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@Exhausted-Greatgrandfather

#2,395,29397

0x370f63ffd0b802f2ebb79b50998aeedc1602eaf5

57d· 661 markets · 762 tradesVol: $16,1972026-05-16T11:39
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

97
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 96%20/20
Profit Factor 34.55x15/15
Sharpe 0.64712/15
Sortino 7657.77610/10
EV $+96.08310/10
HHI 3910/10
Profit Days 98%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Exhausted-Greatgrandfather is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having placed 762 trades across 407 markets over 48 days. Despite a high volume of $16,197, their net profit and loss stands at a negative $179.74, placing them at rank #2,395,293 on the global PnL leaderboard. Their smart score of 97/100 highlights elite analytical skills, although their current portfolio value is zero.

This trader specializes primarily in weather markets, which constitute 61% of their activity, indicating a focused market preference. Their trading style is contrarian and sniper-like, emphasizing precision and timing, supported by a 95.1% win rate and a strong profit factor of 52.55. Exhausted-Greatgrandfather tends to hold positions briefly, as suggested by a maximum drawdown duration of zero days, and sells 31% of the time, reflecting a balanced risk profile with cool-headed decision-making.

Exhausted-Greatgrandfather’s key strengths include consistency and a strong ability to maintain win streaks, backed by badges such as Consistent and Win Streak. However, their negative net PnL despite high accuracy may indicate small profit margins or transaction costs impacting overall returns. The low bot score suggests manual trading, which, combined with a moderate Sharpe ratio of 0.65, points to room for improvement in risk-adjusted returns on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 96%
Contrarian
61% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
45 wins in a row
Consistent
39/40 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

6
🌤️ WEATHER#251,234$-124Vol: $12,801
CRYPTO#1,209,088$-32Vol: $2,392
🏛️ POLITICS#1,331,012$-27Vol: $720
SPORTS#308,972$4Vol: $255
🎭 CULTURE#387,096$-0Vol: $15
📢 MENTIONS#75,227$-1Vol: $14

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-180
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$16,197
Total Redeem
$261
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
661
total markets
Trades
523B / 239S
Daily Volume
$18
Account Age
57d
since Mar 24, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$-1
Vol: $15
Month
$-17
Vol: $1,203
All Time
$-180
Vol: $16,197

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
96%
220W / 9L events
Realized PnL
$309
Win Rate
95%
235W / 12L
Profit Factor
52.55x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-0

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $37 (12.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April $17
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March$10
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 8?$10
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 8?$10
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on April$9
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 28?$9
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April $7
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 10?$7
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 29?$6
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 10?$5

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$-1
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 1?$-0
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 12?$-0
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 2?$-0
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 12?$-0
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 1?$-0
Grand Prix Hassan II: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.647
Sortino
inf
HHI
39
Diversified
EV per $1
$96.082
Kelly %
94.0%
Half-Kelly
47.0%
Top-1 market
1.7%
Top-5 markets
6.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
16.6
Active
Markets / Day
8.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
13.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.2h
between trades
Night Trading
12%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.55
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
MEDIUM
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 806s — typical for humanSize CV 0.55 — diverse, typical for human12% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.77 — human randomness17 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.3
Single entry
<=1
323 entries
<=2
384 entries
<=5
407 entries
<=10
407 entries
<=20
407 entries
<=50
407 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)26.2%
Mid (20-55c)44%
High (>55c)29.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 61.4%

Other$110
Seoul$42
Warsaw$19
Istanbul$16
London$16
Chicago$12
Moscow$11
Sao Paulo$11
Madrid$9
Paris$6
Hong Kong$6
Taipei$5
Cape Town$4
Toronto$4
San Francisco$4
Tokyo$3
Milan$2
New York City$2

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
346

Single bracket

<=1
298 brackets
<=2
334 brackets
<=3
345 brackets
<=4
346 brackets
<=5
346 brackets
<=8
346 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/24/2026, 8:23:51 PM1 trades$10 min
3/24/2026, 8:31:33 PM1 trades$10 min
3/24/2026, 9:07:49 PM1 trades$10 min
3/24/2026, 9:32:59 PM1 trades$10 min
3/26/2026, 3:44:05 PM1 trades$10 min
3/26/2026, 8:14:07 PM1 trades$00 min
3/26/2026, 11:11:03 PM1 trades$10 min
3/26/2026, 11:32:51 PM1 trades$10 min
3/26/2026, 11:39:23 PM1 trades$10 min
3/26/2026, 11:54:09 PM1 trades$10 min
3/27/2026, 7:22:29 PM1 trades$10 min
3/27/2026, 8:54:49 PM2 trades$21 min
3/27/2026, 9:01:51 PM1 trades$60 min
3/27/2026, 9:09:47 PM1 trades$10 min
3/27/2026, 10:55:11 PM1 trades$60 min
3/27/2026, 11:07:23 PM1 trades$10 min
3/28/2026, 7:46:34 PM3 trades$44 min
3/29/2026, 7:38:08 AM1 trades$10 min
3/29/2026, 3:12:56 PM3 trades$46 min
3/29/2026, 3:25:12 PM1 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-24
04-02
04-08
04-14
04-24
04-30
05-06

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
60.9% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
31.4% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event