Polydata

@Direct-Golf

#77,961100

0x6e41f5497f0cbe0e3aef1d84a0f1be87d5795e0c

102d· 3654 markets · 3423 tradesVol: $308,8722026-07-09T18:39
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

100
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 95%20/20
Profit Factor 9.77x15/15
Sharpe 1.03415/15
Sortino 130853.88310/10
EV $+0.94010/10
HHI 4210/10
Profit Days 99%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Direct-Golf is an active trader on Polymarket, ranked #77,961 globally on the PnL leaderboard. Over 100 days, they executed 3,423 trades across 792 markets, generating a net profit of $1,035.70 on a total volume of $308,872. Their portfolio value remains stable at $34.78, reflecting consistent performance with a Sharpe ratio of 1.03 and no significant drawdowns. The trader’s Smart Score is a perfect 100/100, indicating elite skill, while their Bot Score of 35/100 suggests a likely human trader using a fast interface.

Direct-Golf’s trading strategy focuses exclusively on weather markets, demonstrating a specialized and high-conviction approach. With an 86.4% win rate and a profit factor of 9.77, their style is low-risk and high-precision, supported by a relatively low sell percentage of 26%. The trader appears to favor timely entries and holds positions without prolonged drawdowns, aligning with their Sniper and Weather Pro badges. The equity trend is flat but stable, implying a consistent, methodical trading cadence rather than aggressive speculation.

The strengths of Direct-Golf lie in their specialization and disciplined execution, allowing them to maintain profitability with minimal risk exposure. Their high win rate and elite Smart Score underline strong market insight and trade selection ability. However, reliance on weather markets may expose them to sector-specific risks or volatility shifts. Additionally, the relatively low portfolio value compared to volume suggests cautious capital deployment, which could limit upside potential. Overall, Direct-Golf’s data portrays a proficient and steady Polymarket trader with a focused niche strategy.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 95%
Profitable
PnL $+1,036
Lottery Player
41% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
73% entries <$0.50
Weather Pro
100% weather
Win Streak
39 wins in a row
Consistent
85/86 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

1
🌤️ WEATHER#1,490$1,036Vol: $308,872

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,036
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$308,872
Total Redeem
$1,026
Portfolio
$35
Predictions
3654
total markets
Trades
2543B / 880S
Daily Volume
$118
Account Age
102d
since Mar 29, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-7
Vol: $1,949
Week
$95
Vol: $9,325
Month
$240
Vol: $19,769
All Time
$1,036
Vol: $308,872

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
96%
242W / 10L events
Realized PnL
$11,292
Win Rate
86%
361W / 57L
Profit Factor
9.77x
Avg Win
$26
Avg Loss
$-17

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $758 (9.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 21?$269
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 29?$252
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 4?$237
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 28?$237
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25?$229
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 26?$215
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May $147
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 2?$129
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 23?$129
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 29?$122

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 26?$-123
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F $-75
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 2?$-71
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 4?$-61
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on May 30?$-48
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on Apr$-47
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 31?$-46
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 31?$-44
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on Apri$-35
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on May 12?$-35

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
1.034
Sortino
inf
HHI
42
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.940
Kelly %
80.5%
Half-Kelly
40.3%
Top-1 market
2.3%
Top-5 markets
8.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
40.1
Active
Markets / Day
9.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
32.0m
between trades
Night Trading
18%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.92
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.8

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 339s — typical for humanSize CV 1.92 — diverse, typical for human18% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.96 — human randomness40 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.2
Moderate DCA
<=1
273 entries
<=2
429 entries
<=5
675 entries
<=10
769 entries
<=20
788 entries
<=50
792 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)41%
Mid (20-55c)43.6%
High (>55c)15.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 48.1%

Paris$1,012
Amsterdam$596
London$529
Chengdu$521
Istanbul$453
Chongqing$395
Singapore$384
Los Angeles$382
Wellington$366
Ankara$318
Toronto$298
Madrid$288
Wuhan$269
Munich$246
Shanghai$217
Helsinki$199
Austin$186
Chicago$150

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
589

Single bracket

<=1
429 brackets
<=2
555 brackets
<=3
581 brackets
<=4
589 brackets
<=5
589 brackets
<=8
589 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/15/2026, 10:02:14 AM4 trades$887 min
4/15/2026, 2:20:42 PM1 trades$160 min
4/15/2026, 5:27:10 PM1 trades$430 min
4/15/2026, 6:06:42 PM3 trades$490 min
4/15/2026, 6:17:26 PM1 trades$710 min
4/16/2026, 10:33:58 AM2 trades$361 min
4/16/2026, 3:10:20 PM1 trades$110 min
4/17/2026, 2:00:28 AM5 trades$1180 min
4/17/2026, 7:21:10 AM1 trades$160 min
4/17/2026, 9:42:56 AM6 trades$1114 min
4/17/2026, 9:54:00 AM1 trades$1100 min
4/17/2026, 12:54:08 PM2 trades$120 min
4/17/2026, 8:20:26 PM2 trades$740 min
4/18/2026, 12:26:06 PM1 trades$30 min
4/18/2026, 7:05:20 PM1 trades$330 min
4/19/2026, 10:21:30 AM1 trades$40 min
4/19/2026, 1:51:14 PM1 trades$500 min
4/19/2026, 9:27:06 PM1 trades$860 min
4/19/2026, 10:00:10 PM1 trades$190 min
4/19/2026, 11:30:08 PM2 trades$381 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-01
04-18
05-09
05-24
06-07
06-23
07-09

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
100% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
25.7% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event