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@Direct-Golf

#67,679100

0x6e41f5497f0cbe0e3aef1d84a0f1be87d5795e0c

49d· 1530 markets · 2407 tradesVol: $103,1692026-05-14T15:03
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

100
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 98%20/20
Profit Factor 4.15x15/15
Sharpe 1.22815/15
Sortino 105662.34910/10
EV $+0.32710/10
HHI 3910/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Direct-Golf is an active Polymarket trader ranked #67,679 globally by net profit, with a net PnL of $1,106.07 accrued over 45 days. They have executed 2,407 trades across 754 markets, generating a total volume exceeding $103,000. Despite a moderate portfolio value of $150.26, Direct-Golf maintains a strong performance profile with an elite Smart Score of 100/100 and a Sharpe ratio of 1.23, reflecting consistent risk-adjusted returns.

The trader specializes exclusively in weather-related markets, demonstrating a focused strategy and deep domain expertise. Their risk profile appears moderate, supported by a profit factor of 4.15 and an 85.2% win rate. Direct-Golf’s trading style combines manual and bot-assisted approaches, as indicated by a Bot Score of 50/100, and a relatively low sell percentage of 31%, suggesting a preference for holding positions to maximize gains. Their activity shows an equity trend that is steadily upward without any significant drawdown durations.

Direct-Golf’s strengths lie in their high accuracy, strong profitability, and contrarian approach that likely capitalizes on less popular market moves. However, heavy concentration in weather markets may expose them to sector-specific volatility and limit diversification benefits. While the combination of bot and manual trading offers flexibility, it could also introduce inconsistencies in execution. Overall, Direct-Golf’s disciplined and data-driven approach makes them a noteworthy participant within Polymarket’s weather segment.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 98%
Profitable
PnL $+1,106
Contrarian
54% entries <$0.50
Weather Pro
100% weather
Win Streak
25 wins in a row
Consistent
44/44 days

Categories

1
🌤️ WEATHER#1,135$1,106Vol: $103,169

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,106
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$103,169
Total Redeem
$1,208
Portfolio
$150
Predictions
1530
total markets
Trades
1655B / 752S
Daily Volume
$269
Account Age
49d
since Mar 29, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$18
Vol: $635
Week
$254
Vol: $8,195
Month
$596
Vol: $25,309
All Time
$1,106
Vol: $103,169

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
232W / 3L events
Realized PnL
$4,599
Win Rate
85%
410W / 71L
Profit Factor
4.15x
Avg Win
$11
Avg Loss
$-15

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $341 (10.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 23?$129
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 26?$110
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 17?$102
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on Apr$93
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 10?$68
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F $68
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on Apri$66
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April$60
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 28?$60
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 29°C on April 13?$59

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 13?$-132
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 26?$-118
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 15?$-66
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 8?$-51
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on Apr$-49
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 23?$-47
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on Apr$-47
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on Apr$-44
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on May 12?$-35
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on April 13?$-34

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
1.228
Sortino
inf
HHI
39
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.327
Kelly %
73.0%
Half-Kelly
36.5%
Top-1 market
1.6%
Top-5 markets
7.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
59.6
Very active
Markets / Day
18.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
12:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
24.7m
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.74
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 312s — typical for humanSize CV 1.74 — diverse, typical for human14% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.92 — human randomness60 trades/day — mass trading19 markets/day — mass coverage

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 12:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.2
Moderate DCA
<=1
392 entries
<=2
558 entries
<=5
701 entries
<=10
743 entries
<=20
750 entries
<=50
750 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)25.9%
Mid (20-55c)41.5%
High (>55c)32.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 39.3%

Ankara$362
Istanbul$339
New York City$197
Amsterdam$167
Beijing$141
Miami$129
Jeddah$118
Denver$114
Wellington$110
San Francisco$109
Tel Aviv$108
Chicago$106
Warsaw$102
Cape Town$98
Paris$86
Toronto$78
Helsinki$77
Lagos$72

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
542

Single bracket

<=1
383 brackets
<=2
498 brackets
<=3
534 brackets
<=4
541 brackets
<=5
542 brackets
<=8
542 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/4/2026, 6:05:23 AM1 trades$120 min
4/4/2026, 9:07:01 AM1 trades$380 min
4/5/2026, 6:02:01 AM1 trades$130 min
4/5/2026, 8:07:59 AM1 trades$430 min
4/5/2026, 10:23:05 AM1 trades$170 min
4/5/2026, 11:53:21 AM2 trades$822 min
4/5/2026, 12:33:13 PM1 trades$1110 min
4/5/2026, 1:02:25 PM1 trades$370 min
4/5/2026, 2:46:59 PM1 trades$470 min
4/5/2026, 9:57:09 PM2 trades$1040 min
4/5/2026, 10:02:35 PM1 trades$940 min
4/5/2026, 10:11:35 PM1 trades$340 min
4/6/2026, 8:51:41 AM1 trades$290 min
4/6/2026, 11:03:45 AM1 trades$460 min
4/6/2026, 4:53:45 PM1 trades$1860 min
4/6/2026, 5:12:17 PM1 trades$2090 min
4/6/2026, 6:19:45 PM1 trades$1290 min
4/6/2026, 11:25:29 PM1 trades$1420 min
4/7/2026, 3:21:07 AM1 trades$60 min
4/7/2026, 3:37:31 AM1 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-30
04-07
04-14
04-21
04-29
05-06
05-13

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
100% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
31.2% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event