Polydata

@Emotional-Yolk

#2,977,26628

0xb148e374cf3b227625c154f958f9ec57c5079355

245d· 180 markets · 309 tradesVol: $1,084,2382026-07-06T18:17
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

28
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 55%13/20
Profit Factor 0.91x1/15
HHI 7810/10
Profit Days 47%4/10
DD/Peak 245%0/10

Summary

Emotional-Yolk is a relatively active trader on Polymarket, with 309 trades across 180 markets over 238 days. Despite a high volume of $1,084,238 traded, Emotional-Yolk currently holds a net loss of $28,040.40, placing them at rank #2,977,266 on the global PnL leaderboard. Their portfolio value has declined to zero, and their smart score is below average at 28/100, indicating challenges in profitable trading.

The trader exhibits a high-risk style, characterized by a very low sell percentage (1%) and a nearly perfect win rate of 99%, which suggests overconfidence or potentially unsustainable trading patterns. Emotional-Yolk does not engage in weather markets and appears to favor long-term holding, as reflected by the diamond hands badge and a minimal drawdown duration. Their profit factor is unusually high at 164.86, but the negative Sharpe ratio (-0.10) points to poor risk-adjusted returns. Manual trading is confirmed with a low bot score of 15/100.

Emotional-Yolk’s strengths include strong conviction and persistence, as seen in their win streak and high roller badges. However, the downward equity trend and a sizeable negative net PnL raise concerns about their risk management and position sizing. The disparity between win rate and overall loss indicates that occasional large losses may be outweighing frequent small wins, posing a significant risk in sustained profitability on Polymarket.

Badges

4
Diamond Hands
1% sell
Win Streak
94 wins in a row
Whale
$545,855
High Roller
$2,294/day

Categories

2
CRYPTO#1,625,469$-11,829Vol: $765,061
SPORTS#1,806,208$-19,110Vol: $296,571

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-28,040
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,084,238
Total Redeem
$511,357
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
180
total markets
Trades
305B / 4S
Daily Volume
$2,294
Account Age
245d
since Nov 3, 2025

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
55%
99W / 81L events
Realized PnL
$226,243
Win Rate
99%
99W / 1L
Profit Factor
164.86x
Avg Win
$2,312
Avg Loss
$-1,389

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $20,628 (9.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

Jets vs. Blackhawks$9,423
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31?$6,000
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET$5,205
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$5,132
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$5,018
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$4,950
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$4,918
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET$4,844
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$4,760
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$4,667

Top Losers

Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?$-1,389

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.102
Sortino
-0.140
HHI
78
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.093
Kelly %
98.7%
Half-Kelly
49.3%
Top-1 market
2.4%
Top-5 markets
8.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.8
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
19.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.9h
between trades
Night Trading
5%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.87
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.1

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1160s — typical for humanSize CV 0.87 — diverse, typical for human5% at night — normal sleep pattern22/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.24 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.7
Single entry
<=1
110 entries
<=2
148 entries
<=5
178 entries
<=10
180 entries
<=20
180 entries
<=50
180 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0%
Mid (20-55c)44.9%
High (>55c)55.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 53.3%

Other$227,544
Madrid$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
180

Single bracket

<=1
180 brackets
<=2
180 brackets
<=3
180 brackets
<=4
180 brackets
<=5
180 brackets
<=8
180 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/3/2025, 1:51:49 PM1 trades$1,8420 min
11/3/2025, 8:17:39 PM1 trades$1,2090 min
11/4/2025, 1:27:05 PM1 trades$1,9140 min
11/4/2025, 10:55:35 PM1 trades$2,4660 min
11/5/2025, 9:32:21 AM1 trades$1,2600 min
11/5/2025, 4:44:05 PM1 trades$1,9050 min
11/5/2025, 6:06:07 PM1 trades$3,0450 min
11/6/2025, 1:33:03 AM1 trades$6,6160 min
11/9/2025, 8:03:17 AM1 trades$2,5100 min
3/16/2026, 11:08:05 AM1 trades$4840 min
3/17/2026, 1:01:51 PM1 trades$4850 min
3/18/2026, 12:56:01 PM1 trades$4850 min
3/18/2026, 1:18:45 PM1 trades$1960 min
3/18/2026, 2:39:15 PM1 trades$9690 min
3/18/2026, 8:16:05 PM1 trades$1,4570 min
3/19/2026, 9:01:33 PM1 trades$1,9390 min
3/20/2026, 9:27:51 PM1 trades$1,2600 min
3/20/2026, 9:50:39 PM1 trades$1,8740 min
3/20/2026, 10:21:03 PM1 trades$1,1680 min
3/20/2026, 10:44:33 PM1 trades$1,1630 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-03
11-12
03-20
04-01
06-13
06-19

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
1.3% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event