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Extra-Large-Spill

@Extra-Large-Spill

#2,44834

0x4526964246242015bfa78c294033565be6797a45

678d· 1000 markets · 4311 tradesVol: $1,752,7192026-05-16T11:42
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

34
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 98%20/20
Profit Factor 0.35x0/15
HHI 14210/10
Profit Days 45%4/10
DD/Peak 2624%0/10

Summary

Extra-Large-Spill is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #2448 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 894 days, they have executed 4,311 trades across 455 markets, generating a net PnL of $59,780.17 on a total volume of $1.75 million. Despite this positive absolute return, their Smart Score is below average at 34/100, and their portfolio value stands at $5,713.58, indicating moderate capital deployment relative to their trading activity.

The trader’s style appears diversified, engaging in a broad range of markets but showing no participation in weather-related markets. With a win rate of 54.4% and a profit factor of 0.35, Extra-Large-Spill’s approach seems to prioritize frequent but lower-margin trades. Their low sell percentage of 10% and the presence of DCA (dollar-cost averaging) badges suggest a strategy that favors incremental position building over aggressive exits. The Sharpe ratio of -0.29 and a zero-day max drawdown duration reflect some volatility and risk exposure, though the equity trend is upward.

Extra-Large-Spill’s strengths lie in consistent activity and an upward equity trajectory, supported by badges like Sniper and Win Streak, which indicate precise timing and short-term success. However, the below-average Smart Score, negative Sharpe ratio, and low profit factor raise concerns about risk-adjusted returns and efficiency. Polymarket traders observing Extra-Large-Spill should note the balance between steady gains and potential exposure to volatility.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 98%
Profitable
PnL $+59,780
DCA Master
avg 8.5 entries/market
Win Streak
59 wins in a row
Whale
$875,175

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#3,999$8,366Vol: $657,600
📢 MENTIONS#46$39,215Vol: $522,865
🎭 CULTURE#1,038$7,109Vol: $247,441
CRYPTO#30,322$842Vol: $139,526
💰 FINANCE#2,560$1,579Vol: $61,363
SPORTS#36,528$871Vol: $37,208
📈 ECONOMICS#3,686$565Vol: $15,436
💻 TECH#1,269$928Vol: $7,370
🌤️ WEATHER#3,440$254Vol: $4,850

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$59,780
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,752,719
Total Redeem
$605,690
Portfolio
$5,714
Predictions
1000
total markets
Trades
3872B / 439S
Daily Volume
$979
Account Age
678d
since Jul 11, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-30
Vol: $0
Week
$-21
Vol: $2,000
Month
$288
Vol: $18,262
All Time
$59,780
Vol: $1,752,719

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
96%
108W / 4L events
Realized PnL
$100,929
Win Rate
54%
231W / 194L
Profit Factor
0.35x
Avg Win
$342
Avg Loss
$-1,162

Top Winners

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?$10,049
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?$9,653
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy $4,955
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?$4,148
US strikes Iraq by March 7?$4,004
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?$3,068
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026?$2,619
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th$2,323
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?$1,917
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?$1,766

Top Losers

Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference?$-14,229
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?$-10,472
Will Trump say "Border" 20 or more times during Georgia rally on $-7,408
Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during Pennsylvania rally$-7,378
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?$-5,700
Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during Pennsylvania rally$-5,003
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?$-4,092
Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?$-4,079
Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during Macon, GA rally?$-3,758
Will Trump say "border" 20 or more times during Michigan rally on$-3,633

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.288
Sortino
-0.280
HHI
142
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.171
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.9%
Top-5 markets
20.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
6.9
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
0:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
43.4m
between trades
Night Trading
32%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.04
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 176s — typical for humanSize CV 3.04 — diverse, typical for human32% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.92 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 0:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
8.5
Active DCA
<=1
82 entries
<=2
142 entries
<=5
231 entries
<=10
333 entries
<=20
411 entries
<=50
451 entries
>50
4 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)4.8%
Mid (20-55c)13.4%
High (>55c)81.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 46%

Taipei$1,137
Atlanta$9
Other$-147,751

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.4
Events covered
192

Moderate coverage

<=1
115 brackets
<=2
142 brackets
<=3
159 brackets
<=4
164 brackets
<=5
175 brackets
<=8
187 brackets
>8
5 brackets

Sessions

#12
8/22/2024, 6:54:45 AM2 trades$4000 min
8/29/2024, 7:40:59 AM1 trades$1100 min
8/29/2024, 3:39:30 PM1 trades$500 min
8/29/2024, 8:40:24 PM1 trades$1380 min
8/29/2024, 11:31:15 PM1 trades$1250 min
8/29/2024, 11:46:19 PM1 trades$10 min
8/30/2024, 12:54:27 AM2 trades$85 min
8/30/2024, 4:19:33 AM1 trades$1480 min
8/30/2024, 6:41:11 PM1 trades$100 min
8/30/2024, 8:38:27 PM1 trades$80 min
8/31/2024, 2:52:26 AM1 trades$120 min
8/31/2024, 4:33:53 AM3 trades$22 min
8/31/2024, 4:42:35 AM6 trades$103 min
8/31/2024, 6:11:15 AM1 trades$60 min
8/31/2024, 6:59:03 AM1 trades$160 min
8/31/2024, 8:21:46 AM1 trades$20 min
8/31/2024, 8:34:34 AM3 trades$58 min
8/31/2024, 8:56:42 AM1 trades$30 min
8/31/2024, 9:02:15 AM2 trades$52 min
8/31/2024, 9:10:15 AM1 trades$40 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
10-01
10-24
06-24
02-14
03-16

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
10.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 8.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.4 br/event