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@Fearless-Arithmetic

#2,97759

0xf6f1282b3e2ae0e1560d16be3ea9ccd079897da3

132d· 5023 markets · 2492 tradesVol: $1,819,3372026-06-27T17:32
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

59
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 64%17/20
Profit Factor 0.35x0/15
Sharpe 0.2425/15
Sortino 2.32110/10
HHI 10027/10
Profit Days 80%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Fearless-Arithmetic is an experienced and moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #2977 globally by net profit and boasting a net PnL of $55,184 over nearly a year of trading. With 2,492 trades across 1,255 markets and a total volume exceeding $1.8 million, this trader demonstrates consistent engagement. Their portfolio value remains modest at $72.17, supported by a steady equity trend and a relatively low Sharpe ratio of 0.24, indicating limited risk-adjusted returns.

This trader’s strategy appears focused on a high-frequency, low-risk style, reflected in a remarkable 95.2% win rate but a low profit factor of 0.35, suggesting small gains per trade. Fearless-Arithmetic shows a preference for diverse markets but only minimal exposure to weather markets (4%), with a very low sell percentage (1%) indicating a tendency to hold positions rather than actively exit. Their smart score and bot score imply a combination of manual and automated trading, with timing likely optimized for quick, incremental profits.

The main strengths of Fearless-Arithmetic lie in their consistent execution and strong win rate, attributes highlighted by badges such as "Sniper" and "Diamond Hands." However, the low profit factor and flat equity trend suggest limited upside potential and possibly conservative risk-taking. The minimal drawdown duration indicates disciplined loss management, but the relatively low portfolio value and Sharpe ratio may limit scalability and resilience during volatile market conditions.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 64%
Profitable
PnL $+55,184
Diamond Hands
1% sell
Win Streak
665 wins in a row
Whale
$288,485
Consistent
88/110 days
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

9
SPORTS#859$72,492Vol: $1,059,177
CRYPTO#1,611,069$-32,567Vol: $307,635
🌤️ WEATHER#458$3,910Vol: $98,686
📢 MENTIONS#990$1,344Vol: $49,338
💰 FINANCE#1,853$2,550Vol: $39,864
🎭 CULTURE#2,441$2,702Vol: $31,407
🏛️ POLITICS#54,865$132Vol: $14,769
📈 ECONOMICS#4,292$492Vol: $5,017
💻 TECH#24,537$4Vol: $323

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$55,184
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,819,337
Total Redeem
$235,327
Portfolio
$72
Predictions
5023
total markets
Trades
2468B / 24S
Daily Volume
$831
Account Age
132d
since Feb 21, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$46
Vol: $774
Week
$3,746
Vol: $129,536
Month
$11,537
Vol: $310,771
All Time
$55,184
Vol: $1,819,337

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
79%
227W / 61L events
Realized PnL
$102,326
Win Rate
95%
1115W / 56L
Profit Factor
0.35x
Avg Win
$18
Avg Loss
$-1,062

Top Winners

Spread: Brazil (-1.5)$6,113
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Honduras?$2,382
Will Gambia win on 2026-05-29?$1,589
Cvetkovic vs. Sanon: Match O/U 22.5$1,012
Anastasija Cvetkovic vs. Nehira Sanon: Total Sets O/U 2.5$956
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29?$912
Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 $889
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in May?$420
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$392
Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Cerundolo$334

Top Losers

Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on April 26?$-7,699
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on April 27?$-7,699
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on April 27?$-7,699
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 30?$-7,699
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?$-7,532
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 2?$-6,813
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste$-3,469
CA River Plate vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 2.5$-791
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana$-634
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5$-575

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.242
Sortino
2.321
HHI
1002
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.141
Kelly %
45.8%
Half-Kelly
22.9%
Top-1 market
30.4%
Top-5 markets
41.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
20.1
Active
Markets / Day
10.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
43.1m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
10.50
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.0

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 298s — typical for humanSize CV 10.50 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.90 — human randomness20 trades/day — suspiciously high10 markets/day — mass coverage398 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2
Single entry
<=1
883 entries
<=2
1078 entries
<=5
1205 entries
<=10
1238 entries
<=20
1249 entries
<=50
1251 entries
>50
4 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)12.3%
Mid (20-55c)2.2%
High (>55c)85.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 46.6%

Los Angeles$188
Seoul$169
Busan$110
Seattle$31
Moscow$15
Chicago$4
Atlanta$3
Tokyo$3
Chongqing$2
San Francisco$2
Shanghai$2
Chengdu$2
Lucknow$2
London$2
Kuala Lumpur$1
Austin$1
Houston$1
Buenos Aires$1

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
1047

Single bracket

<=1
910 brackets
<=2
1005 brackets
<=3
1032 brackets
<=4
1041 brackets
<=5
1045 brackets
<=8
1046 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/23/2026, 11:05:48 PM1 trades$1430 min
2/25/2026, 1:16:24 AM2 trades$5561 min
2/27/2026, 5:45:13 PM1 trades$20 min
2/27/2026, 8:54:35 PM1 trades$1000 min
2/27/2026, 10:25:35 PM2 trades$1001 min
2/27/2026, 10:53:13 PM2 trades$302 min
2/28/2026, 3:36:49 PM1 trades$00 min
2/28/2026, 4:39:19 PM1 trades$920 min
2/28/2026, 5:09:33 PM1 trades$220 min
2/28/2026, 5:20:47 PM1 trades$230 min
3/3/2026, 9:43:03 PM1 trades$10 min
3/3/2026, 9:49:51 PM1 trades$170 min
3/4/2026, 12:32:03 AM1 trades$180 min
3/4/2026, 1:40:39 AM3 trades$3372 min
3/9/2026, 2:00:25 PM2 trades$290 min
3/10/2026, 4:43:45 AM1 trades$1300 min
3/11/2026, 7:15:41 AM1 trades$1140 min
3/12/2026, 2:30:43 PM2 trades$140 min
3/12/2026, 2:43:29 PM1 trades$10 min
3/12/2026, 2:49:25 PM1 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
03-08
03-29
04-18
05-10
06-05
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
3.9% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
1% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event