Polydata

@Crowded-Distance

#79774

0x2974bd0059e48f215c391882976e0f1b4c8c9c23

139d· 213 markets · 2668 tradesVol: $6,762,4372026-07-09T05:22
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

74
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 75%20/20
Profit Factor 1.68x11/15
Sharpe 0.1643/15
Sortino 0.2122/10
EV $+0.48510/10
HHI 43510/10
Profit Days 65%9/10
DD/Peak 26%9/10

Summary

Crowded-Distance is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #797 globally by net profit with a substantial overall PnL of $241,906.79. Over 426 days, they have executed 2,668 trades across 213 different markets, managing a total volume exceeding $6.7 million. Despite their impressive win rate of 86.7% and a profit factor of 2.42, their portfolio value currently stands at $431,229.40, and recent equity trends show a downward pattern.

The trading style of Crowded-Distance leans toward diversified market engagement without a focus on weather markets, indicating selective specialization. Their relatively low sell percentage of 28% and a max drawdown duration of zero days suggest disciplined risk management and an ability to avoid prolonged losses. The trader’s moderate Sharpe ratio of 0.16 points to modest risk-adjusted returns, while a high Smart Score of 74 reflects strong strategic decision-making. Crowded-Distance appears to employ a timing strategy that capitalizes on quick entries and exits, supported by badges like Sniper and DCA Master.

Strengths for Crowded-Distance include a high win rate, consistent profitability, and a large trading volume that demonstrates sustained market engagement. However, the current downward equity trend raises concerns about recent performance sustainability. Additionally, a low bot score indicates manual trading, which can be advantageous for adaptability but may limit scalability. Overall, Crowded-Distance’s performance on Polymarket shows a balanced approach with room to monitor for potential volatility in their trading results.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 75%
Profitable
PnL $+241,907
DCA Master
avg 9.0 entries/market
Win Streak
20 wins in a row
Whale
$2,999,643
Consistent
35/54 days
High Roller
$7,041/day
Cool Head
DD 26%

Categories

5
🏛️ POLITICS#213$228,332Vol: $6,071,800
💰 FINANCE#924$5,628Vol: $278,292
SPORTS#26,656$1,582Vol: $179,155
🎭 CULTURE#4,174$1,290Vol: $26,240
📈 ECONOMICS#630,706$-40Vol: $2,273

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$241,907
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$6,762,437
Total Redeem
$748,133
Portfolio
$431,229
Predictions
213
total markets
Trades
1911B / 757S
Daily Volume
$7,041
Account Age
139d
since Feb 19, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-3,723
Vol: $2,312
Week
$-23,920
Vol: $31,766
Month
$-7,100
Vol: $98,896
All Time
$241,907
Vol: $6,762,437

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
80%
78W / 19L events
Realized PnL
$309,645
Win Rate
87%
157W / 24L
Profit Factor
2.42x
Avg Win
$3,182
Avg Loss
$-8,604

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $233,552 (79.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$112,967
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$67,292
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$53,293
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$46,954
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$27,293
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?$22,368
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$22,287
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?$10,842
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$10,146
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$8,926

Top Losers

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$-107,327
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?$-29,277
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$-15,049
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?$-12,035
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?$-10,182
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?$-6,357
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?$-5,689
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?$-4,612
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$-3,614
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?$-3,590

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.164
Sortino
0.212
HHI
435
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.485
Kelly %
65.8%
Half-Kelly
32.9%
Top-1 market
13.7%
Top-5 markets
39%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
19.1
Active
Markets / Day
1.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
32s
between trades
Avg Gap
36.5m
between trades
Night Trading
29%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.91
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.1

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 32s — typical for humanSize CV 1.91 — diverse, typical for human29% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.76 — human randomness19 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
9
Active DCA
<=1
63 entries
<=2
92 entries
<=5
133 entries
<=10
160 entries
<=20
189 entries
<=50
206 entries
>50
7 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.2%
Mid (20-55c)13.2%
High (>55c)86.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 32.7%

Other$290,980
Miami$1,151
Houston$349
Chicago$337
Atlanta$234
San Francisco$93

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.2
Events covered
97

Moderate coverage

<=1
65 brackets
<=2
79 brackets
<=3
85 brackets
<=4
88 brackets
<=5
89 brackets
<=8
91 brackets
>8
6 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/19/2026, 6:45:36 PM6 trades$24,95810 min
2/19/2026, 7:58:16 PM1 trades$12,0000 min
2/19/2026, 10:06:38 PM1 trades$2,9760 min
2/19/2026, 10:43:14 PM2 trades$9,9841 min
2/20/2026, 8:31:30 PM17 trades$35,45118 min
2/20/2026, 9:01:04 PM1 trades$10 min
2/20/2026, 9:11:02 PM3 trades$332 min
2/20/2026, 9:31:10 PM7 trades$25610 min
2/20/2026, 9:49:28 PM4 trades$2,8872 min
2/20/2026, 10:12:36 PM28 trades$7,11740 min
2/20/2026, 10:59:00 PM2 trades$1,0744 min
2/21/2026, 12:17:00 AM1 trades$3,0420 min
2/25/2026, 8:47:04 PM2 trades$31,9953 min
2/26/2026, 12:21:28 AM1 trades$19,9680 min
2/26/2026, 12:49:08 PM1 trades$19,9680 min
2/26/2026, 12:59:46 PM2 trades$19,9890 min
2/28/2026, 12:20:09 PM2 trades$10,0000 min
2/28/2026, 12:26:11 PM2 trades$11,1001 min
2/28/2026, 1:01:29 PM4 trades$10,0004 min
2/28/2026, 1:19:07 PM2 trades$4,9994 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
04-21
05-12
05-24
06-30
07-16

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
28.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.2 br/event