 min
8/8/2024, 5:28:50 AM7 trades$1380 min
8/8/2024, 2:26:49 PM2 trades$403 min
8/9/2024, 5:56:39 AM1 trades$1810 min
8/9/2024, 5:13:57 PM2 trades$3641 min
8/9/2024, 5:46:07 PM2 trades$3703 min
8/10/2024, 7:36:57 AM2 trades$1691 min
8/10/2024, 12:13:56 PM1 trades$20 min
8/11/2024, 6:28:19 AM2 trades$2283 min
8/24/2024, 3:17:34 PM1 trades$50 min
10/26/2025, 8:26:05 AM1 trades$10 min
10/28/2025, 7:25:21 AM1 trades$10 min
11/25/2025, 6:58:35 PM1 trades$200 min
11/25/2025, 7:26:19 PM1 trades$200 min
11/25/2025, 7:39:03 PM4 trades$1236 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
08-06
04-01
04-19
05-02
05-20
06-07
06-23

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
50.9% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
43.5% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.6 br/event