Polydata

@Earnest-Keyboarding

#22,18420

0x13d3ed7ebeec50ee794cf0e783df1991ceb7415e

106d· 6718 markets · 2032 tradesVol: $512,3762026-07-14T04:40
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

20
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 45%8/20
Profit Factor 0.74x0/15
HHI 11510/10
Profit Days 38%2/10

Summary

Earnest-Keyboarding is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 2,032 trades executed across 402 markets over 107 days. They hold a global PnL rank of #22,184 and have generated a net profit of $5,740.22 from a total volume of $512,376. Despite a relatively modest portfolio value of $88.91, Earnest-Keyboarding maintains an upward equity trend, indicating consistent growth. Their Smart Score of 20/100 reflects a beginner status, while a Bot Score of 45/100 suggests a hybrid trading approach combining automated and manual strategies.

This trader predominantly focuses on weather markets, comprising 97% of their trades, and exhibits a high win rate of 85.5%. Their profit factor of 1.93 indicates nearly double the gains relative to losses, and a sell percentage of 21% suggests a preference for holding positions rather than frequent exits. Earnest-Keyboarding appears to favor lower-risk, steady-return trades, supported by an absence of drawdown duration, though their Sharpe ratio of -0.21 points to suboptimal risk-adjusted returns. Timing-wise, there is no indication of prolonged inactivity, aligning with a consistent, steady trading rhythm.

Earnest-Keyboarding’s key strengths include a strong win rate and a profitable track record in niche weather markets on Polymarket, supported by an upward equity trend. However, their beginner status and negative Sharpe ratio highlight potential vulnerabilities in risk management and portfolio optimization. The semi-bot trading style may offer efficiency benefits but could also expose them to automation-related risks. Overall, while Earnest-Keyboarding shows promise, continued skill development and risk calibration would be beneficial.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Profitable
PnL $+5,740
Lottery Player
35% entries <$0.20
Weather Pro
97% weather
Win Streak
19 wins in a row

Categories

2
🌤️ WEATHER#328$5,716Vol: $511,900
CRYPTO#166,796$24Vol: $445

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$5,740
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$512,376
Total Redeem
$3,432
Portfolio
$89
Predictions
6718
total markets
Trades
1599B / 433S
Daily Volume
$119
Account Age
106d
since Mar 30, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$12
Vol: $1,376
Week
$-27
Vol: $10,911
Month
$593
Vol: $92,611
All Time
$5,740
Vol: $512,376

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
47%
204W / 227L events
Realized PnL
$4,735
Win Rate
85%
53W / 9L
Profit Factor
1.93x
Avg Win
$11
Avg Loss
$-34

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $419 (149.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 13?$163
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 10?$153
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 11?$103
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 7?$33
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 7?$26
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 8$23
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 12?$22
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 8?$12
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 10?$5
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 5?$5

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 8?$-178
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 2?$-60
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29?$-31
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 2?$-20
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 8?$-5
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 8?$-4
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 8?$-3
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 6?$-1
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 2?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.213
Sortino
-0.376
HHI
115
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.266
Kelly %
59.8%
Half-Kelly
29.9%
Top-1 market
5.6%
Top-5 markets
18.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
19.1
Active
Markets / Day
3.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
5:00 UTC
Median Gap
9.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.1h
between trades
Night Trading
45%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.29
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 546s — typical for humanSize CV 2.29 — diverse, typical for human45% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.01 — human randomness19 trades/day — very active606 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 5:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4
Moderate DCA
<=1
112 entries
<=2
175 entries
<=5
330 entries
<=10
377 entries
<=20
397 entries
<=50
402 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)35.4%
Mid (20-55c)13.1%
High (>55c)51.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 33.6%

Hong Kong$250
Guangzhou$171
Seoul$19
Qingdao$4
Wuhan$3
Chongqing$3
Tokyo$2
Ankara$2
Manila$1
Chengdu$1
Beijing$1
Warsaw$1
Wellington$0
Taipei$0
Singapore$0
Paris$0
Munich$0
Moscow$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
322

Single bracket

<=1
278 brackets
<=2
300 brackets
<=3
314 brackets
<=4
321 brackets
<=5
321 brackets
<=8
322 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/30/2026, 12:49:44 AM7 trades$716 min
3/30/2026, 1:13:44 AM1 trades$00 min
3/30/2026, 1:55:08 AM1 trades$170 min
3/30/2026, 2:00:46 AM2 trades$250 min
3/30/2026, 2:13:16 AM4 trades$283 min
3/30/2026, 2:26:04 AM1 trades$100 min
3/30/2026, 3:29:34 AM1 trades$00 min
3/30/2026, 8:48:10 AM3 trades$32 min
3/30/2026, 8:55:48 AM1 trades$10 min
3/30/2026, 10:10:44 AM1 trades$00 min
3/30/2026, 10:24:06 AM1 trades$10 min
3/30/2026, 11:32:18 AM1 trades$50 min
3/30/2026, 12:03:06 PM5 trades$114 min
3/30/2026, 12:12:02 PM3 trades$61 min
3/30/2026, 1:23:58 PM1 trades$150 min
3/30/2026, 9:01:35 PM1 trades$30 min
3/31/2026, 1:30:55 AM4 trades$60 min
3/31/2026, 2:01:13 AM1 trades$10 min
3/31/2026, 3:39:57 AM1 trades$10 min
3/31/2026, 4:01:45 AM3 trades$41 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-30
04-16
05-03
05-21
06-09
06-29
07-14

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
97% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
21.3% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event