Polydata

@Fearless-Arithmetic

#3,15858

0xf6f1282b3e2ae0e1560d16be3ea9ccd079897da3

134d· 5192 markets · 2354 tradesVol: $2,067,9822026-07-04T02:10
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

58
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 64%17/20
Profit Factor 0.44x0/15
Sharpe 0.2384/15
Sortino 1.10010/10
HHI 11157/10
Profit Days 82%10/10
DD/Peak 4%10/10

Summary

Fearless-Arithmetic is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #3158 globally with a net profit of $53,056.78 over 347 days. With 2,354 trades across 1,200 markets and a total volume exceeding $2 million, they demonstrate consistent engagement. Their portfolio value remains relatively stable at $312.09, reflecting a cautious capital allocation. The trader’s Smart Score of 58/100 indicates solid performance, though their Profit Factor of 0.44 suggests modest efficiency in converting trades to profits.

This trader favors a diversified approach, engaging in a broad range of markets but with minimal exposure to weather markets (2%) and rare selling activity (1%). Fearless-Arithmetic exhibits a high win rate of 96.1%, indicating a conservative and risk-averse style, likely prioritizing small, consistent gains over large, volatile bets. The flat equity trend and a low Sharpe Ratio of 0.24 further imply minimal fluctuation in returns. Their trading method appears to mix manual and automated elements, supported by a Bot Score of 45/100.

Fearless-Arithmetic’s key strength lies in their consistency and disciplined risk management, as shown by a zero-day max drawdown duration and a strong win streak. However, the low profit factor and Sharpe Ratio highlight potential challenges in scaling returns or capitalizing on higher-risk opportunities. While their stable strategy minimizes losses, it may limit upside potential, especially in fast-moving or high-volatility markets on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 64%
Profitable
PnL $+53,057
Diamond Hands
1% sell
Win Streak
573 wins in a row
Whale
$271,665
Consistent
96/117 days
Cool Head
DD 4%

Categories

9
SPORTS#948$70,311Vol: $1,305,670
CRYPTO#1,623,007$-32,566Vol: $307,809
🌤️ WEATHER#474$3,911Vol: $98,687
📢 MENTIONS#989$1,345Vol: $49,580
💰 FINANCE#1,845$2,576Vol: $40,524
🎭 CULTURE#2,455$2,704Vol: $31,645
🏛️ POLITICS#54,829$133Vol: $14,861
📈 ECONOMICS#4,350$492Vol: $5,017
💻 TECH#17,517$9Vol: $490

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$53,057
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,067,982
Total Redeem
$228,754
Portfolio
$312
Predictions
5192
total markets
Trades
2339B / 15S
Daily Volume
$783
Account Age
134d
since Feb 21, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$30
Vol: $2,318
Week
$-2,339
Vol: $248,178
Month
$-3,094
Vol: $240,759
All Time
$53,057
Vol: $2,067,982

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
78%
228W / 65L events
Realized PnL
$108,107
Win Rate
96%
1065W / 43L
Profit Factor
0.44x
Avg Win
$19
Avg Loss
$-1,078

Top Winners

Spread: Brazil (-1.5)$6,113
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Honduras?$2,382
Cvetkovic vs. Sanon: Match O/U 22.5$1,012
Anastasija Cvetkovic vs. Nehira Sanon: Total Sets O/U 2.5$956
Will Gambia win on 2026-05-29?$912
Will IR Iran win on 2026-05-29?$912
Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 $889
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5$630
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in May?$420
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$392

Top Losers

Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on April 27?$-7,699
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 30?$-7,699
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?$-7,532
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 2?$-6,813
Will Solana dip to $85 on May 22?$-5,499
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste$-3,469
CA River Plate vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 2.5$-791
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana$-634
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5$-575
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Caval$-574

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.238
Sortino
1.100
HHI
1115
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.101
Kelly %
56.8%
Half-Kelly
28.4%
Top-1 market
32.2%
Top-5 markets
43.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
18.1
Active
Markets / Day
9.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
7:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
47.5m
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
10.72
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.0

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 293s — typical for humanSize CV 10.73 — diverse, typical for human25% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.93 — human randomness18 trades/day — very active405 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 7:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.9
Single entry
<=1
854 entries
<=2
1030 entries
<=5
1155 entries
<=10
1186 entries
<=20
1194 entries
<=50
1196 entries
>50
4 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)13.2%
Mid (20-55c)2%
High (>55c)84.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 43.1%

San Francisco$632
Los Angeles$253
Seoul$141
Busan$110
Seattle$30
Moscow$15
Miami$15
Chicago$3
Chengdu$2
Atlanta$2
Tokyo$2
Austin$1
Houston$1
Shanghai$1
London$1
Wuhan$1
Munich$1
Milan$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
976

Single bracket

<=1
835 brackets
<=2
933 brackets
<=3
959 brackets
<=4
968 brackets
<=5
973 brackets
<=8
974 brackets
>8
2 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/23/2026, 11:05:48 PM1 trades$1430 min
2/25/2026, 1:16:24 AM2 trades$5561 min
2/27/2026, 5:45:13 PM1 trades$20 min
2/27/2026, 8:54:35 PM1 trades$1000 min
2/27/2026, 10:25:35 PM2 trades$1001 min
2/27/2026, 10:53:13 PM2 trades$302 min
2/28/2026, 3:36:49 PM1 trades$00 min
2/28/2026, 4:39:19 PM1 trades$920 min
2/28/2026, 5:09:33 PM1 trades$220 min
2/28/2026, 5:20:47 PM1 trades$230 min
3/3/2026, 9:43:03 PM1 trades$10 min
3/3/2026, 9:49:51 PM1 trades$170 min
3/4/2026, 12:32:03 AM1 trades$180 min
3/4/2026, 1:40:39 AM3 trades$3372 min
3/9/2026, 2:00:25 PM2 trades$290 min
3/10/2026, 4:43:45 AM1 trades$1300 min
3/12/2026, 2:30:43 PM2 trades$140 min
3/12/2026, 2:43:29 PM1 trades$10 min
3/12/2026, 2:49:25 PM1 trades$10 min
3/12/2026, 3:08:23 PM2 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
03-10
03-31
04-22
05-17
06-13
07-05
07-20

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
2.2% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.6% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event