Polydata

@Curly-Sunbeam

#272,16866

0xe5a29530097387b16f1f730541e38b0639593c41

100d· 65 markets · 172 tradesVol: $2,8852026-05-27T06:07
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

66
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 58%14/20
Profit Factor 1.70x11/15
Sharpe 0.2054/15
Sortino 0.2633/10
EV $+22.90710/10
HHI 27210/10
Profit Days 65%9/10
DD/Peak 41%6/10

Summary

Curly-Sunbeam is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, participating in 172 trades across 65 different markets over 72 days. With a net profit and loss (PnL) of $57.22 and a total trading volume of $2,885, Curly-Sunbeam currently holds a global PnL rank of #272,168. Their smart score of 66 indicates a generally good performance, supported by a win rate of 57.8% and a profit factor of 1.80, suggesting profitable trading activity.

The trading style of Curly-Sunbeam appears diversified, given their involvement in numerous markets without a specific focus on weather markets. Their risk profile seems moderate, evidenced by a low Sharpe ratio of 0.21 but a positive equity trend and zero days of maximum drawdown duration. Curly-Sunbeam tends to hold trades rather than frequently sell, with a sell percentage of 43%, pointing to a balanced approach between holding and exiting positions. Their manual trading style (bot score 5/100) shows active human decision-making rather than algorithmic automation.

Curly-Sunbeam’s strengths include consistent profitability and maintaining a steady upward equity trend, supported by badges highlighting win streaks and contrarian strategies. However, the low Sharpe ratio suggests limited risk-adjusted returns, and their rank indicates room for improvement in competitive standing. As a human trader, Curly-Sunbeam may benefit from refining timing and market selection to enhance performance on Polymarket.

Badges

5
Profitable
PnL $+57
Lottery Player
37% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
83% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
11 wins in a row
Consistent
26/40 days

Categories

3
CRYPTO#104,663$67Vol: $2,293
🎭 CULTURE#612,561$-4Vol: $311
💰 FINANCE#518,593$-6Vol: $281

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$57
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,885
Total Redeem
$48
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
65
total markets
Trades
98B / 74S
Daily Volume
$5
Account Age
100d
since Feb 16, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$5
Vol: $100
Month
$22
Vol: $1,661
All Time
$57
Vol: $2,885

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
60%
35W / 23L events
Realized PnL
$60
Win Rate
58%
37W / 27L
Profit Factor
1.8x
Avg Win
$4
Avg Loss
$-3

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $45 (74.2% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1?$21
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 27?$14
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?$11
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 29?$11
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 28?$8
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20?$7
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11?$7
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13?$6
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 23?$5
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26?$5

Top Losers

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7?$-16
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14?$-15
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5?$-7
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?$-4
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be$-4
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 46m an$-3
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 16?$-3
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70$-3
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 45 on the Rott$-2
Will "Project Hail Mary" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?$-2

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.205
Sortino
0.263
HHI
272
Diversified
EV per $1
$22.907
Kelly %
4.2%
Half-Kelly
2.1%
Top-1 market
5.7%
Top-5 markets
23.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.9
Active Hours
18/24
Extended
Peak Hour
11:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.2h
between trades
Avg Gap
5.3h
between trades
Night Trading
2%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.09
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.1

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 4324s — typical for humanSize CV 1.09 — diverse, typical for human2% at night — normal sleep pattern18/24 hours — extended daySession CV 1.37 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 11:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.5
Single entry
<=1
47 entries
<=2
56 entries
<=5
64 entries
<=10
65 entries
<=20
65 entries
<=50
65 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)36.7%
Mid (20-55c)52%
High (>55c)11.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 72.2%

Other$61

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
59

Single bracket

<=1
54 brackets
<=2
58 brackets
<=3
59 brackets
<=4
59 brackets
<=5
59 brackets
<=8
59 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/15/2026, 8:25:01 PM1 trades$70 min
3/16/2026, 5:13:21 AM1 trades$100 min
3/16/2026, 9:13:15 AM1 trades$70 min
3/16/2026, 12:45:29 PM1 trades$20 min
3/16/2026, 3:08:37 PM1 trades$10 min
3/17/2026, 7:32:55 AM1 trades$20 min
3/17/2026, 9:13:23 AM1 trades$10 min
3/17/2026, 10:04:57 AM2 trades$44 min
3/19/2026, 8:22:23 AM1 trades$20 min
3/19/2026, 9:02:59 AM1 trades$20 min
3/20/2026, 7:40:01 AM2 trades$50 min
3/20/2026, 8:08:21 AM1 trades$20 min
3/20/2026, 8:27:49 AM1 trades$20 min
3/20/2026, 10:33:41 AM1 trades$10 min
3/20/2026, 11:45:45 AM1 trades$10 min
3/21/2026, 2:30:17 PM2 trades$30 min
3/22/2026, 3:03:21 PM1 trades$10 min
3/23/2026, 7:38:59 PM1 trades$40 min
3/23/2026, 7:44:33 PM1 trades$60 min
3/24/2026, 6:20:45 AM1 trades$20 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-16
03-25
04-08
04-20
04-28
05-06
05-18

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
43% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event