Polydata
Earnest-Baobab

@Earnest-Baobab

#2,812,82490

0x61a32161b485a5f150c7fd28bfc9c78f1cbb9ba9

142d· 771 markets · 859 tradesVol: $229,121 @Ankitk21032026-06-30T05:16
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

90
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 98%20/20
Profit Factor 150.48x15/15
Sharpe 0.74114/15
Sortino 36176.33410/10
EV $+0.0141/10
HHI 4010/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Earnest-Baobab is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with 859 trades across 599 markets over nearly a year. Despite a substantial total trading volume of $229,121, the trader currently holds a net loss of $1,064.45, placing them at rank #2,812,824 globally. Their portfolio value is minimal at $0.45, reflecting a largely flat equity trend and a Sharpe ratio of 0.74, indicating moderate risk-adjusted returns.

The trader exhibits a high win rate of 99.5% with a profit factor of 150.48, suggesting frequent small wins rather than large payouts. Earnest-Baobab appears to prefer low-risk, consistent trading strategies with limited sell activity (14%) and no exposure to weather markets. Their trading style is likely focused on quick, precise entries and exits, as indicated by their "Sniper" and "Win Streak" badges, and low max drawdown duration of zero days. The bot score suggests the trader is human but operates with fast interface usage.

Earnest-Baobab’s key strengths lie in their consistency and ability to maintain a stable portfolio without significant drawdowns. However, their negative net PnL and very low portfolio value raise concerns about overall profitability despite high win rates. The narrow risk profile may limit upside potential, making it critical to monitor whether this trader can translate frequent wins into long-term gains on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Sniper
Win Rate 98%
Win Streak
537 wins in a row
Whale
$140,935
Consistent
53/53 days

Categories

8
CRYPTO#1,541,262$-580Vol: $163,981
SPORTS#65,308$319Vol: $46,680
🏛️ POLITICS#1,579,323$-797Vol: $17,832
🌤️ WEATHER#198,599$-2Vol: $222
📈 ECONOMICS#146,729$0Vol: $176
💰 FINANCE#498,178$-2Vol: $126
🎭 CULTURE#591,196$-3Vol: $82
💻 TECH#135,961$-0Vol: $22

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-1,064
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$229,121
Total Redeem
$112,397
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
771
total markets
Trades
739B / 120S
Daily Volume
$422
Account Age
142d
since Feb 8, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $64
Week
$-2
Vol: $876
Month
$-9
Vol: $14,819
All Time
$-1,064
Vol: $229,121

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
98%
240W / 5L events
Realized PnL
$1,719
Win Rate
99%
559W / 3L
Profit Factor
150.48x
Avg Win
$3
Avg Loss
$-4

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $241 (12.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

T20 World Cup: England vs Pakistan$115
T20 World Cup: England vs India$67
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand$59
T20 World Cup: Zimbabwe vs West Indies$56
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$44
Timberwolves vs. Celtics$43
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies$42
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand$36
T20 World Cup: Zimbabwe vs South Africa$29
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies$28

Top Losers

Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$-12
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET$-0
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.741
Sortino
inf
HHI
40
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.014
Kelly %
96.8%
Half-Kelly
48.4%
Top-1 market
0.9%
Top-5 markets
3.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
6.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
4.3
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
2:00 UTC
Median Gap
14.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.0h
between trades
Night Trading
34%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.32
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.9

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 852s — typical for humanSize CV 1.32 — diverse, typical for human34% at night — bot never sleeps19/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.62 — semi-mechanical

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 2:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.2
Single entry
<=1
515 entries
<=2
573 entries
<=5
595 entries
<=10
599 entries
<=20
599 entries
<=50
599 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3.4%
Mid (20-55c)3.5%
High (>55c)93.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 44.3%

Other$1,917

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
593

Single bracket

<=1
588 brackets
<=2
592 brackets
<=3
593 brackets
<=4
593 brackets
<=5
593 brackets
<=8
593 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/10/2026, 12:21:03 PM3 trades$34 min
2/10/2026, 12:48:07 PM8 trades$6913 min
2/10/2026, 1:18:37 PM1 trades$10 min
2/10/2026, 1:26:45 PM1 trades$300 min
2/10/2026, 1:36:39 PM1 trades$10 min
2/10/2026, 1:59:59 PM1 trades$300 min
2/10/2026, 2:32:03 PM4 trades$527 min
2/10/2026, 3:13:55 PM1 trades$520 min
2/10/2026, 4:00:03 PM1 trades$100 min
2/10/2026, 4:39:31 PM4 trades$886 min
2/10/2026, 4:55:23 PM4 trades$936 min
2/10/2026, 5:12:07 PM2 trades$222 min
2/10/2026, 5:58:35 PM1 trades$200 min
2/11/2026, 1:15:15 AM1 trades$300 min
2/11/2026, 1:43:29 AM1 trades$1220 min
2/11/2026, 2:56:01 AM1 trades$200 min
2/11/2026, 3:14:03 AM2 trades$1250 min
2/11/2026, 4:12:17 AM2 trades$1301 min
2/11/2026, 4:28:29 AM1 trades$1310 min
2/11/2026, 4:41:47 AM2 trades$392 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-31
02-21
03-01
03-09
03-17
03-25
05-10

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
14% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event