Polydata

@Decent-Armrest

#30273

0xfc25f141ed27bb1787338d2c4e7f51e3a15e1f7f

539d· 16183 markets · 50902 tradesVol: $302,221,6972026-05-23T14:26
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

73
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.11x0/15
Sharpe 0.68613/15
Sortino 28747639.12410/10
HHI 10310/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Decent-Armrest is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #302 on the global PnL leaderboard. With over 50,900 trades across 375 markets and a net profit of approximately $499,000, this trader shows consistent engagement over 653 days. Their portfolio value stands at about $376,000, reflecting a strong equity growth trend supported by a solid Smart Score of 73/100, indicating very good trading performance.

The trading style of Decent-Armrest appears diversified, with no focus on weather markets and a moderate sell percentage of 22%, suggesting a preference for holding positions rather than quick flips. Their win rate is just under 50%, combined with a low profit factor of 0.11 and a Sharpe ratio of 0.69, indicating moderate risk-taking and measured timing. The balance between bot and manual trading, reflected in the Bot Score of 50/100, points to a semi-automated strategy blending algorithmic and discretionary decisions.

Decent-Armrest’s strengths lie in high volume trading, a consistent upward equity trend, and badges that highlight sniper-like precision and profitability. However, the relatively low profit factor and moderate Sharpe ratio suggest potential vulnerability to market volatility. The short max drawdown duration of zero days is positive, but the overall win rate just below 50% indicates that the trader endures frequent losses, which could impact long-term sustainability under adverse conditions.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+499,064
DCA Master
avg 106.8 entries/market
Win Streak
157 wins in a row
Whale
$19,849,455
Consistent
169/169 days
High Roller
$30,397/day

Categories

8
SPORTS#166$506,832Vol: $285,712,441
🏛️ POLITICS#4,985$6,429Vol: $9,959,119
📈 ECONOMICS#586$8,727Vol: $4,722,415
CRYPTO#1,520,779$-4,630Vol: $1,016,852
🎭 CULTURE#5,604$803Vol: $486,949
💻 TECH#3,236$234Vol: $227,266
💰 FINANCE#611,914$-19,369Vol: $91,223
📢 MENTIONS#38,082$1Vol: $2,000

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$499,064
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$302,221,697
Total Redeem
$2,749,118
Portfolio
$376,455
Predictions
16183
total markets
Trades
39845B / 11057S
Daily Volume
$30,397
Account Age
539d
since Nov 30, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$4,999
Vol: $751,977
Week
$1,153
Vol: $7,051,775
Month
$39,607
Vol: $22,107,587
All Time
$499,064
Vol: $302,221,697

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
252W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$4,854,359
Win Rate
49%
174W / 182L
Profit Factor
0.11x
Avg Win
$6,969
Avg Loss
$-59,216

Top Winners

US government shutdown Saturday?$894,639
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner$89,961
Eagles vs. Cowboys$41,196
Will Elche CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw?$39,966
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$25,085
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-23?$22,514
Pacers vs. Thunder$21,912
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5$14,955
Thunder vs. Jazz$12,247
Brewers vs. Dodgers$5,554

Top Losers

Lakers vs. Thunder$-317,589
Jazz vs. Lakers$-224,471
Bucks vs. Cavaliers$-219,559
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?$-199,888
Hawks vs. Mavericks$-189,630
Hawks vs. Rockets$-189,554
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)$-167,276
LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stage$-163,413
Spurs vs. Knicks$-159,270
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5)$-153,231

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.686
Sortino
inf
HHI
103
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.491
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.7%
Top-5 markets
14.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
113.3
Very active
Markets / Day
0.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
32s
between trades
Avg Gap
4.8m
between trades
Night Trading
20%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.96
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.3

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 32s — typical for humanSize CV 6.96 — diverse, typical for human20% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.94 — human randomness113 trades/day — automation

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
106.8
Heavy DCA
<=1
40 entries
<=2
66 entries
<=5
107 entries
<=10
133 entries
<=20
163 entries
<=50
214 entries
>50
159 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)17.2%
Mid (20-55c)28.9%
High (>55c)53.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 66.9%

Los Angeles$15,039
Toronto$181
Atlanta$40
Miami$-5,135
Chicago$-7,835
Paris$-177,374
Other$-9,389,733

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
261

Single bracket

<=1
217 brackets
<=2
232 brackets
<=3
244 brackets
<=4
251 brackets
<=5
256 brackets
<=8
259 brackets
>8
2 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/28/2025, 8:00:34 AM2 trades$100 min
2/28/2025, 8:08:50 AM1 trades$40 min
2/28/2025, 8:14:16 AM9 trades$489 min
2/28/2025, 8:29:50 AM1 trades$60 min
2/28/2025, 8:38:16 AM2 trades$1872 min
2/28/2025, 8:49:38 AM4 trades$195 min
2/28/2025, 9:07:06 AM2 trades$91 min
2/28/2025, 9:14:04 AM3 trades$331 min
2/28/2025, 9:21:10 AM2 trades$101 min
2/28/2025, 9:39:06 AM6 trades$288 min
2/28/2025, 9:53:37 AM8 trades$3812 min
2/28/2025, 10:22:39 AM2 trades$91 min
2/28/2025, 10:29:19 AM1 trades$90 min
2/28/2025, 10:37:59 AM7 trades$3312 min
2/28/2025, 11:02:49 AM4 trades$195 min
2/28/2025, 11:32:07 AM13 trades$6424 min
2/28/2025, 12:01:49 PM2 trades$91 min
2/28/2025, 12:09:07 PM4 trades$195 min
2/28/2025, 12:36:07 PM5 trades$219 min
2/28/2025, 12:50:38 PM2 trades$91 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-18
06-01
10-10
11-23
01-10
03-16
05-23
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
21.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 106.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event