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@Excited-Ammunition

#387,13394

0xe0a6ffe67575e21c9acc00c80cda72598db97dce

198d· 4204 markets · 3224 tradesVol: $149,4552026-06-26T15:28
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

94
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 5.91x15/15
Sharpe 0.5069/15
Sortino 44589.70410/10
EV $+0.76010/10
HHI 11510/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Excited-Ammunition is a highly active trader on Polymarket, with 3,224 trades executed across 486 markets over 132 days. Ranked #387,133 globally on the PnL leaderboard, they have achieved a net profit of $22.48 on a substantial volume of $149,455. Despite a modest overall rank, their Smart Score is an elite 94/100, reflecting strong trading acumen and consistency. The trader's portfolio value currently stands at zero, indicating all positions are closed, while their Sharpe ratio of 0.51 suggests moderate risk-adjusted returns.

This trader shows a clear preference for weather-related markets, which constitute 60% of their activity. Excited-Ammunition demonstrates a contrarian style with a high sell percentage of 74%, indicating a focus on timely exits and profit-taking. Their win rate is an impressive 91.6%, supported by a profit factor of 5.91, which points to a low-risk, high-reward trading strategy. The short max drawdown duration of zero days and an upward equity trend further imply disciplined and effective risk management. Their trading style combines precision ("Sniper" badge) with occasional lottery-like bets, suggesting opportunistic risk-taking.

Excited-Ammunition’s strengths lie in their strong consistency, high win rate, and ability to maintain an upward equity trend without prolonged drawdowns. Their elite Smart Score and profitable streak badges highlight competence in market timing and trade execution. However, the relatively low Sharpe ratio and modest net PnL compared to the total volume suggest that while they win often, individual gains are small, which may limit scalability. Additionally, the likelihood of being human rather than a bot indicates potential for variability in performance during high-volatility events. Overall, Excited-Ammunition presents a disciplined yet cautious approach to Polymarket trading.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+22
Lottery Player
59% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
69% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
264 wins in a row
Consistent
46/46 days

Categories

7
🌤️ WEATHER#9,530$50Vol: $64,201
CRYPTO#1,348,298$-55Vol: $62,978
🎭 CULTURE#37,571$33Vol: $20,508
📈 ECONOMICS#515,391$-2Vol: $1,121
SPORTS#357,133$2Vol: $380
💰 FINANCE#61,790$7Vol: $157
🏛️ POLITICS#1,285,181$-12Vol: $110

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$22
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$149,455
Total Redeem
$2,117
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
4204
total markets
Trades
841B / 2383S
Daily Volume
$21
Account Age
198d
since Dec 28, 2025

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
172W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$2,051
Win Rate
92%
347W / 32L
Profit Factor
5.91x
Avg Win
$7
Avg Loss
$-13

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $329 (16.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 202$113
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$110
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 202$107
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 202$101
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 202$60
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 202$60
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 202$36
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$36
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 202$35
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 202$29

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9PM ET$-61
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10PM ET$-53
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12PM ET$-43
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 26?$-38
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8PM ET$-36
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12PM ET$-20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET$-20
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET$-19
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11AM ET$-17
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, $-15

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.506
Sortino
inf
HHI
115
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.760
Kelly %
86.4%
Half-Kelly
43.2%
Top-1 market
3%
Top-5 markets
10.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
24.4
Active
Markets / Day
3.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
27.6m
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.37
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.0

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 84s — typical for humanSize CV 2.37 — diverse, typical for human15% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.98 — human randomness24 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.8
Moderate DCA
<=1
135 entries
<=2
166 entries
<=5
187 entries
<=10
203 entries
<=20
219 entries
<=50
223 entries
>50
1 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)58.9%
Mid (20-55c)12.7%
High (>55c)28.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 36.3%

Other$555
Milan$106
London$100
Singapore$100
Munich$98
Paris$84
Seoul$80
Miami$78
Moscow$58
New York City$57
Atlanta$57
Seattle$50
Wellington$48
Tokyo$46
Ankara$45
Warsaw$43
Tel Aviv$40
Houston$33

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
341

Single bracket

<=1
260 brackets
<=2
303 brackets
<=3
327 brackets
<=4
336 brackets
<=5
337 brackets
<=8
340 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/15/2026, 5:09:22 PM1 trades$10 min
1/15/2026, 5:25:48 PM1 trades$40 min
1/16/2026, 7:32:22 AM1 trades$20 min
1/16/2026, 7:38:22 AM1 trades$20 min
1/16/2026, 3:41:04 PM1 trades$60 min
1/17/2026, 11:50:42 AM1 trades$10 min
1/17/2026, 12:56:16 PM1 trades$10 min
1/17/2026, 2:16:14 PM1 trades$10 min
1/17/2026, 2:50:32 PM1 trades$10 min
1/17/2026, 3:10:08 PM5 trades$49 min
1/17/2026, 3:40:24 PM4 trades$34 min
1/17/2026, 3:50:14 PM3 trades$12 min
1/17/2026, 4:00:22 PM9 trades$510 min
1/17/2026, 4:17:24 PM1 trades$10 min
1/18/2026, 10:52:20 AM37 trades$117 min
1/19/2026, 1:22:10 AM1 trades$10 min
1/19/2026, 1:40:26 AM1 trades$10 min
1/19/2026, 5:24:24 AM2 trades$10 min
1/19/2026, 7:20:46 AM1 trades$10 min
1/19/2026, 10:11:52 AM1 trades$00 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-16
01-24
02-27
04-05
04-12
04-20
04-29

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
60.3% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
73.9% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event