Polydata
Dismal-Drizzle

@Dismal-Drizzle

#24697

0x0d18e30e252008d83f51dae00d36873ddd9e24a6

2099d· 9242 markets · 3207 tradesVol: $13,083,6122026-07-14T22:49
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

97
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 97%20/20
Profit Factor 42.70x15/15
Sharpe 0.66012/15
Sortino 1.50710/10
EV $+29.69510/10
HHI 47910/10
Profit Days 98%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Dismal-Drizzle is a highly experienced and elite-ranked trader on Polymarket, holding the global PnL rank of #246. Over 2,070 days, they have completed 3,207 trades across 149 markets, generating a net profit of $772,055.56 on a total volume exceeding $13 million. Their portfolio value remains stable at around $48,500, reflecting a consistent and disciplined approach to trading.

The trader’s strategy emphasizes a high win rate of 86.5% and a strong profit factor of 3.36, indicating a focus on efficient, low-risk trades. Dismal-Drizzle avoids weather markets entirely and rarely sells, with only 1% sell transactions recorded, suggesting a preference for holding positions rather than frequent flipping. Their trading style appears patient and methodical, supported by badges such as Sniper and DCA Master, which point to precise entry timing and dollar-cost averaging techniques. The Sharpe ratio of 0.66 shows moderate risk-adjusted returns, with no significant drawdown periods.

Dismal-Drizzle’s key strengths lie in their elite status, high consistency, and disciplined risk management, which have contributed to sustained profitability on Polymarket. However, the low bot score and flat equity trend suggest human-driven, cautious trading that may limit rapid portfolio growth. The extremely low sell percentage could also indicate potential exposure to market shifts if positions are held too long. Overall, Dismal-Drizzle demonstrates a stable, risk-conscious approach with solid long-term results.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 97%
Profitable
PnL $+772,056
Diamond Hands
1% sell
DCA Master
avg 21.5 entries/market
Win Streak
18 wins in a row
Whale
$1,833,209
Consistent
159/163 days
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

2
CRYPTO#333$99,327Vol: $10,448,406
SPORTS#308$344,830Vol: $2,635,206

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$772,056
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$13,083,612
Total Redeem
$2,152,862
Portfolio
$48,538
Predictions
9242
total markets
Trades
3179B / 28S
Daily Volume
$886
Account Age
2099d
since Oct 14, 2020

Periods

#2
Today
$-40,749
Vol: $50,072
Week
$-12,108
Vol: $403,139
Month
$311,830
Vol: $2,535,206
All Time
$772,056
Vol: $13,083,612

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
98%
246W / 5L events
Realized PnL
$5,081,322
Win Rate
86%
83W / 13L
Profit Factor
3.36x
Avg Win
$7,019
Avg Loss
$-13,353

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $237,178 (58% of PnL)

Top Winners

Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance$125,500
Morocco leading at halftime?$57,678
United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score$54,000
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev$36,000
Will France win on 2026-06-16?$33,000
Will England win on 2026-07-05?$31,500
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)$30,247
France vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5$29,000
Wimbledon WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova$28,500
Spread: England (-1.5)$26,873

Top Losers

Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Colombia?$-70,931
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Colombia?$-54,336
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Colombia?$-20,971
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$-6,772
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$-5,969
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$-5,400
XRP Up or Down - January 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$-5,192
XRP Up or Down - January 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET$-3,792
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$-99
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$-65

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.660
Sortino
1.507
HHI
479
Diversified
EV per $1
$29.695
Kelly %
52.3%
Half-Kelly
26.2%
Top-1 market
10.1%
Top-5 markets
37.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
16.9
Active
Markets / Day
0.8
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
9s
between trades
Avg Gap
5.4m
between trades
Night Trading
5%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
8.17
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
6 min
Avg Trades / Session
15.8

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
51% < 10s — regular intervalSize CV 8.17 — diverse, typical for human5% at night — normal sleep pattern19/24 hours — extended daySession CV 1.19 — human randomness17 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
21.5
Heavy DCA
<=1
26 entries
<=2
47 entries
<=5
90 entries
<=10
116 entries
<=20
126 entries
<=50
133 entries
>50
15 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0%
Mid (20-55c)45.9%
High (>55c)54.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 54.5%

Other$408,973

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
136

Single bracket

<=1
129 brackets
<=2
132 brackets
<=3
135 brackets
<=4
135 brackets
<=5
136 brackets
<=8
136 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/6/2026, 1:29:27 AM2 trades$5,4000 min
1/8/2026, 1:06:17 AM1 trades$60 min
1/8/2026, 1:13:17 AM8 trades$3,7861 min
1/8/2026, 11:53:00 PM1 trades$50 min
1/8/2026, 11:59:04 PM6 trades$5,1871 min
1/14/2026, 6:00:46 AM37 trades$6,77214 min
2/6/2026, 5:15:49 PM68 trades$5,96914 min
2/13/2026, 2:34:17 PM5 trades$440 min
2/13/2026, 2:45:51 PM10 trades$972 min
2/13/2026, 3:01:01 PM4 trades$402 min
2/13/2026, 3:09:21 PM10 trades$5037 min
2/13/2026, 3:24:05 PM9 trades$4409 min
2/13/2026, 9:53:09 PM6 trades$477 min
2/13/2026, 10:07:17 PM1 trades$1340 min
2/13/2026, 10:13:23 PM7 trades$2022 min
2/13/2026, 11:14:43 PM1 trades$20 min
2/14/2026, 1:24:23 PM17 trades$1,1125 min
2/14/2026, 1:49:13 PM41 trades$2,31641 min
2/14/2026, 2:39:01 PM3 trades$1261 min
2/14/2026, 2:45:37 PM11 trades$53913 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
05-11
06-25
09-27
11-16
03-13
07-15
07-26

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 21.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event