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@Crowded-Distance

#56678

0x2974bd0059e48f215c391882976e0f1b4c8c9c23

90d· 142 markets · 2076 tradesVol: $5,694,5602026-05-16T11:02
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

78
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 79%20/20
Profit Factor 2.22x15/15
Sharpe 0.2415/15
Sortino 0.1572/10
EV $+0.54810/10
HHI 59010/10
Profit Days 84%10/10
DD/Peak 35%7/10

Summary

Crowded-Distance is an experienced and consistently profitable trader on Polymarket, currently ranked #566 globally with a net profit of $271,447 across 2,076 trades and 142 markets over 306 active days. Their total trading volume exceeds $5.6 million, reflecting significant market engagement. Despite a sizable portfolio valued at about $445,500, the trader’s equity trend has been declining recently, indicating some recent performance challenges despite an overall strong track record.

This trader demonstrates a strategic approach characterized by a high win rate of 88% and a profit factor of 2.84, suggesting a disciplined risk-reward balance. Crowded-Distance employs a semi-automated style, blending manual and bot-assisted trades (bot score 45/100), and shows a preference for steady accumulation techniques like dollar-cost averaging, as indicated by the “DCA Master” badge. They tend to hold positions rather than frequently selling, with a sell percentage of only 30%, which aligns with a lower risk appetite and a focus on long-term gains rather than short-term speculation.

Crowded-Distance’s key strengths include consistent profitability, a solid win streak, and a sniper-like precision in trade entries. However, their relatively low Sharpe ratio of 0.24 and the recent downward equity trend highlight potential concerns around volatility management and recent market timing effectiveness. The absence of weather market exposure suggests a more conservative market focus, but the combination of semi-bot trading and a declining portfolio value implies the need for ongoing adaptation to maintain performance on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 79%
Profitable
PnL $+271,447
DCA Master
avg 10.2 entries/market
Win Streak
33 wins in a row
Whale
$2,490,540
Consistent
21/25 days
High Roller
$8,139/day

Categories

5
🏛️ POLITICS#176$263,835Vol: $5,169,190
💰 FINANCE#1,005$4,445Vol: $241,731
SPORTS#36,208$885Vol: $90,141
🎭 CULTURE#574,977$-3Vol: $15,681
📈 ECONOMICS#602,764$-40Vol: $2,273

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$271,447
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$5,694,560
Total Redeem
$606,716
Portfolio
$445,539
Predictions
142
total markets
Trades
1450B / 626S
Daily Volume
$8,139
Account Age
90d
since Feb 19, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-11,760
Vol: $30,681
Week
$-16,637
Vol: $128,008
Month
$21,576
Vol: $273,220
All Time
$271,447
Vol: $5,694,560

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
79%
53W / 14L events
Realized PnL
$305,514
Win Rate
88%
110W / 15L
Profit Factor
2.84x
Avg Win
$4,161
Avg Loss
$-10,733

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $233,552 (78.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$112,967
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$67,292
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$53,293
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$46,954
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$27,293
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?$22,368
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$22,287
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$10,146
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$8,926
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?$8,611

Top Losers

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$-107,327
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?$-29,277
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$-15,049
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$-3,614
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March $-1,605
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April $-1,012
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?$-911
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?$-886
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?$-875
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$-165

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.241
Sortino
0.157
HHI
590
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.548
Kelly %
73.4%
Half-Kelly
36.7%
Top-1 market
15.9%
Top-5 markets
46.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
24.3
Active
Markets / Day
1.7
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
32s
between trades
Avg Gap
33.5m
between trades
Night Trading
27%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.85
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.1

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 32s — typical for humanSize CV 1.85 — diverse, typical for human27% at night — bot never sleeps22/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.81 — human randomness24 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
10.2
Heavy DCA
<=1
47 entries
<=2
67 entries
<=5
93 entries
<=10
105 entries
<=20
122 entries
<=50
135 entries
>50
7 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.1%
Mid (20-55c)15.5%
High (>55c)84.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 31.3%

Other$294,571
Miami$1,151
Houston$349
Chicago$337
Atlanta$234
San Francisco$93

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.1
Events covered
67

Moderate coverage

<=1
47 brackets
<=2
54 brackets
<=3
59 brackets
<=4
62 brackets
<=5
63 brackets
<=8
63 brackets
>8
4 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/19/2026, 6:45:36 PM6 trades$24,95810 min
2/19/2026, 7:58:16 PM1 trades$12,0000 min
2/19/2026, 10:06:38 PM1 trades$2,9760 min
2/19/2026, 10:43:14 PM2 trades$9,9841 min
2/20/2026, 8:31:30 PM17 trades$35,45118 min
2/20/2026, 9:01:04 PM1 trades$10 min
2/20/2026, 9:11:02 PM3 trades$332 min
2/20/2026, 9:31:10 PM7 trades$25610 min
2/20/2026, 9:49:28 PM4 trades$2,8872 min
2/20/2026, 10:12:36 PM28 trades$7,11740 min
2/20/2026, 10:59:00 PM2 trades$1,0744 min
2/21/2026, 12:17:00 AM1 trades$3,0420 min
2/25/2026, 8:47:04 PM2 trades$31,9953 min
2/26/2026, 12:21:28 AM1 trades$19,9680 min
2/26/2026, 12:49:08 PM1 trades$19,9680 min
2/26/2026, 12:59:46 PM2 trades$19,9890 min
2/28/2026, 12:20:09 PM2 trades$10,0000 min
2/28/2026, 12:26:11 PM2 trades$11,1001 min
2/28/2026, 1:01:29 PM4 trades$10,0004 min
2/28/2026, 1:19:07 PM2 trades$4,9994 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
04-07
04-21
05-03
05-11
05-16
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
30.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 10.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.1 br/event