Polydata
Defiant-Society

@Defiant-Society

#18,32149

0xefbde971ee0122381e91a3c21a5337d0ae9065fa

668d· 285 markets · 762 tradesVol: $188,703 @_kate_lv2026-07-27T08:16
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

49
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 43%7/20
Profit Factor 1.35x7/15
Sharpe 0.1112/15
Sortino 0.1782/10
EV $+0.64010/10
HHI 17110/10
Profit Days 44%4/10
DD/Peak 31%8/10

Summary

Defiant-Society is a moderately active Polymarket trader with 762 trades across 285 markets over 667 days. Ranked #18321 globally by net PnL, they have generated $7,490.04 in profit from a total trading volume of $188,703. Their smart score of 49/100 suggests average overall trading effectiveness, while their portfolio value currently sits at zero, indicating no open positions.

The trader’s strategy favors a high win rate of 78.1%, combined with a profit factor of 3.06, pointing to consistent profitability with relatively low risk on individual trades. Defiant-Society appears to trade manually, as indicated by a low bot score, and maintains a conservative approach with only 9% of trades involving selling. Their equity trend is stable and Sharpe ratio low at 0.11, suggesting limited volatility exposure and a preference for steady gains rather than large directional bets.

Defiant-Society’s strengths lie in their disciplined, steady trading style with a strong win streak and low drawdowns, supported by badges like Diamond Hands and Whale. However, the flat equity trend and modest Sharpe ratio may raise concerns about growth potential and risk-adjusted returns. Overall, Defiant-Society demonstrates consistent manual trading success on Polymarket but might benefit from exploring more dynamic strategies to enhance performance.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Profitable
PnL $+7,490
Diamond Hands
9% sell
Win Streak
26 wins in a row
Whale
$68,516

Categories

7
⚽ SPORTS#6,915$7,175Vol: $127,378
📈 ECONOMICS#584,760$-8Vol: $24,537
🏛️ POLITICS#167,056$11Vol: $11,048
₿ CRYPTO#1,445,148$-89Vol: $8,492
📢 MENTIONS#21,312$8Vol: $4,600
🎭 CULTURE#763,472$-58Vol: $1,210
💰 FINANCE#600,269$-26Vol: $289

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$7,490
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$188,703
Total Redeem
$73,699
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
285
total markets
Trades
694B / 68S
Daily Volume
$103
Account Age
668d
since Sep 26, 2024

Periods

#2
Month
$171
Vol: $2,299
All Time
$7,490
Vol: $188,703

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
45%
109W / 133L events
Realized PnL
$19,201
Win Rate
78%
118W / 32L
Profit Factor
3.06x
Avg Win
$259
Avg Loss
$-312

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $6,101 (29.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

Senators vs. Avalanche$3,187
Hawks vs. Lakers$1,475
Clippers vs. Hawks$1,439
Panthers vs. Avalanche$1,058
76ers vs. Bucks$1,049
Knicks vs. Celtics$1,040
Lightning vs. Canadiens$1,000
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5$1,000
76ers vs. Grizzlies$1,000
Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5$985

Top Losers

Avalanche vs. Senators: O/U 6.5$-1,765
Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche$-1,380
Blackhawks vs. Stars$-1,300
Penguins vs. Red Wings$-1,100
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 233.5$-1,050
Stars vs. Devils$-1,040
Clippers vs. Heat$-1,001
Spurs vs. Grizzlies$-1,001
Will Lyon beat Olympiacos?$-145
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 7AM ET$-116

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.111
Sortino
0.178
HHI
171
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.640
Kelly %
47.3%
Half-Kelly
23.7%
Top-1 market
5.8%
Top-5 markets
18.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.1
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.0h
between trades
Night Trading
5%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.40
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.3

Bot Detection

#6
5
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 140s — typical for humanSize CV 2.40 — diverse, typical for human5% at night — normal sleep pattern21/24 hours — extended daySession CV 1.07 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.4
Moderate DCA
<=1
196 entries
<=2
231 entries
<=5
261 entries
<=10
275 entries
<=20
280 entries
<=50
285 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)21.3%
Mid (20-55c)42.9%
High (>55c)35.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 56.3%

Other$19,764
Tel Aviv$479
Madrid$334
Munich$14
Miami$0
Houston$0
Toronto$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
243

Single bracket

<=1
225 brackets
<=2
235 brackets
<=3
239 brackets
<=4
242 brackets
<=5
242 brackets
<=8
243 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
9/26/2024, 2:21:16 PM1 trades$1450 min
9/30/2024, 7:52:31 PM2 trades$71 min
10/1/2024, 2:48:34 PM1 trades$1490 min
10/2/2024, 4:59:08 PM1 trades$1000 min
10/3/2024, 4:55:52 PM1 trades$2260 min
10/4/2024, 6:42:56 PM8 trades$85 min
10/5/2024, 1:59:54 PM3 trades$41 min
10/5/2024, 3:47:14 PM1 trades$10 min
10/5/2024, 4:01:38 PM1 trades$1560 min
10/23/2024, 3:12:53 PM1 trades$1160 min
12/4/2024, 4:45:34 PM1 trades$490 min
4/16/2025, 6:53:19 PM3 trades$360 min
4/29/2025, 6:51:45 PM1 trades$190 min
5/23/2025, 4:59:53 PM2 trades$1000 min
5/24/2025, 7:19:01 PM1 trades$520 min
5/24/2025, 9:51:38 PM1 trades$500 min
5/25/2025, 6:48:03 PM1 trades$1020 min
5/26/2025, 8:52:59 PM1 trades$670 min
5/27/2025, 9:07:17 PM2 trades$1001 min
5/28/2025, 10:46:57 AM2 trades$1002 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
06-18
12-15
01-10
03-03
04-09
06-21

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
8.9% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event