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@Excited-Ammunition

#234,76794

0xe0a6ffe67575e21c9acc00c80cda72598db97dce

144d· 4145 markets · 3306 tradesVol: $147,7462026-05-14T13:50
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

94
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 7.21x15/15
Sharpe 0.4769/15
Sortino 43274.26110/10
EV $+0.99910/10
HHI 16410/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Excited-Ammunition is an active Polymarket trader ranked #234,767 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $80.77. Over 118 days, they executed 3,306 trades across 480 markets, generating $147,746 in volume. Despite a modest portfolio value of zero, their performance metrics are strong, including a 96% win rate and a profit factor of 7.21, supported by a Smart Score of 94/100, placing them in the elite category.

This trader predominantly focuses on weather-related markets, comprising 70% of their activity, and exhibits a contrarian and sniper-style approach. Excited-Ammunition favors selling positions, with 74% of trades being sells, indicating a preference for short-term, high-frequency trading strategies. Their Sharpe ratio is moderate at 0.48, suggesting balanced risk-adjusted returns, while the absence of drawdown duration points to disciplined risk management and timely trade exits.

Key strengths for Excited-Ammunition include a high win rate, strong profit factor, and consistent trading volume, which collectively demonstrate effective market timing and decision-making on Polymarket. However, their flat equity trend and low portfolio value indicate limited capital growth potential, while reliance on weather markets and a human-driven fast interface could expose them to sudden volatility or behavioral biases.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+81
Lottery Player
73% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
79% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
282 wins in a row
Consistent
45/45 days

Categories

7
🌤️ WEATHER#8,504$50Vol: $64,201
CRYPTO#285,012$4Vol: $61,282
🎭 CULTURE#35,177$33Vol: $20,508
📈 ECONOMICS#496,950$-2Vol: $1,121
SPORTS#332,009$2Vol: $380
💰 FINANCE#58,588$6Vol: $145
🏛️ POLITICS#1,241,834$-12Vol: $110

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$81
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$147,746
Total Redeem
$1,563
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
4145
total markets
Trades
846B / 2460S
Daily Volume
$17
Account Age
144d
since Dec 28, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$1
Vol: $121
Week
$0
Vol: $122
Month
$18
Vol: $122
All Time
$81
Vol: $147,746

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
164W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$1,947
Win Rate
96%
335W / 14L
Profit Factor
7.21x
Avg Win
$7
Avg Loss
$-23

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $320 (16% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 202$113
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 202$107
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 202$101
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 202$60
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 202$60
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 202$36
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$36
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 202$35
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 202$29
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 202$24

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9PM ET$-61
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10PM ET$-53
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12PM ET$-43
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 26?$-38
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8PM ET$-36
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12PM ET$-20
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET$-19
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11AM ET$-17
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$-14
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6AM ET$-9

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.476
Sortino
inf
HHI
164
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.999
Kelly %
93.2%
Half-Kelly
46.6%
Top-1 market
3%
Top-5 markets
12.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
28.5
Active
Markets / Day
4.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
24.3m
between trades
Night Trading
16%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.13
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.1

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 74s — typical for humanSize CV 3.13 — diverse, typical for human16% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.99 — human randomness28 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
4.2
Moderate DCA
<=1
131 entries
<=2
143 entries
<=5
157 entries
<=10
180 entries
<=20
197 entries
<=50
201 entries
>50
1 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)72.7%
Mid (20-55c)7.4%
High (>55c)19.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 28.5%

Other$477
Milan$106
London$100
Singapore$100
Munich$98
Seoul$84
Paris$84
Miami$78
New York City$61
Moscow$58
Atlanta$57
Wellington$56
Seattle$54
Ankara$50
Tokyo$46
Warsaw$43
Tel Aviv$40
Houston$33

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.6
Events covered
307

Single bracket

<=1
212 brackets
<=2
260 brackets
<=3
290 brackets
<=4
301 brackets
<=5
303 brackets
<=8
306 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/18/2026, 10:52:20 AM37 trades$117 min
1/19/2026, 1:22:10 AM1 trades$10 min
1/19/2026, 1:40:26 AM1 trades$10 min
1/19/2026, 5:24:24 AM2 trades$10 min
1/19/2026, 7:20:46 AM1 trades$10 min
1/19/2026, 10:11:52 AM1 trades$00 min
1/19/2026, 10:32:28 AM1 trades$00 min
1/19/2026, 11:00:38 AM1 trades$00 min
1/19/2026, 11:15:10 AM1 trades$10 min
1/19/2026, 11:27:12 AM1 trades$00 min
1/19/2026, 11:35:40 AM1 trades$10 min
1/19/2026, 11:42:08 AM11 trades$615 min
1/19/2026, 12:25:52 PM4 trades$38 min
1/19/2026, 1:04:24 PM1 trades$10 min
1/19/2026, 1:22:52 PM1 trades$10 min
1/19/2026, 1:52:06 PM1 trades$30 min
1/19/2026, 1:58:20 PM3 trades$26 min
1/19/2026, 2:12:30 PM1 trades$10 min
1/19/2026, 2:21:46 PM1 trades$20 min
1/19/2026, 2:38:24 PM4 trades$47 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-16
01-24
02-27
04-05
04-12
04-20
04-29

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
70% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
74.4% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 4.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.6 br/event