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@Elaborate-Bail

#28,56140

0xd04a3afa125ab31977587245dce2c20b4fca672c

143d· 3065 markets · 1825 tradesVol: $466,0152026-06-24T23:46
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

40
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.14x0/15
HHI 710/10
Profit Days 78%10/10

Summary

Elaborate-Bail is a moderately active Polymarket trader with 1,825 trades executed over 94 days. Despite a below-average Smart Score of 40/100 and a global PnL rank of #28,561, they have achieved a net profit of $3,990.31 on a total volume of $466,015. Their portfolio value currently stands at zero, and the equity trend shows steady growth, indicating recent profitable activity.

The trader’s strategy appears focused on high-frequency, low-risk trades across a wide range of markets, having traded 1,680 different markets. Elaborate-Bail’s win rate is notably high at 86.3%, but the profit factor of 0.14 and a negative Sharpe ratio (-0.23) suggest limited profitability per trade and some volatility. Their low sell percentage (4%) and badges like “Diamond Hands” imply a preference for holding positions rather than frequent selling. The mix of bot-assisted and manual trading is reflected in a semi-bot score of 45/100.

Elaborate-Bail’s key strength is a consistent upward equity trend and a strong win rate, signaling disciplined execution and effective market timing. However, the low profit factor and negative Sharpe ratio raise concerns about the risk-adjusted returns and potential exposure to drawdowns. Their lack of weather market engagement and very short drawdown duration may limit diversification benefits on Polymarket. Overall, Elaborate-Bail demonstrates promising consistency but should monitor risk-adjusted performance metrics closely.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+3,990
Diamond Hands
4% sell
Win Streak
251 wins in a row
Whale
$329,825
Consistent
69/88 days
High Roller
$3,517/day

Categories

1
CRYPTO#11,413$3,990Vol: $466,015

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$3,990
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$466,015
Total Redeem
$279,637
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
3065
total markets
Trades
1755B / 70S
Daily Volume
$3,517
Account Age
143d
since Feb 14, 2026

Periods

#2
Month
$5
Vol: $711
All Time
$3,990
Vol: $466,015

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
250W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$5,043
Win Rate
86%
1423W / 226L
Profit Factor
0.14x
Avg Win
$5
Avg Loss
$-205

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$782
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$136
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$46
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$32
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$31
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$27
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$27
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET$26
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$25
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$25

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$-1,344
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$-1,039
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$-953
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$-692
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$-513
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$-352
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$-343
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$-339
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$-329
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$-328

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.233
Sortino
-0.125
HHI
7
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.123
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
0.4%
Top-5 markets
1.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
19.5
Active
Markets / Day
17.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
17.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.1h
between trades
Night Trading
20%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.38
Moderate
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.2

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
MEDIUM
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 1030s — typical for humanSize CV 0.38 — uniform orders20% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.97 — human randomness19 trades/day — very active18 markets/day — mass coverage

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1
Single entry
<=1
1629 entries
<=2
1665 entries
<=5
1680 entries
<=10
1680 entries
<=20
1680 entries
<=50
1680 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0%
Mid (20-55c)0.1%
High (>55c)99.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 49.2%

Other$-39,647

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
1680

Single bracket

<=1
1680 brackets
<=2
1680 brackets
<=3
1680 brackets
<=4
1680 brackets
<=5
1680 brackets
<=8
1680 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/28/2026, 5:48:03 PM1 trades$570 min
3/1/2026, 10:47:07 PM1 trades$780 min
3/2/2026, 3:07:27 PM2 trades$1464 min
3/2/2026, 6:17:27 PM1 trades$740 min
3/3/2026, 8:56:31 AM1 trades$730 min
3/3/2026, 2:41:11 PM1 trades$830 min
3/3/2026, 4:06:11 PM1 trades$820 min
3/3/2026, 5:01:43 PM1 trades$800 min
3/3/2026, 8:18:31 PM1 trades$770 min
3/4/2026, 2:03:17 AM1 trades$950 min
3/4/2026, 6:52:43 AM1 trades$670 min
3/4/2026, 8:18:19 AM2 trades$990 min
3/4/2026, 8:57:27 AM1 trades$1070 min
3/4/2026, 9:05:53 AM1 trades$1130 min
3/4/2026, 9:42:47 AM1 trades$960 min
3/4/2026, 10:33:37 AM1 trades$1220 min
3/4/2026, 2:36:15 PM2 trades$1230 min
3/4/2026, 2:58:17 PM2 trades$2433 min
3/4/2026, 3:17:09 PM1 trades$1260 min
3/4/2026, 3:51:37 PM1 trades$1150 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-28
03-14
03-28
04-12
04-27
05-14
05-28

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
3.8% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event