Polydata
False-Hop

@False-Hop

#2,801,92182

0xc853b675bc673dc708d4b7e7c050efb486ee9d37

818d· 429 markets · 1282 tradesVol: $312,0422026-06-08T13:37
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

82
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 77%20/20
Profit Factor 2.73x15/15
Sharpe 0.2324/15
Sortino 0.2452/10
EV $+1.42410/10
HHI 13110/10
Profit Days 88%10/10
DD/Peak 16%10/10

Summary

False-Hop is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 1,282 trades executed over 817 days. Despite a high win rate of 95.3% and a strong profit factor of 14.14, their overall net PnL stands at -$11,198.20, placing them at rank #2,801,921 on the global leaderboard. Their portfolio value remains stable at $2,433.77, supported by a low max drawdown duration of zero days and a Sharpe ratio of 0.23, indicating modest risk-adjusted returns.

False-Hop’s trading style is characterized by a focus on a broad range of markets, having traded in 404 different markets, with no particular emphasis on weather markets. The trader’s low sell percentage of 8% and badges such as “Diamond Hands” and “Win Streak” suggest a preference for holding positions and capitalizing on sustained trends. Their Smart Score of 82/100 indicates very good decision-making, while the relatively low Bot Score (25/100) suggests they trade manually with quick interface responses. The stable equity trend points to consistent but cautious trading behavior.

The primary strength of False-Hop lies in their high consistency and ability to maintain winning trades, as reflected in their 95.3% win rate and strong profit factor. However, the negative net PnL despite these metrics raises concerns about position sizing or market selection. Their low Sharpe ratio and flat equity curve imply limited upside volatility but also restrained gains. False-Hop may benefit from reviewing trade sizing or reducing exposure to less profitable markets to improve overall profitability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 77%
Diamond Hands
8% sell
Win Streak
73 wins in a row
Whale
$106,633
Consistent
101/115 days
Cool Head
DD 16%

Categories

3
SPORTS#1,684,537$-2,951Vol: $157,821
🏛️ POLITICS#1,579,753$-7,425Vol: $118,017
🎭 CULTURE#788,690$-1,168Vol: $34,997

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-11,198
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$312,042
Total Redeem
$72,339
Portfolio
$2,434
Predictions
429
total markets
Trades
1175B / 107S
Daily Volume
$130
Account Age
818d
since Mar 12, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-13
Vol: $0
Week
$-13
Vol: $2,990
Month
$-3,235
Vol: $29,287
All Time
$-11,198
Vol: $312,042

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
83%
209W / 44L events
Realized PnL
$30,385
Win Rate
95%
222W / 11L
Profit Factor
14.14x
Avg Win
$129
Avg Loss
$-184

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $6,420 (24.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

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Will FC Porto win Group A at the FIFA Club World Cup?$1,239
Will Chelsea win Group D at the FIFA Club World Cup?$1,216
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland$1,171
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open?$1,137
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24?$775
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th$686
Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy A$614

Top Losers

Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in t$-1,203
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18?$-357
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's $-137
Will Andrey Esipenko vs. Javokhir Sindarov end in a draw?$-103
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?$-48
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential elect$-47
Will the United States of America win the gold medal for Winter O$-47
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Pacific Division?$-40
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?$-26
Counter-Strike: Reign Above vs Marsborne - Map 1 Winner$-16

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.232
Sortino
0.244
HHI
131
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.424
Kelly %
87.2%
Half-Kelly
43.6%
Top-1 market
5.3%
Top-5 markets
16.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
1.6
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
8:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.1h
between trades
Night Trading
2%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.76
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 296s — typical for humanSize CV 1.77 — diverse, typical for human2% at night — normal sleep pattern20/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.68 — semi-mechanical334 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 8:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.9
Moderate DCA
<=1
232 entries
<=2
297 entries
<=5
353 entries
<=10
381 entries
<=20
393 entries
<=50
402 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)10.6%
Mid (20-55c)47.5%
High (>55c)42%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 12.8%

Other$25,071
Austin$332
Atlanta$256
Toronto$228
Paris$222
Madrid$218
Shanghai$174
Munich$133
Miami$131
Dallas$46
Milan$-173

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
330

Single bracket

<=1
284 brackets
<=2
314 brackets
<=3
325 brackets
<=4
327 brackets
<=5
328 brackets
<=8
330 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/12/2024, 12:54:18 PM1 trades$110 min
3/23/2024, 11:29:57 PM1 trades$170 min
3/26/2024, 9:55:05 AM1 trades$2330 min
4/3/2024, 11:50:09 AM1 trades$100 min
4/6/2024, 1:39:30 PM1 trades$60 min
4/6/2024, 1:45:38 PM1 trades$1140 min
4/6/2024, 2:17:32 PM1 trades$1200 min
4/6/2024, 2:30:22 PM1 trades$2400 min
4/6/2024, 3:29:19 PM1 trades$400 min
4/6/2024, 6:49:53 PM1 trades$80 min
5/4/2025, 1:48:27 PM4 trades$1021 min
5/16/2025, 9:12:32 AM1 trades$8070 min
5/16/2025, 11:21:10 AM1 trades$1550 min
5/19/2025, 9:47:31 AM1 trades$1630 min
5/19/2025, 3:04:06 PM1 trades$1790 min
5/19/2025, 5:09:28 PM1 trades$4400 min
5/19/2025, 5:29:44 PM1 trades$550 min
5/20/2025, 7:39:21 PM1 trades$1,0960 min
5/24/2025, 7:02:05 AM4 trades$6843 min
5/24/2025, 7:47:49 AM1 trades$4300 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
07-09
12-27
03-31
04-30
05-26
07-20

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
8.3% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event