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@Exhausted-Greatgrandfather

#2,615,79092

0x370f63ffd0b802f2ebb79b50998aeedc1602eaf5

104d· 721 markets · 786 tradesVol: $17,8732026-06-27T18:28
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

92
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 88%20/20
Profit Factor 4.65x15/15
Sharpe 0.4899/15
Sortino 0.7648/10
EV $+3.88410/10
HHI 3910/10
Profit Days 84%10/10
DD/Peak 11%10/10

Summary

Exhausted-Greatgrandfather is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having executed 786 trades across 437 markets over 95 days. Despite a substantial total trading volume of $17,873, the trader currently holds a net loss of $234.54, placing them at rank #2,615,790 globally on the PnL leaderboard. Their Smart Score of 92/100 indicates elite analytical skills, though the portfolio value is presently zero, reflecting an overall downward equity trend.

This trader shows a strong preference for weather-related markets, which constitute 53% of their trades, and exhibits a contrarian yet consistent trading style. With a high win rate of 92.2% and a profit factor of 21.08, Exhausted-Greatgrandfather tends to take calculated risks and often times their entries with precision, as suggested by badges like Sniper and Cool Head. Their sell rate is relatively low at 28%, indicating a tendency to hold positions rather than frequently flipping them. The Sharpe ratio of 0.49 suggests moderate risk-adjusted returns, and the absence of drawdown duration implies disciplined risk controls.

The key strength of Exhausted-Greatgrandfather lies in their disciplined, consistent approach and ability to win a high percentage of trades, especially in niche markets like weather. However, the negative net PnL and declining equity trend raise concerns about sustainability and capital management. The relatively low Bot Score confirms manual trading, which could limit scalability. Overall, their strategy shows promise but carries risks related to market selection and portfolio drawdowns on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 88%
Contrarian
61% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
59 wins in a row
Consistent
38/45 days
Cool Head
DD 11%

Categories

8
🌤️ WEATHER#275,565$-134Vol: $13,525
CRYPTO#1,321,516$-44Vol: $2,960
🏛️ POLITICS#1,379,934$-27Vol: $720
💻 TECH#222,787$-23Vol: $304
SPORTS#332,828$4Vol: $255
💰 FINANCE#550,565$-9Vol: $81
🎭 CULTURE#398,410$-0Vol: $15
📢 MENTIONS#78,300$-1Vol: $14

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-235
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$17,873
Total Redeem
$328
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
721
total markets
Trades
568B / 218S
Daily Volume
$10
Account Age
104d
since Mar 24, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$-1
Vol: $0
Month
$-56
Vol: $1,676
All Time
$-235
Vol: $17,873

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
89%
229W / 27L events
Realized PnL
$343
Win Rate
92%
235W / 20L
Profit Factor
21.08x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-1

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $37 (12% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April $17
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March$10
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 8?$10
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 8?$10
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on April$9
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 28?$9
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April $7
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12?$7
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 10?$7
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 29?$6

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$-4
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET$-2
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 3?$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$-1
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$-1
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.489
Sortino
0.763
HHI
39
Diversified
EV per $1
$3.884
Kelly %
89.2%
Half-Kelly
44.6%
Top-1 market
1.9%
Top-5 markets
6.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
9.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
5.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
10.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.3h
between trades
Night Trading
10%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.63
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 652s — typical for humanSize CV 0.63 — diverse, typical for human10% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.78 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.3
Single entry
<=1
341 entries
<=2
411 entries
<=5
437 entries
<=10
437 entries
<=20
437 entries
<=50
437 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)27.3%
Mid (20-55c)43.3%
High (>55c)29.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 62.1%

Other$120
Seoul$42
Warsaw$19
Istanbul$16
London$15
Chicago$12
Moscow$11
Sao Paulo$11
Madrid$9
Munich$8
Hong Kong$6
Taipei$5
Paris$5
Cape Town$4
Toronto$4
San Francisco$4
Tokyo$3
Milan$2

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
378

Single bracket

<=1
331 brackets
<=2
367 brackets
<=3
377 brackets
<=4
378 brackets
<=5
378 brackets
<=8
378 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/24/2026, 8:23:51 PM1 trades$10 min
3/24/2026, 8:31:33 PM1 trades$10 min
3/24/2026, 9:07:49 PM1 trades$10 min
3/24/2026, 9:32:59 PM1 trades$10 min
3/26/2026, 3:44:05 PM1 trades$10 min
3/26/2026, 8:14:07 PM1 trades$00 min
3/26/2026, 11:11:03 PM1 trades$10 min
3/26/2026, 11:32:51 PM1 trades$10 min
3/26/2026, 11:39:23 PM1 trades$10 min
3/26/2026, 11:54:09 PM1 trades$10 min
3/27/2026, 7:22:29 PM1 trades$10 min
3/27/2026, 8:54:49 PM2 trades$21 min
3/27/2026, 9:01:51 PM1 trades$60 min
3/27/2026, 9:09:47 PM1 trades$10 min
3/27/2026, 10:55:11 PM1 trades$60 min
3/27/2026, 11:07:23 PM1 trades$10 min
3/28/2026, 7:46:34 PM3 trades$44 min
3/29/2026, 7:38:08 AM1 trades$10 min
3/29/2026, 3:12:56 PM3 trades$46 min
3/29/2026, 3:25:12 PM1 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-27
04-04
04-11
04-22
04-29
05-06
06-17

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
53.3% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
27.7% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event