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Decimal-Moose

@Decimal-Moose

#2,590,85917

0x00818684617154d0735fc62d4ffbe431bd19dc8b

291d· 138 markets · 235 tradesVol: $53,409 @mrsurmeli_eth2026-05-18T09:12
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

17
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 42%6/20
Profit Factor 0.65x0/15
HHI 14210/10
Profit Days 33%1/10
DD/Peak 401%0/10

Summary

Decimal-Moose is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 235 trades across 138 markets over 515 days. Despite this activity, their overall net PnL stands at -$884.31, placing them at rank #2,590,859 on the global leaderboard. The trader’s portfolio value has declined to $29.80, and their Smart Score is low at 17/100, indicating a beginner level.

Decimal-Moose appears to engage in a wide variety of markets but does not focus on weather markets. Their win rate is 47.1%, with a profit factor below 1 (0.79), suggesting more losses than gains. The trader sells 30% of positions, which may indicate a cautious approach to exiting trades. The Sharpe ratio is negative (-0.23), reflecting poor risk-adjusted returns. The Contrarian badge hints at a tendency to go against prevailing trends, while their activity includes some win streaks.

The key strength for Decimal-Moose is persistence and diversity in market exposure, but the data shows a declining equity trend and consistent losses. The low bot score confirms manual trading, which may limit scalability. Risks include a negative profit factor and Sharpe ratio, signaling poor risk management and potential for further drawdowns. Overall, Decimal-Moose’s Polymarket performance highlights challenges in strategy execution and profitability.

Badges

2
Contrarian
52% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
6 wins in a row

Categories

5
CRYPTO#1,420,941$-335Vol: $16,873
SPORTS#1,573,459$-458Vol: $16,249
🎭 CULTURE#112,237$2Vol: $9,136
🏛️ POLITICS#1,282,612$-17Vol: $8,042
📢 MENTIONS#91,151$-2Vol: $2,478

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-884
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$53,409
Total Redeem
$684
Portfolio
$30
Predictions
138
total markets
Trades
164B / 71S
Daily Volume
$10
Account Age
291d
since Aug 2, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$4
Vol: $2,517
Week
$4
Vol: $2,588
Month
$-111
Vol: $19,671
All Time
$-884
Vol: $53,409

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
44%
53W / 68L events
Realized PnL
$-414
Win Rate
47%
56W / 63L
Profit Factor
0.79x
Avg Win
$28
Avg Loss
$-32

Top Winners

Will Türkiye win on 2025-11-18?$114
Games Total: O/U 2.5$113
Will Norway win on 2025-11-16?$93
FC Porto vs. FC Arouca: O/U 2.5$52
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Vitality (BO3)$50
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs G2 Ares (BO3) - IstabuLAN Pla$49
Rockets vs. Magic$49
Heat vs. Magic: O/U 242.5$46
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3)$45
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3)$45

Top Losers

Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?$-262
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3)$-122
Zama auction clearing price above $0.05?$-75
Will Aurora Gaming win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?$-74
Knicks vs. Hawks$-72
Heat vs. Pelicans$-70
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner$-64
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)$-61
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner$-60
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? $-58

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.227
Sortino
-0.246
HHI
142
Diversified
EV per $1
$-1.771
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.1%
Top-5 markets
16.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.8
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
48.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
3.1h
between trades
Night Trading
5%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.03
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 2878s — typical for humanSize CV 1.03 — diverse, typical for human5% at night — normal sleep pattern19/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.91 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.2
Single entry
<=1
121 entries
<=2
136 entries
<=5
137 entries
<=10
138 entries
<=20
138 entries
<=50
138 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)20.7%
Mid (20-55c)50%
High (>55c)29.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 65.6%

Atlanta$0
Other$-412

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
121

Single bracket

<=1
106 brackets
<=2
119 brackets
<=3
121 brackets
<=4
121 brackets
<=5
121 brackets
<=8
121 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
8/2/2025, 6:27:30 PM1 trades$150 min
11/3/2025, 3:05:03 PM1 trades$110 min
11/3/2025, 4:08:01 PM2 trades$154 min
11/3/2025, 4:37:13 PM3 trades$414 min
11/3/2025, 4:49:05 PM7 trades$817 min
11/3/2025, 8:02:57 PM1 trades$200 min
11/3/2025, 8:10:13 PM1 trades$10 min
11/3/2025, 8:17:41 PM1 trades$550 min
11/4/2025, 12:47:33 PM1 trades$1000 min
11/4/2025, 1:16:03 PM2 trades$84 min
11/4/2025, 1:36:57 PM1 trades$440 min
11/4/2025, 10:17:15 PM1 trades$550 min
11/5/2025, 11:33:01 AM1 trades$980 min
11/5/2025, 11:42:19 AM1 trades$230 min
11/5/2025, 12:30:37 PM1 trades$600 min
11/5/2025, 1:47:39 PM1 trades$610 min
11/11/2025, 11:57:53 PM1 trades$100 min
11/12/2025, 9:19:53 AM2 trades$141 min
11/12/2025, 9:31:37 AM1 trades$590 min
11/12/2025, 5:31:33 PM1 trades$600 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
08-04
11-16
12-05
01-19
02-25
04-07
05-17

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
30.2% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event