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@Elementary-Cowbell

#13,90187

0x465ace6ef4d7e4c09bdb0fad52ef7016286ec619

136d· 304 markets · 1008 tradesVol: $102,9622026-07-19T22:53
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

87
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 97%20/20
Profit Factor 21.52x15/15
Sharpe 0.3977/15
Sortino 0.4284/10
EV $+22.02610/10
HHI 22510/10
Profit Days 98%10/10
DD/Peak 3%10/10

Summary

Elementary-Cowbell is an active manual trader on Polymarket, ranked #13,901 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 140 days, they have executed 1,008 trades across 268 markets, generating a net profit of $10,424.29 on a total volume of approximately $103,000. Their Smart Score of 87 classifies them as an elite trader, supported by a 97.6% win rate and an impressive profit factor of 65.04. Despite a relatively small portfolio value of $0.55, Elementary-Cowbell’s consistent equity trend and zero-day max drawdown duration highlight stable performance.

Elementary-Cowbell tends to favor a contrarian trading style with a focus on precision, as indicated by their sniper and consistent badges. Their trading approach shows a balanced risk profile, with nearly half of their positions sold rather than held, suggesting active position management and timely exits. The absence of weather market trades implies a preference for other event categories. Their Sharpe ratio of 0.40 points to moderate risk-adjusted returns, while the low bot score confirms manual trading without automation.

The key strengths of Elementary-Cowbell are their high win rate, consistent profits, and ability to avoid prolonged drawdowns, which contribute to their elite status on Polymarket. However, their relatively low portfolio value and flat equity trend could indicate limited capital deployment or cautious scaling. Additionally, the moderate Sharpe ratio suggests some exposure to volatility, which may warrant monitoring as trading volume grows. Overall, Elementary-Cowbell demonstrates disciplined and effective manual trading in Polymarket’s diverse environment.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 97%
Profitable
PnL $+10,424
Contrarian
67% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
72 wins in a row
Consistent
94/96 days
Cool Head
DD 3%

Categories

1
SPORTS#5,388$9,935Vol: $89,051

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$10,424
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$102,962
Total Redeem
$10,015
Portfolio
$1
Predictions
304
total markets
Trades
512B / 496S
Daily Volume
$120
Account Age
136d
since Mar 9, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$1
Vol: $15
Week
$23
Vol: $15
Month
$326
Vol: $4,893
All Time
$10,424
Vol: $102,962

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
98%
235W / 6L events
Realized PnL
$11,548
Win Rate
98%
241W / 6L
Profit Factor
65.04x
Avg Win
$33
Avg Loss
$-21

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,738 (22% of PnL)

Top Winners

Spread: Hungary (-1.5)$879
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)$502
Set 1 Winner: Dellien vs Schoenhaus$357
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner$289
UFC Fight Night: Robert Bryczek vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Ma$275
Camila Osorio vs. Panna Udvardy: Total Sets O/U 2.5$242
McDonald vs. O'Connell: Match O/U 36.5$229
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 2 Winner$226
Perricard vs. Andreescu: Match O/U 21.5$221
Montgomery vs. Inglis: Match O/U 23.5$221

Top Losers

Clippers vs. Pelicans: 1H Moneyline$-107
Karan Singh vs. Guillaume Dalmasso: Total Sets O/U 2.5$-8
Droguet vs. Aguilar: Match O/U 21.5$-5
Set 4 Winner: Minaur vs Burruchaga$-2
Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)$-1
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Dripmen (BO3) - ESL Challenger Le$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.397
Sortino
0.428
HHI
225
Diversified
EV per $1
$22.026
Kelly %
97.0%
Half-Kelly
48.5%
Top-1 market
6.5%
Top-5 markets
24.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
7.7
Moderate
Markets / Day
2.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.6h
between trades
Night Trading
5%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.76
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 231s — typical for humanSize CV 2.76 — diverse, typical for human5% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.10 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.9
Single entry
<=1
193 entries
<=2
227 entries
<=5
253 entries
<=10
263 entries
<=20
268 entries
<=50
268 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)18.6%
Mid (20-55c)58.4%
High (>55c)23%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 44.2%

Other$7,637
Milan$145
Houston$69
Madrid$26
São Paulo$13
Shanghai$-1

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
245

Single bracket

<=1
229 brackets
<=2
241 brackets
<=3
244 brackets
<=4
245 brackets
<=5
245 brackets
<=8
245 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/10/2026, 9:49:51 PM2 trades$20 min
3/10/2026, 11:05:51 PM1 trades$100 min
3/13/2026, 10:53:51 AM1 trades$50 min
3/13/2026, 11:02:51 AM1 trades$10 min
3/13/2026, 2:12:39 PM3 trades$420 min
3/13/2026, 2:34:25 PM4 trades$410 min
3/13/2026, 2:57:23 PM1 trades$240 min
3/14/2026, 6:49:47 PM2 trades$180 min
3/18/2026, 11:02:37 AM1 trades$70 min
3/18/2026, 11:07:53 AM1 trades$120 min
3/18/2026, 12:30:03 PM1 trades$30 min
3/19/2026, 10:53:31 PM1 trades$20 min
3/19/2026, 11:00:21 PM1 trades$30 min
3/20/2026, 12:53:55 AM1 trades$1080 min
3/20/2026, 1:06:45 AM1 trades$10 min
3/20/2026, 8:44:53 PM2 trades$81 min
3/24/2026, 2:18:15 PM1 trades$10 min
3/24/2026, 2:25:53 PM1 trades$10 min
3/24/2026, 7:46:47 PM1 trades$100 min
3/24/2026, 7:52:19 PM1 trades$130 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-10
04-04
04-23
05-11
05-31
06-29

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
49.2% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event