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Devoted-Effort

@Devoted-Effort

#2,573,51111

0xa61ec8072c28fba041a70462ceeb2e08ec486906

186d· 87 markets · 559 tradesVol: $297,177 @iammrranjan2026-05-18T08:30
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

11
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 34%2/20
Profit Factor 0.51x0/15
HHI 6379/10
Profit Days 18%0/10
DD/Peak 7475%0/10

Summary

Devoted-Effort is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 559 trades across 87 markets over 174 days. Despite significant volume traded ($297,177), the trader currently holds a net loss of $718.84 and ranks #2,573,511 globally, indicating a beginner level with a Smart Score of 11/100. The portfolio value stands at $213.50, and the Sharpe ratio is negative, reflecting underperformance relative to risk taken.

The trader shows a preference for weather-related markets, which make up 17% of their activity, and exhibits a contrarian style with a 21% sell rate. Devoted-Effort's win rate is low at 30.6%, and the profit factor of 0.36 suggests losses outweigh gains. The trading approach appears manual, with a Bot Score of 15/100, indicating decisions are human-driven rather than automated. The equity trend is upward, implying some improvement over time despite the current negative PnL.

Strengths for Devoted-Effort include a growing equity trend and diversified exposure across multiple markets. However, the low win rate, negative Sharpe ratio, and overall loss highlight significant risks. The trader’s contrarian and lottery-playing badges suggest a high-risk, speculative style, which may limit consistent profitability on Polymarket.

Badges

2
Lottery Player
83% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
94% entries <$0.50

Categories

9
🎭 CULTURE#725,553$-49Vol: $100,639
📈 ECONOMICS#615,342$-79Vol: $84,361
🌤️ WEATHER#248,326$-76Vol: $30,230
🏛️ POLITICS#1,393,120$-55Vol: $26,455
₿ CRYPTO#1,367,542$-146Vol: $14,098
📢 MENTIONS#121,730$-11Vol: $10,710
💻 TECH#204,596$-10Vol: $10,000
💰 FINANCE#477,833$-2Vol: $2,490
⚽ SPORTS#1,548,637$-264Vol: $1,194

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-719
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$297,177
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$214
Predictions
87
total markets
Trades
441B / 118S
Daily Volume
$21
Account Age
186d
since Nov 15, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$95
Vol: $0
Week
$95
Vol: $0
Month
$270
Vol: $78,238
All Time
$-719
Vol: $297,177

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
34%
25W / 49L events
Realized PnL
$-905
Win Rate
31%
26W / 57L
Profit Factor
0.36x
Avg Win
$20
Avg Loss
$-25

Top Winners

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$230
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$76
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$49
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$29
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$22
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$16
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$15
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?$14
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$8
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$8

Top Losers

Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between$-288
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings$-241
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 16?$-168
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$-159
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater$-59
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeti$-44
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 13?$-32
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less th$-28
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$-25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?$-24

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.219
Sortino
-0.237
HHI
637
Moderate
EV per $1
$-56.305
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
16.8%
Top-5 markets
47.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
3.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
9:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
54.4m
between trades
Night Trading
14%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.56
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.1

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 203s — typical for humanSize CV 2.56 — diverse, typical for human14% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.88 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 9:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
5.1
Active DCA
<=1
43 entries
<=2
62 entries
<=5
72 entries
<=10
79 entries
<=20
83 entries
<=50
86 entries
>50
1 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)82.5%
Mid (20-55c)13.8%
High (>55c)3.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 86.7%

Taipei$-0
Shanghai$-0
Chicago$-1
Shenzhen$-2
Lucknow$-5
Hong Kong$-10
Moscow$-12
Istanbul$-14
Seoul$-32
Other$-834

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
74

Single bracket

<=1
66 brackets
<=2
72 brackets
<=3
72 brackets
<=4
73 brackets
<=5
74 brackets
<=8
74 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/23/2025, 3:47:53 PM1 trades$150 min
11/23/2025, 3:53:55 PM1 trades$40 min
11/23/2025, 4:02:43 PM1 trades$10 min
11/23/2025, 4:16:01 PM2 trades$30 min
12/6/2025, 1:48:11 PM1 trades$100 min
12/10/2025, 5:21:56 PM2 trades$294 min
12/10/2025, 6:54:50 PM2 trades$150 min
12/14/2025, 2:59:09 PM2 trades$04 min
12/14/2025, 4:16:33 PM1 trades$490 min
12/15/2025, 5:51:21 PM2 trades$1995 min
12/15/2025, 9:16:53 PM5 trades$800 min
12/17/2025, 7:49:06 AM1 trades$750 min
12/17/2025, 11:22:42 AM1 trades$20 min
12/17/2025, 11:36:38 AM1 trades$100 min
12/17/2025, 1:03:00 PM1 trades$380 min
12/17/2025, 1:46:48 PM1 trades$780 min
12/17/2025, 9:12:49 PM1 trades$150 min
12/17/2025, 9:42:51 PM3 trades$434 min
12/18/2025, 1:08:06 AM1 trades$150 min
12/18/2025, 9:00:28 AM1 trades$390 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
01-31
02-25
04-05
04-24
05-10
05-19

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
17.2% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
21.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 5.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event