Polydata

@Fabulous-Estimate

#2,851,15779

0x3fd3caaf689040cd9c45975b899960b99ca692f9

7d· 424 markets · 642 tradesVol: $64,7462026-06-21T13:09
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

79
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 14%0/20
Profit Factor 7.11x15/15
Sharpe 0.94015/15
Sortino 688582.03910/10
EV $+0.1849/10
HHI 7310/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Fabulous-Estimate is a highly active trader on Polymarket, having executed 642 trades across 392 markets in just 7 days. Despite a net loss of $3,023.49 and a global PnL rank of #2,851,157, the trader maintains a very good Smart Score of 79/100 and a strong profit factor of 7.11. Their portfolio value currently stands at zero, indicating recent liquidation or full cash-out, while their Sharpe Ratio of 0.94 suggests moderate risk-adjusted returns.

The trading style of Fabulous-Estimate appears automated, supported by a Bot Score of 75/100 and the presence of the "Bot" badge. They exhibit a high win rate of 91.2% and a low sell percentage of 4%, consistent with the "Diamond Hands" badge that implies a buy-and-hold approach. Their activity spans diverse markets with no exposure to weather-related contracts, and their equity trend is upward, indicating growing confidence in their positions over a short period.

Fabulous-Estimate’s strengths include a consistent winning record and disciplined trading backed by automation, enabling efficient execution and strong profit factor despite an overall net loss. However, the zero portfolio value and relatively brief activity window raise concerns about sustainability and capital management. The combination of high volume and short trading duration suggests a strategy that may benefit from further refinement to improve net profitability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Diamond Hands
4% sell
Bot
Score 75/100
Win Streak
122 wins in a row
Consistent
8/8 days
High Roller
$4,829/day

Categories

1
CRYPTO#1,581,538$-3,023Vol: $64,746

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-3,023
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$64,746
Total Redeem
$35,324
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
424
total markets
Trades
614B / 28S
Daily Volume
$4,829
Account Age
7d
since Jun 14, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-6
Vol: $5,502
Week
$-2,639
Vol: $5,502
Month
$-3,023
Vol: $64,746
All Time
$-3,023
Vol: $64,746

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
14%
10W / 62L events
Realized PnL
$59
Win Rate
91%
302W / 29L
Profit Factor
7.11x
Avg Win
$21
Avg Loss
$-31

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $931 (16.9% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$465
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$277
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$189
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$184
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET$151
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$122
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$114
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$113
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$58
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$57

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET$-79
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$-48
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$-46
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$-45
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET$-44
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$-43
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$-41
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$-40
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$-39
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$-39

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.940
Sortino
inf
HHI
73
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.184
Kelly %
77.8%
Half-Kelly
38.9%
Top-1 market
2.9%
Top-5 markets
14%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
89.8
Very active
Markets / Day
54.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
17.8m
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.99
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.1

Bot Detection

#6
75
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 300s — typical for humanSize CV 0.99 — diverse, typical for human25% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.23 — human randomness90 trades/day — mass trading55 markets/day — mass coverage311 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.6
Single entry
<=1
264 entries
<=2
352 entries
<=5
385 entries
<=10
390 entries
<=20
392 entries
<=50
392 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.3%
Mid (20-55c)10.9%
High (>55c)88.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 53.4%

Other$5,509

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
392

Single bracket

<=1
392 brackets
<=2
392 brackets
<=3
392 brackets
<=4
392 brackets
<=5
392 brackets
<=8
392 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
6/14/2026, 9:20:06 AM5 trades$1785 min
6/14/2026, 9:45:06 AM1 trades$30 min
6/14/2026, 12:35:06 PM1 trades$00 min
6/14/2026, 12:45:06 PM2 trades$115 min
6/14/2026, 2:35:06 PM1 trades$450 min
6/14/2026, 5:40:06 PM1 trades$220 min
6/14/2026, 7:15:07 PM2 trades$575 min
6/14/2026, 9:20:06 PM12 trades$37125 min
6/14/2026, 9:50:10 PM2 trades$185 min
6/14/2026, 10:00:10 PM1 trades$390 min
6/15/2026, 9:35:06 AM2 trades$80 min
6/15/2026, 7:20:07 PM1 trades$290 min
6/15/2026, 8:55:06 PM1 trades$250 min
6/15/2026, 9:15:06 PM1 trades$300 min
6/15/2026, 9:30:06 PM1 trades$280 min
6/15/2026, 9:45:06 PM1 trades$300 min
6/15/2026, 10:00:07 PM1 trades$300 min
6/15/2026, 10:25:06 PM3 trades$9010 min
6/15/2026, 11:05:06 PM1 trades$300 min
6/15/2026, 11:30:06 PM2 trades$300 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
06-14
06-15
06-16
06-17
06-18
06-19
06-20
06-21

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
4.4% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event