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@Fake-Supply

#3,016,34140

0x0d75e1d093ae1eb0b215dc8a17c1da1d76f3396f

153d· 261 markets · 2866 tradesVol: $8,283,2512026-07-18T03:17
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

40
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 98%20/20
Profit Factor 0.66x0/15
HHI 6510/10
Profit Days 95%10/10
DD/Peak 153%0/10

Summary

Fake-Supply is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 2,866 trades across 251 markets over 103 days. Despite a high win rate of 84.4%, the trader is ranked low at #3,016,341 on the global PnL leaderboard and currently shows a net loss of $9,474.46. Their overall portfolio value is zero, and the equity trend is downward, indicating recent performance struggles. The Smart Score and Bot Score are below average, suggesting mixed effectiveness in their trading approach.

The trading style of Fake-Supply appears to favor frequent trades and a high sell percentage of 74%, indicating a tendency to exit positions quickly. They avoid weather markets entirely and maintain a relatively balanced approach between bot-assisted and manual inputs. Despite a strong win rate, the low profit factor of 0.12 and a negative Sharpe ratio of -0.05 point to low profitability and poor risk-adjusted returns. The trader demonstrates a semi-bot strategy with some hedging, aiming to capitalize on consistent small wins rather than large gains.

Fake-Supply’s key strength is the ability to maintain a high win rate and consistent trading volume, reflected in badges like Sniper and Consistent. However, the significant net losses and declining equity suggest risks in position sizing or market selection. The absence of drawdown duration may indicate quick recovery from losses, but the overall downward portfolio trend raises concerns about long-term sustainability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 98%
Hedger
avg 2.5 brackets/event
Win Streak
65 wins in a row
Whale
$1,831,080
Consistent
94/99 days
High Roller
$17,777/day

Categories

3
🏛️ POLITICS#1,613,295$-2,400Vol: $4,800,000
CRYPTO#1,647,828$-7,101Vol: $3,479,267
💰 FINANCE#34,567$26Vol: $3,984

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-9,474
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$8,283,251
Total Redeem
$204,146
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
261
total markets
Trades
740B / 2126S
Daily Volume
$17,777
Account Age
153d
since Feb 19, 2026

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
95%
99W / 5L events
Realized PnL
$12,959
Win Rate
84%
206W / 38L
Profit Factor
0.12x
Avg Win
$57
Avg Loss
$-2,661

Top Winners

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24?$1,359
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?$1,180
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18?$1,062
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11?$519
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12?$432
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22?$283
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15?$259
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 21?$244
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25?$225
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10?$222

Top Losers

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5?$-10,274
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22?$-8,774
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 19?$-7,867
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 5?$-6,852
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2?$-6,523
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13?$-5,872
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 14?$-5,271
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27?$-4,596
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 6?$-4,302
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 16?$-4,029

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.051
Sortino
-0.014
HHI
65
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.339
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
1.4%
Top-5 markets
6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
28.2
Active
Markets / Day
2.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
3:00 UTC
Median Gap
40s
between trades
Avg Gap
47.0m
between trades
Night Trading
40%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.39
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.0

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 40s — typical for humanSize CV 1.39 — diverse, typical for human40% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.91 — human randomness28 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 3:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.9
Moderate DCA
<=1
97 entries
<=2
157 entries
<=5
219 entries
<=10
242 entries
<=20
250 entries
<=50
251 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.1%
Mid (20-55c)0%
High (>55c)99.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 100%

Other$-89,337

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.5
Events covered
101

Moderate coverage

<=1
18 brackets
<=2
52 brackets
<=3
86 brackets
<=4
98 brackets
<=5
101 brackets
<=8
101 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/20/2026, 2:07:34 AM1 trades$2000 min
2/20/2026, 1:44:44 PM1 trades$1980 min
2/25/2026, 2:25:10 PM1 trades$1880 min
2/26/2026, 4:13:10 AM1 trades$3490 min
2/26/2026, 10:08:20 AM1 trades$2,6790 min
2/26/2026, 10:13:48 AM1 trades$1,5840 min
2/26/2026, 10:19:44 AM4 trades$2,9373 min
2/26/2026, 10:40:56 AM5 trades$1,9717 min
2/26/2026, 11:50:12 AM1 trades$6550 min
2/26/2026, 2:51:38 PM1 trades$1100 min
2/26/2026, 3:44:22 PM1 trades$4,6850 min
2/26/2026, 8:34:54 PM1 trades$3,5200 min
2/26/2026, 11:45:28 PM1 trades$20 min
2/26/2026, 11:51:44 PM28 trades$1,39312 min
2/27/2026, 12:09:36 AM10 trades$1440 min
2/27/2026, 12:15:14 AM10 trades$1420 min
2/27/2026, 12:22:52 AM10 trades$1273 min
2/27/2026, 12:31:00 AM6 trades$840 min
2/27/2026, 3:24:52 AM1 trades$10,0000 min
2/27/2026, 11:36:55 AM5 trades$10,2096 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-19
03-09
03-27
04-12
04-28
05-14
05-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
74.2% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.5 br/event