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@Fernandoinfante

#73137

0xd7375270e4769d3cc31885773070a5f12d5bbe95

92d· 55 markets · 286 tradesVol: $5,921,1332026-05-16T02:16
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

37
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 27%0/20
Profit Factor 1.79x12/15
Sharpe 0.0952/15
Sortino 0.2633/10
EV $+0.41310/10
HHI 16174/10
Profit Days 38%2/10
DD/Peak 53%3/10

Summary

Fernandoinfante is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #731 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $216,982.53. Over 334 days, they completed 286 trades across 55 markets, generating a total volume of nearly $6 million. Despite a below-average Smart Score of 37/100, Fernandoinfante has maintained a stable equity trend with no portfolio value currently held.

Their trading style appears contrarian and high-risk, favoring a low win rate of 25.4% but compensating with a profit factor of 1.79, indicating that winning trades yield significantly higher returns than losses. The trader does not specialize in weather markets and rarely sells positions early, with a sell percentage of just 28%. Activity pacing is steady rather than aggressive, and the Sharpe ratio of 0.10 suggests limited risk-adjusted returns.

Fernandoinfante’s strengths lie in managing sizable volumes and capturing outsized profits despite frequent losses, reflecting a lottery player mentality. However, their low win rate and below-average Smart and Bot scores signal potential inconsistencies and vulnerability to market volatility. Traders observing Fernandoinfante on Polymarket should note their flat equity trend and cautious approach to portfolio exposure.

Badges

5
Profitable
PnL $+216,983
Lottery Player
55% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
93% entries <$0.50
Whale
$525,488
High Roller
$1,573/day

Categories

6
🏛️ POLITICS#141$331,006Vol: $4,188,691
📈 ECONOMICS#639,768$-115,423Vol: $1,002,146
⚽ SPORTS#1,638,458$-5,637Vol: $382,064
💰 FINANCE#340$12,553Vol: $251,870
🎭 CULTURE#771,764$-5,344Vol: $93,222
₿ CRYPTO#1,374,422$-172Vol: $3,140

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$216,983
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$5,921,133
Total Redeem
$947
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
55
total markets
Trades
207B / 79S
Daily Volume
$1,573
Account Age
92d
since Feb 18, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Month
$1
Vol: $0
All Time
$216,983
Vol: $5,921,133

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
35%
14W / 26L events
Realized PnL
$216,741
Win Rate
25%
14W / 41L
Profit Factor
1.79x
Avg Win
$35,001
Avg Loss
$-6,661

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $485,273 (223.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$462,431
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$12,567
Warriors vs. Kings$10,274
76ers vs. Celtics$1,490
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$897
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$837
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$733
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?$470
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$273
Trump out as President before 2027?$20

Top Losers

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$-115,426
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$-89,952
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$-20,110
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Mai$-5,910
GTA VI released before June 2026?$-5,339
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?$-5,280
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?$-5,092
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?$-3,544
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08?$-3,439
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?$-3,248

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.095
Sortino
0.263
HHI
1617
Moderate
EV per $1
$0.413
Kelly %
11.9%
Half-Kelly
5.9%
Top-1 market
25.6%
Top-5 markets
78.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
4.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.8
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.8h
between trades
Night Trading
38%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.82
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.5

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 126s — typical for humanSize CV 1.82 — diverse, typical for human38% at night — bot never sleeps21/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.75 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.8
Moderate DCA
<=1
27 entries
<=2
35 entries
<=5
48 entries
<=10
51 entries
<=20
53 entries
<=50
55 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)54.6%
Mid (20-55c)40.6%
High (>55c)4.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 82.1%

Other$223,598
Madrid$-6,678

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
40

Single bracket

<=1
32 brackets
<=2
37 brackets
<=3
39 brackets
<=4
39 brackets
<=5
39 brackets
<=8
40 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/18/2026, 8:40:28 PM2 trades$3503 min
2/18/2026, 9:03:32 PM2 trades$1301 min
2/20/2026, 6:38:24 PM1 trades$2500 min
2/21/2026, 9:12:12 PM2 trades$1850 min
2/21/2026, 9:37:00 PM3 trades$3955 min
2/21/2026, 10:02:24 PM1 trades$3000 min
2/22/2026, 12:00:30 AM2 trades$2650 min
2/25/2026, 12:46:26 AM2 trades$1100 min
2/25/2026, 12:51:58 AM3 trades$422 min
2/28/2026, 5:45:23 PM1 trades$9870 min
2/28/2026, 9:41:25 PM6 trades$1,6066 min
3/1/2026, 7:25:17 AM4 trades$3102 min
3/1/2026, 5:07:11 PM3 trades$5582 min
3/3/2026, 3:19:03 PM4 trades$1,3602 min
3/6/2026, 5:11:33 PM3 trades$1,4202 min
3/9/2026, 4:39:01 AM6 trades$1,5745 min
3/9/2026, 8:07:37 PM6 trades$3,0352 min
3/9/2026, 8:27:59 PM1 trades$1,2720 min
3/9/2026, 8:58:41 PM5 trades$2,9981 min
3/10/2026, 4:04:09 PM2 trades$1982 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
02-28
03-31
04-11
04-21
04-30
07-20

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
27.6% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event