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Devoted-Effort

@Devoted-Effort

#113,12228

0xa61ec8072c28fba041a70462ceeb2e08ec486906

229d· 162 markets · 952 tradesVol: $355,620 @iammrranjan2026-06-17T02:23
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

28
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 37%3/20
Profit Factor 1.14x4/15
Sharpe 0.0230/15
Sortino 0.0531/10
EV $+2.40510/10
HHI 35110/10
Profit Days 25%0/10
DD/Peak 77%0/10

Summary

Devoted-Effort is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 952 trades executed across 162 markets over 205 days. They currently hold a global rank of #113122 and have accumulated a net profit and loss (PnL) of $447.73. Despite a substantial total volume of $355,620 traded, their portfolio value remains relatively low at $14.39, reflecting modest overall gains. The trader’s Smart Score is 28 out of 100, indicating below-average performance relative to the platform’s user base.

The trading style of Devoted-Effort appears diverse, given participation in a broad range of markets including a 10% focus on weather-related questions. They maintain a relatively low win rate of 37.9% but achieve a profit factor of 1.23, suggesting selective profitable trades offset by frequent losses. With a sell percentage of 23%, Devoted-Effort tends to hold positions rather than exit quickly, and the near-zero Sharpe ratio (0.02) points to low risk-adjusted returns. The zero-day max drawdown duration and upward equity trend indicate resilience and gradual portfolio growth, consistent with a contrarian and lottery-style approach.

Strengths for Devoted-Effort include an ability to generate profits despite a challenging hit rate, supported by disciplined position sizing and market diversity. However, the below-average Smart Score and minimal Sharpe ratio highlight potential concerns regarding consistency and risk management. The trader’s profile suggests they are better suited for long-term engagement rather than rapid gains, and their performance may fluctuate due to a contrarian bias and exposure to speculative markets on Polymarket.

Badges

3
Profitable
PnL $+448
Lottery Player
69% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
92% entries <$0.50

Categories

9
🎭 CULTURE#4,305$1,207Vol: $149,819
📈 ECONOMICS#634,820$-79Vol: $84,361
🌤️ WEATHER#265,652$-76Vol: $30,240
🏛️ POLITICS#1,450,717$-66Vol: $29,634
CRYPTO#1,465,175$-232Vol: $17,688
📢 MENTIONS#128,019$-13Vol: $11,948
💻 TECH#211,129$-10Vol: $10,000
💰 FINANCE#494,851$-2Vol: $2,490
SPORTS#1,603,264$-253Vol: $2,440

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$448
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$355,620
Total Redeem
$675
Portfolio
$14
Predictions
162
total markets
Trades
731B / 221S
Daily Volume
$49
Account Age
229d
since Nov 15, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-9
Vol: $0
Week
$169
Vol: $3,334
Month
$21
Vol: $8,108
All Time
$448
Vol: $355,620

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
40%
50W / 76L events
Realized PnL
$617
Win Rate
38%
58W / 91L
Profit Factor
1.23x
Avg Win
$64
Avg Loss
$-33

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $2,579 (374.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$2,201
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$230
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$148
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$137
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?$133
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$129
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?$87
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$76
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$72
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?$62

Top Losers

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?$-927
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between$-288
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings$-241
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$-174
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 16?$-168
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$-159
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?$-75
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30?$-60
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$-60
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater$-59

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.022
Sortino
0.053
HHI
351
Diversified
EV per $1
$2.405
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
9.5%
Top-5 markets
33%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
4.6
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
9:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.0h
between trades
Night Trading
17%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.41
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.1

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 185s — typical for humanSize CV 2.41 — diverse, typical for human17% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.96 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 9:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.5
Moderate DCA
<=1
83 entries
<=2
116 entries
<=5
133 entries
<=10
145 entries
<=20
156 entries
<=50
161 entries
>50
1 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)68.8%
Mid (20-55c)24.9%
High (>55c)6.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 86.9%

Other$764
Taipei$-0
Shanghai$-0
Chicago$-1
Shenzhen$-2
Lucknow$-5
Hong Kong$-10
Moscow$-12
Istanbul$-14
Seoul$-32

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
126

Single bracket

<=1
107 brackets
<=2
119 brackets
<=3
121 brackets
<=4
124 brackets
<=5
125 brackets
<=8
126 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/23/2025, 3:47:53 PM1 trades$150 min
11/23/2025, 3:53:55 PM1 trades$40 min
11/23/2025, 4:02:43 PM1 trades$10 min
11/23/2025, 4:16:01 PM2 trades$30 min
12/6/2025, 1:48:11 PM1 trades$100 min
12/10/2025, 5:21:56 PM2 trades$294 min
12/10/2025, 6:54:50 PM2 trades$150 min
12/14/2025, 2:59:09 PM2 trades$04 min
12/14/2025, 4:16:33 PM1 trades$490 min
12/15/2025, 5:51:21 PM2 trades$1995 min
12/15/2025, 9:16:53 PM5 trades$800 min
12/17/2025, 7:49:06 AM1 trades$750 min
12/17/2025, 11:22:42 AM1 trades$20 min
12/17/2025, 11:36:38 AM1 trades$100 min
12/17/2025, 1:03:00 PM1 trades$380 min
12/17/2025, 1:46:48 PM1 trades$780 min
12/17/2025, 9:12:49 PM1 trades$150 min
12/17/2025, 9:42:51 PM3 trades$434 min
12/18/2025, 1:08:06 AM1 trades$150 min
12/18/2025, 9:00:28 AM1 trades$390 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
02-17
04-07
05-02
05-21
05-31
06-16

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
9.9% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
23.2% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event