Polydata

@DrPufferfish

#2815

0xdb27bf2ac5d428a9c63dbc914611036855a6c56e

401d· 1589 markets · 94065 tradesVol: $248,466,1812026-07-03T07:39
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

15
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 24%0/20
Profit Factor 0.99x2/15
HHI 4510/10
Profit Days 42%3/10
DD/Peak 125%0/10

Summary

DrPufferfish is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked 28th globally by net profit and boasting a net PnL of over $4 million. With more than 94,000 trades across 835 markets and a total trading volume exceeding $248 million, this trader has been consistently engaged on the platform for over 400 days. Despite a beginner-level Smart Score of 15/100, DrPufferfish maintains a solid profit factor of 1.75 and a win rate close to 58%, indicating steady profitability.

The trading style of DrPufferfish appears semi-automated, blending bot-driven and manual strategies, as reflected by a Bot Score of 65/100. They avoid weather markets entirely and have a low sell percentage of 5%, suggesting a preference for holding positions rather than frequent flipping. Their approach is marked by contrarian moves and dollar-cost averaging, which aligns with their badges such as Contrarian and DCA Master. The trader’s Sharpe ratio near zero and zero days of max drawdown duration indicate stable risk management, albeit with limited volatility-adjusted returns.

DrPufferfish’s key strengths include a large, diversified portfolio across numerous markets and a consistent upward equity trend. Their ability to sustain profitability over a long period and high volume trading is notable. However, the low Smart Score and near-zero Sharpe ratio highlight potential risks in strategy sophistication and risk-adjusted performance. Overall, DrPufferfish demonstrates resilience and steady gains on Polymarket but may benefit from refining risk management techniques.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Profitable
PnL $+4,055,580
Contrarian
83% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
5% sell
DCA Master
avg 107.8 entries/market
Win Streak
7 wins in a row
Whale
$42,503,142
High Roller
$104,430/day

Categories

4
SPORTS#16$3,911,612Vol: $247,712,508
🏛️ POLITICS#209,928$5Vol: $1,598
💰 FINANCE#633,428$-381Vol: $1,514
🌤️ WEATHER#17,274$16Vol: $223

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$4,055,580
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$248,466,181
Total Redeem
$2,074,549
Portfolio
$2,687
Predictions
1589
total markets
Trades
89554B / 4511S
Daily Volume
$104,430
Account Age
401d
since May 29, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$9
Vol: $0
Week
$-15
Vol: $0
Month
$32
Vol: $0
All Time
$4,055,580
Vol: $248,466,181

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
32%
213W / 458L events
Realized PnL
$42,402,417
Win Rate
58%
11W / 8L
Profit Factor
1.75x
Avg Win
$148,843
Avg Loss
$-117,166

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,227,198 (175.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?$624,911
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves$337,276
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?$265,010
Cavaliers vs. Raptors$189,114
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-30?$83,332
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30?$56,950
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)$28,372
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengal$26,145
Timberwolves vs. Spurs$23,104
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?$2,270

Top Losers

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21?$-366,613
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10?$-147,073
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22?$-136,121
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament?$-99,334
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers$-73,375
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30?$-50,970
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?$-42,668
Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ?$-21,172

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.005
Sortino
-0.007
HHI
45
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.008
Kelly %
47.3%
Half-Kelly
23.7%
Top-1 market
1.7%
Top-5 markets
6.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
274.5
Very active
Markets / Day
2.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
12s
between trades
Avg Gap
3.2m
between trades
Night Trading
22%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
11.17
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.9

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 12s — suspiciously fastSize CV 11.17 — diverse, typical for human22% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.11 — human randomness274 trades/day — automation1108 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
107.8
Heavy DCA
<=1
95 entries
<=2
137 entries
<=5
220 entries
<=10
295 entries
<=20
375 entries
<=50
508 entries
>50
323 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)28%
Mid (20-55c)64.9%
High (>55c)7.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 30.1%

Other$742,619
Madrid$0
Los Angeles$0
Munich$0
Paris$0
Chicago$0
Atlanta$0
San Francisco$0
Denver$0
Houston$0
Milan$0
Miami$0
Toronto$0
Seattle$-42,668

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.7
Events covered
502

Single bracket

<=1
301 brackets
<=2
426 brackets
<=3
472 brackets
<=4
495 brackets
<=5
499 brackets
<=8
500 brackets
>8
2 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/30/2025, 3:05:39 PM4 trades$1,7248 min
5/30/2025, 3:19:33 PM1 trades$1710 min
5/31/2025, 2:43:30 PM1 trades$60 min
6/1/2025, 3:45:45 PM2 trades$11,7900 min
6/1/2025, 9:08:35 PM1 trades$440 min
6/1/2025, 9:18:37 PM5 trades$2868 min
6/1/2025, 9:42:43 PM1 trades$1180 min
6/2/2025, 2:42:59 PM1 trades$100 min
6/3/2025, 7:04:40 AM5 trades$20 min
6/3/2025, 7:14:08 AM1 trades$10 min
6/3/2025, 7:35:26 AM1 trades$10 min
6/4/2025, 6:48:46 AM1 trades$130 min
6/4/2025, 6:54:36 AM1 trades$10 min
6/4/2025, 7:08:44 AM1 trades$1440 min
6/6/2025, 12:08:14 AM66 trades$29,01121 min
7/22/2025, 11:06:31 PM2 trades$403 min
7/23/2025, 1:05:53 AM1 trades$55,2220 min
7/29/2025, 12:01:21 AM1 trades$100,2930 min
7/29/2025, 1:31:57 AM1 trades$43,8300 min
9/9/2025, 3:30:36 PM1 trades$5000 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
11-11
12-15
01-15
02-16
03-19
07-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
4.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 107.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.7 br/event