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@Crowded-Distance

#74074

0x2974bd0059e48f215c391882976e0f1b4c8c9c23

139d· 188 markets · 2609 tradesVol: $6,663,5402026-06-27T17:15
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

74
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 75%20/20
Profit Factor 1.70x11/15
Sharpe 0.1914/15
Sortino 0.2683/10
EV $+0.51010/10
HHI 46110/10
Profit Days 62%8/10
DD/Peak 27%9/10

Summary

Crowded-Distance is an experienced and active trader on Polymarket, currently ranked #740 on the global profit and loss leaderboard. With 2,609 trades executed across 188 markets and a total volume exceeding $6.6 million, this trader has generated a net profit of $251,788.46 over 306 days of activity. The portfolio value stands at $441,236.72, supported by a solid win rate of 85.4% and a profit factor of 2.38, indicating consistent profitability.

Crowded-Distance favors a diversified trading approach, participating in many markets without a focus on weather-related events. The trader exhibits a moderate risk profile, with a low Sharpe ratio of 0.19 and no recorded drawdown duration, suggesting disciplined risk management and minimal sustained losses. Their strategy blends manual and automated trading elements, reflected in a semi-bot score of 45/100. Notably, Crowded-Distance utilizes dollar-cost averaging and tends to hold a portion of positions rather than selling immediately, as evidenced by a 29% sell rate.

The key strengths of Crowded-Distance include a high win rate, strong profit factor, and consistent activity, which have earned badges like Sniper and DCA Master. However, their downward equity trend points to recent performance challenges that could signal increased risk or changing market conditions. Maintaining vigilance on portfolio drawdowns and adapting strategy as needed will be important for sustaining long-term success on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 75%
Profitable
PnL $+251,788
DCA Master
avg 9.9 entries/market
Win Streak
20 wins in a row
Whale
$2,911,415
Consistent
28/45 days
High Roller
$9,514/day
Cool Head
DD 27%

Categories

5
🏛️ POLITICS#205$239,436Vol: $6,059,943
💰 FINANCE#900$5,639Vol: $257,141
SPORTS#61,415$350Vol: $113,266
🎭 CULTURE#4,128$1,290Vol: $26,240
📈 ECONOMICS#627,801$-40Vol: $2,273

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$251,788
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$6,663,540
Total Redeem
$662,281
Portfolio
$441,237
Predictions
188
total markets
Trades
1855B / 754S
Daily Volume
$9,514
Account Age
139d
since Feb 19, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-4,697
Vol: $0
Week
$1,990
Vol: $3,495
Month
$-490
Vol: $123,863
All Time
$251,788
Vol: $6,663,540

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
81%
65W / 15L events
Realized PnL
$302,208
Win Rate
85%
135W / 23L
Profit Factor
2.38x
Avg Win
$3,646
Avg Loss
$-8,976

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $233,552 (81.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$112,967
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$67,292
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$53,293
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$46,954
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$27,293
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?$22,368
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$22,287
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?$10,842
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$10,146
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$8,926

Top Losers

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$-107,327
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?$-29,277
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$-15,049
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?$-12,035
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?$-10,182
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?$-6,357
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?$-5,689
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?$-4,612
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$-3,614
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?$-3,590

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.191
Sortino
0.268
HHI
461
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.510
Kelly %
63.1%
Half-Kelly
31.6%
Top-1 market
14.1%
Top-5 markets
40.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
20.8
Active
Markets / Day
1.5
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
30s
between trades
Avg Gap
34.7m
between trades
Night Trading
29%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.92
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.1

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 30s — typical for humanSize CV 1.92 — diverse, typical for human29% at night — bot never sleeps23/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.77 — human randomness21 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
9.9
Active DCA
<=1
52 entries
<=2
75 entries
<=5
110 entries
<=10
136 entries
<=20
164 entries
<=50
181 entries
>50
7 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.2%
Mid (20-55c)13.7%
High (>55c)86.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 33.7%

Other$283,570
Miami$1,151
Houston$349
Chicago$337
Atlanta$234
San Francisco$93

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.3
Events covered
81

Moderate coverage

<=1
56 brackets
<=2
64 brackets
<=3
69 brackets
<=4
72 brackets
<=5
74 brackets
<=8
75 brackets
>8
6 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/19/2026, 6:45:36 PM6 trades$24,95810 min
2/19/2026, 7:58:16 PM1 trades$12,0000 min
2/19/2026, 10:06:38 PM1 trades$2,9760 min
2/19/2026, 10:43:14 PM2 trades$9,9841 min
2/20/2026, 8:31:30 PM17 trades$35,45118 min
2/20/2026, 9:01:04 PM1 trades$10 min
2/20/2026, 9:11:02 PM3 trades$332 min
2/20/2026, 9:31:10 PM7 trades$25610 min
2/20/2026, 9:49:28 PM4 trades$2,8872 min
2/20/2026, 10:12:36 PM28 trades$7,11740 min
2/20/2026, 10:59:00 PM2 trades$1,0744 min
2/21/2026, 12:17:00 AM1 trades$3,0420 min
2/25/2026, 8:47:04 PM2 trades$31,9953 min
2/26/2026, 12:21:28 AM1 trades$19,9680 min
2/26/2026, 12:49:08 PM1 trades$19,9680 min
2/26/2026, 12:59:46 PM2 trades$19,9890 min
2/28/2026, 12:20:09 PM2 trades$10,0000 min
2/28/2026, 12:26:11 PM2 trades$11,1001 min
2/28/2026, 1:01:29 PM4 trades$10,0004 min
2/28/2026, 1:19:07 PM2 trades$4,9994 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
04-18
05-09
05-17
05-26
07-01
09-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
28.9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 9.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.3 br/event