Polydata

@Exalted-Peak

#2,730,82881

0xa8985d096b5ecc3c6394d71aeb5600b030eef720

111d· 1933 markets · 1679 tradesVol: $50,1512026-06-30T11:29
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

81
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 49%10/20
Profit Factor 14.55x15/15
Sharpe 0.51710/15
Sortino 1.36210/10
EV $+0.59010/10
HHI 1710/10
Profit Days 58%7/10
DD/Peak 12%10/10

Summary

Exalted-Peak is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having executed 1,679 trades across 1,118 different markets over 111 days. Despite a negative net PnL of $-491.69 and a low portfolio value of $9.80, their overall rank stands at #2,730,828 globally. The trader maintains a high win rate of 90.2% and a strong profit factor of 14.55, indicating consistent success in winning trades, though profitability has not yet materialized into positive returns.

The trading style of Exalted-Peak appears to favor a high volume, diversified approach with a low sell percentage of 12%, suggesting a preference for holding positions rather than frequent flipping. The absence of weather markets in their portfolio shows specialization elsewhere. Their Sharpe ratio of 0.52 reflects moderate risk-adjusted returns, and the zero-day max drawdown duration implies disciplined risk management. The semi-automated bot score of 45/100 points to a mixed manual and algorithmic strategy, potentially leveraging both systematic and discretionary insights.

Exalted-Peak’s strengths lie in their strong win streak and cool-headed trading demeanor, as highlighted by their badges, which help sustain an upward equity trend despite current losses. However, the negative net PnL and low portfolio value raise concerns about capital efficiency and profitability scaling. Their semi-bot trading style may also introduce execution inconsistencies. Continued monitoring of their performance on Polymarket is warranted to assess if their high win rate will translate into sustainable gains.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

2
Win Streak
48 wins in a row
Cool Head
DD 12%

Categories

2
CRYPTO#1,532,602$-495Vol: $49,438
SPORTS#333,500$4Vol: $713

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-492
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$50,151
Total Redeem
$7,162
Portfolio
$10
Predictions
1933
total markets
Trades
1475B / 204S
Daily Volume
$76
Account Age
111d
since Mar 11, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$117
Vol: $960
Week
$117
Vol: $960
Month
$158
Vol: $11,778
All Time
$-492
Vol: $50,151

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
49%
251W / 258L events
Realized PnL
$3,183
Win Rate
90%
601W / 65L
Profit Factor
14.55x
Avg Win
$5
Avg Loss
$-3

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $134 (4.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$68
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$30
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET$23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$19

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$-15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$-15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$-10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$-9
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$-7
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$-7
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$-6
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$-6
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$-6

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.517
Sortino
1.362
HHI
18
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.591
Kelly %
87.0%
Half-Kelly
43.5%
Top-1 market
1.2%
Top-5 markets
4.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
15.1
Active
Markets / Day
10.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
10:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
15.0m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.85
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.2

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 173s — typical for humanSize CV 0.85 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.86 — human randomness15 trades/day — very active10 markets/day — mass coverage510 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 10:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.3
Single entry
<=1
858 entries
<=2
1053 entries
<=5
1115 entries
<=10
1118 entries
<=20
1118 entries
<=50
1118 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)2.8%
Mid (20-55c)67.5%
High (>55c)29.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 33.3%

Other$2,869

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
1117

Single bracket

<=1
1116 brackets
<=2
1117 brackets
<=3
1117 brackets
<=4
1117 brackets
<=5
1117 brackets
<=8
1117 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/11/2026, 7:28:47 AM1 trades$10 min
3/11/2026, 12:32:13 PM1 trades$100 min
3/14/2026, 1:49:49 PM1 trades$50 min
3/14/2026, 4:51:51 PM1 trades$50 min
3/14/2026, 5:03:21 PM1 trades$50 min
3/14/2026, 5:11:45 PM1 trades$50 min
3/15/2026, 10:39:07 AM1 trades$100 min
3/15/2026, 10:49:15 AM1 trades$100 min
3/15/2026, 11:41:29 AM1 trades$50 min
3/15/2026, 11:53:33 AM1 trades$100 min
3/15/2026, 12:21:55 PM1 trades$200 min
3/15/2026, 12:30:57 PM1 trades$200 min
3/15/2026, 12:52:47 PM1 trades$980 min
3/15/2026, 1:30:37 PM1 trades$60 min
3/15/2026, 2:11:57 PM1 trades$990 min
3/16/2026, 8:39:19 AM1 trades$50 min
3/16/2026, 8:59:27 AM1 trades$150 min
3/16/2026, 9:06:07 AM1 trades$300 min
3/16/2026, 9:50:05 AM1 trades$250 min
3/16/2026, 10:15:01 AM5 trades$100 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-11
03-17
05-02
05-06
06-04
06-21
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
12.2% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event