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Extra-Large-Spill

@Extra-Large-Spill

#2,35235

0x4526964246242015bfa78c294033565be6797a45

736d· 1059 markets · 4580 tradesVol: $2,062,0842026-06-27T18:32
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

35
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 97%20/20
Profit Factor 0.40x0/15
HHI 13410/10
Profit Days 49%5/10
DD/Peak 3174%0/10

Summary

Extra-Large-Spill is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #2352 globally by net PnL with $71,564.05 earned over 894 days. They have executed 4,580 trades across 467 markets, accumulating over $2 million in total volume. Despite a below-average Smart Score of 35/100 and a negative Sharpe Ratio of -0.24, their portfolio value shows consistent upward growth, reflecting a positive equity trend.

The trader's style favors frequent engagement with a 55.1% win rate, though their profit factor of 0.40 suggests that losses outweigh gains on average. Extra-Large-Spill appears to take moderate risks with a low sell percentage of 11% and no exposure to weather markets. Their badges, including Sniper and DCA Master, imply a focus on precise entries and dollar-cost averaging strategies, while their zero max drawdown duration indicates effective risk management during downturns.

Extra-Large-Spill’s strengths lie in steady equity growth and diversified market participation, supported by a large volume and number of trades. However, the below-average Smart and Bot Scores combined with a negative Sharpe Ratio highlight potential concerns about risk-adjusted returns and strategy consistency. Traders monitoring Polymarket should note these factors when assessing Extra-Large-Spill’s performance and approach.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 97%
Profitable
PnL $+71,564
DCA Master
avg 8.8 entries/market
Win Streak
59 wins in a row
Whale
$999,857
High Roller
$1,118/day

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#2,596$15,737Vol: $843,771
📢 MENTIONS#50$39,485Vol: $531,185
🎭 CULTURE#1,098$7,109Vol: $247,441
₿ CRYPTO#23,973$1,466Vol: $194,526
💰 FINANCE#2,763$1,609Vol: $65,363
⚽ SPORTS#10,106$3,968Vol: $60,384
📈 ECONOMICS#3,059$856Vol: $26,814
💻 TECH#1,379$928Vol: $7,370
🌤️ WEATHER#3,880$254Vol: $4,850

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$71,564
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,062,084
Total Redeem
$646,227
Portfolio
$50,234
Predictions
1059
total markets
Trades
4089B / 491S
Daily Volume
$1,118
Account Age
736d
since Jul 11, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-8
Vol: $4,116
Week
$1,593
Vol: $61,507
Month
$11,385
Vol: $305,724
All Time
$71,564
Vol: $2,062,084

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
98%
118W / 3L events
Realized PnL
$107,832
Win Rate
55%
234W / 191L
Profit Factor
0.4x
Avg Win
$465
Avg Loss
$-1,438

Top Winners

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$20,290
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?$10,049
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?$9,653
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?$4,965
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy $4,955
US strikes Iraq by March 7?$4,004
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?$3,068
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026?$2,619
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$2,348
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th$2,323

Top Losers

Israel strike on Iran on June 24?$-33,109
Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference?$-14,229
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?$-10,472
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?$-9,127
Will Trump say "Border" 20 or more times during Georgia rally on $-7,408
Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during Pennsylvania rally$-7,378
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?$-5,700
Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during Pennsylvania rally$-5,003
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?$-4,092
Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?$-4,079

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.243
Sortino
-0.232
HHI
134
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.176
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.2%
Top-5 markets
19.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
6.9
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
22:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
45.2m
between trades
Night Trading
33%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.25
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.5

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 172s — typical for humanSize CV 3.25 — diverse, typical for human33% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.95 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 22:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
8.8
Active DCA
<=1
85 entries
<=2
142 entries
<=5
232 entries
<=10
339 entries
<=20
421 entries
<=50
462 entries
>50
5 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)6.1%
Mid (20-55c)15.1%
High (>55c)78.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 44.3%

Miami$0
Taipei$-1,983
Other$-164,007

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.3
Events covered
203

Moderate coverage

<=1
121 brackets
<=2
151 brackets
<=3
169 brackets
<=4
176 brackets
<=5
187 brackets
<=8
199 brackets
>8
4 brackets

Sessions

#12
8/30/2024, 6:41:11 PM1 trades$100 min
8/30/2024, 8:38:27 PM1 trades$80 min
8/31/2024, 2:52:26 AM1 trades$120 min
8/31/2024, 4:33:53 AM3 trades$22 min
8/31/2024, 4:42:35 AM6 trades$103 min
8/31/2024, 6:11:15 AM1 trades$60 min
8/31/2024, 6:59:03 AM1 trades$160 min
8/31/2024, 8:21:46 AM1 trades$20 min
8/31/2024, 8:34:34 AM3 trades$58 min
8/31/2024, 8:56:42 AM1 trades$30 min
8/31/2024, 9:02:15 AM2 trades$52 min
8/31/2024, 9:10:15 AM1 trades$40 min
8/31/2024, 9:35:40 AM1 trades$40 min
8/31/2024, 9:47:36 AM1 trades$40 min
8/31/2024, 2:43:05 PM1 trades$1320 min
8/31/2024, 7:49:27 PM1 trades$170 min
9/1/2024, 2:31:04 AM1 trades$40 min
9/1/2024, 2:47:50 AM1 trades$200 min
9/1/2024, 3:09:25 AM1 trades$150 min
9/1/2024, 3:16:37 AM4 trades$72 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
10-14
11-03
02-10
03-12
05-08

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
10.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 8.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.3 br/event