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Decimal-Moose

@Decimal-Moose

#2,785,43819

0x00818684617154d0735fc62d4ffbe431bd19dc8b

333d· 232 markets · 388 tradesVol: $72,111 @mrsurmeli_eth2026-06-27T19:06
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

19
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 44%7/20
Profit Factor 0.70x0/15
HHI 9110/10
Profit Days 37%2/10
DD/Peak 430%0/10

Summary

Decimal-Moose is a relatively low-ranked trader on Polymarket, positioned at #2,785,438 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 515 days of activity, they have completed 388 trades across 232 markets, generating a total volume of $72,111. Despite this level of engagement, Decimal-Moose has a net loss of $967.01 and a Smart Score of 19/100, indicating beginner status in trading effectiveness.

This trader appears to have a contrarian style, as highlighted by their badge, with a moderate win rate of 47.5% and a profit factor of 0.78, suggesting more losses than gains overall. Decimal-Moose does not engage in weather markets and executes manual trades with a 31% sell rate. The Sharpe ratio of -0.20 reflects a negative risk-adjusted return, and there is no indication of automated strategies. Their equity trend has been downward, showing consistent portfolio value decline.

Decimal-Moose’s key strength lies in consistent participation and a willingness to take contrarian positions, which can be valuable in volatile markets. However, their negative profit factor, declining portfolio, and low Smart and Bot Scores highlight significant risks. Without improved risk management or strategy refinement, their ongoing losses may continue on Polymarket.

Badges

2
Contrarian
52% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
8 wins in a row

Categories

6
CRYPTO#1,512,773$-343Vol: $17,245
🏛️ POLITICS#1,301,400$-14Vol: $15,794
SPORTS#1,672,217$-370Vol: $9,704
🎭 CULTURE#115,728$2Vol: $9,136
📢 MENTIONS#22,566$7Vol: $4,957
💰 FINANCE#34,278$27Vol: $634

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-967
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$72,111
Total Redeem
$1,287
Portfolio
$1
Predictions
232
total markets
Trades
267B / 121S
Daily Volume
$13
Account Age
333d
since Aug 2, 2025

Periods

#2
Week
$-40
Vol: $1,363
Month
$-157
Vol: $4,751
All Time
$-967
Vol: $72,111

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
44%
91W / 116L events
Realized PnL
$-588
Win Rate
48%
97W / 107L
Profit Factor
0.78x
Avg Win
$22
Avg Loss
$-26

Top Winners

Will Türkiye win on 2025-11-18?$114
Games Total: O/U 2.5$113
Will Norway win on 2025-11-16?$93
FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5$52
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Vitality (BO3)$50
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs G2 Ares (BO3) - IstabuLAN Pla$49
Rockets vs. Magic$49
Heat vs. Magic: O/U 242.5$46
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3)$45
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3)$45

Top Losers

Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?$-262
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3)$-122
Kocaelispor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 1.5$-101
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10?$-101
Zama auction clearing price above $0.05?$-75
Will Aurora Gaming win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?$-74
Knicks vs. Hawks$-72
Heat vs. Pelicans$-70
Rockets vs. Heat$-69
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner$-64

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.197
Sortino
-0.208
HHI
91
Diversified
EV per $1
$-2.541
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
3.9%
Top-5 markets
12.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.7
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
50.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
3.1h
between trades
Night Trading
4%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.07
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 3017s — typical for humanSize CV 1.07 — diverse, typical for human4% at night — normal sleep pattern21/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.91 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.2
Single entry
<=1
208 entries
<=2
229 entries
<=5
231 entries
<=10
232 entries
<=20
232 entries
<=50
232 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)16.5%
Mid (20-55c)52.1%
High (>55c)31.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 69.7%

Atlanta$-5
Other$-605

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
207

Single bracket

<=1
185 brackets
<=2
204 brackets
<=3
207 brackets
<=4
207 brackets
<=5
207 brackets
<=8
207 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
8/2/2025, 6:27:30 PM1 trades$150 min
11/3/2025, 3:05:03 PM1 trades$110 min
11/3/2025, 4:08:01 PM2 trades$154 min
11/3/2025, 4:37:13 PM3 trades$414 min
11/3/2025, 4:49:05 PM7 trades$817 min
11/3/2025, 8:02:57 PM1 trades$200 min
11/3/2025, 8:10:13 PM1 trades$10 min
11/3/2025, 8:17:41 PM1 trades$550 min
11/4/2025, 12:47:33 PM1 trades$1000 min
11/4/2025, 1:16:03 PM2 trades$84 min
11/4/2025, 1:36:57 PM1 trades$440 min
11/4/2025, 10:17:15 PM1 trades$550 min
11/5/2025, 11:33:01 AM1 trades$980 min
11/5/2025, 11:42:19 AM1 trades$230 min
11/5/2025, 12:30:37 PM1 trades$600 min
11/5/2025, 1:47:39 PM1 trades$610 min
11/11/2025, 11:57:53 PM1 trades$100 min
11/12/2025, 9:19:53 AM2 trades$141 min
11/12/2025, 9:31:37 AM1 trades$590 min
11/12/2025, 5:31:33 PM1 trades$600 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
08-04
11-26
02-07
04-06
05-21
06-05

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
31.2% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event